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Gridiron Gumbo

Tag: College Football Playoff

  • Bowl Gumbo, Second Stir: Ole Miss Jumps in the Playoff Pot, Texas Falls Out, and Where Every SEC Team Is Headed

    Bowl Gumbo, Second Stir: Ole Miss Jumps in the Playoff Pot, Texas Falls Out, and Where Every SEC Team Is Headed

    Gridiron Gumbo original projections — Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026, after the Oct. 17 games (Week 7). Second stir of the pot; last week’s Early Bowl Gumbo is here. Disclosure: your humble cook still bleeds maroon and rings a cowbell (Mississippi State). State got graded like everybody else, and after Saturday in Baton Rouge, that is not a favor.

    Last week we had four SEC teams in the Playoff Pot. Then the No. 1 team in the country lost at home to an unranked Auburn, Tennessee sat on Alabama for four quarters, and Florida walked into Austin and walked out with a win. The AP’s top team has now lost in back-to-back weeks to unranked opponents, which NCAA.com says has happened only five times ever. (CONFIRMED) So we dumped the whole pot out on the newspaper and started over.

    How we cooked it

    These are our picks, not a copy or an average of anybody else’s bowl projections. Ingredients, all pulled Oct. 20:

    • Records and results through the Oct. 17 games (ESPN standings, cross-checked against the CollegeFootballData.com game log).
    • Ratings: ESPN FPI (updated Oct. 20) and SP+ (via CollegeFootballData.com). Both measure points above an average team.
    • The Gumbo Model: we average each SEC team’s FPI and SP+ rating, give the home team 2.5 points, turn every remaining game into a win probability and simulate the rest of the season 20,000 times. Projected records below are those simulated wins rounded, not a game-by-game “favorite always wins” list (that would have LSU going 10-2, which happens in only 14% of our sims).
    • The AP poll (Oct. 18). The CFP committee’s first rankings don’t come out until Tuesday, Nov. 3, so the AP poll and the ratings stand in for now. (CONFIRMED)

    The rules of the pot (re-checked this week):

    • CFP: Still 12 teams for 2026-27. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get in, plus the highest-ranked champion from the other conferences, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. The top four ranked teams get first-round byes. (CONFIRMED)
    • SEC ladder: The Citrus Bowl takes the best SEC team left after the Playoff. Next is the “pool of six” (ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Las Vegas, Liberty), which the SEC slots with the schools and bowls while avoiding repeat trips. Birmingham and Gasparilla pick after that. Bowl tie-ins were carried over from 2025 for this one season, and 2026 is the SEC’s turn in Las Vegas in its rotation with the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. (CONFIRMED)
    Cartoon critters fighting over a gold trophy in a giant gumbo pot under the words Playoff Pot

    The Playoff Pot (CFP summary)

    • Georgia — SEC champion, top-four seed with a first-round bye. We have Georgia beating Tennessee in Atlanta.
    • Tennessee — at-large after losing the SEC title game. Projected 9-3 in the regular season.
    • Ole Miss — at-large. Projected 9-3. New this week.
    • Alabama — at-large, the last SEC team in. Projected 9-3, and the bubble is right under its feet.
    • First team out: Texas. FPI and SP+ still rate the Longhorns as a top-eight team, but they’re 1-2 in the league. Saturday’s Ole Miss at Texas game is basically a trade: the winner probably takes the spot.

    TAKE: Four SEC teams is our call, same number as last week, with two new names. The SEC has nine teams in the AP Top 25, but the highest is Georgia at No. 5, behind Miami, BYU, Ohio State and Notre Dame. That’s a lot of competition for seven at-large spots, so a fifth SEC team would need chaos somewhere else.

    Who Moved

    • â–² Ole Miss: Citrus → CFP at-large. Beat Missouri 31-3 and jumped to No. 7 in the AP poll. 63% of our sims end with 9 or more wins.
    • â–¼ Texas: CFP at-large → Texas Bowl. Lost to Oklahoma, then 27-24 at home to Florida. Two league losses in a nine-game SEC schedule leaves no room for error.
    • â–² Tennessee: last team in → SEC title game plus a safe at-large spot. Beat Alabama 26-10 and has the league’s second-best path to Atlanta in our sims (34%).
    • â–¼ Alabama: 10-2 with a home playoff game → 9-3 and the last SEC team in. Lost back-to-back games, and our model makes the Tide an underdog at LSU on Nov. 7.
    • â–² LSU: Gator → Citrus. Shut out Mississippi State 31-0. SP+ rates LSU No. 6 in the country, and our model makes the Tigers favorites in all five remaining games.
    • â–² Auburn: Birmingham → Liberty. Won 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia and now projects to 7-5.
    • â–² Florida: Liberty → ReliaQuest. The 27-24 win at Texas gives the Gators wins over Ole Miss, Texas and Auburn.
    • â–¼ Oklahoma: Texas Bowl → Birmingham. Lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky and is 3-3, with six wins a 62% proposition in our sims.

    The Pot, Team by Team

    Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC; AP No. 5)

    Projection: 10-2, SEC champion, top-four CFP seed (bye). â–  STEADY on the destination, down from last week’s 12-0/11-1 on the record.
    The data: Lost 27-24 at home to Auburn. Still the SEC’s highest-rated team in both systems (FPI No. 3, SP+ No. 2). Our sims put Georgia in Atlanta 85% of the time, and it wins out 41% of the time. The toughest remaining game is Nov. 7 at Ole Miss (Georgia 67% in our model). FPI gives them a 78.1% playoff chance.
    TAKE: Kirby Smart’s sideline face Saturday could’ve curdled a pot of milk from across the stadium. Calm down, Athens. Y’all lost one game, not the deed to the house.

    Tennessee (6-1, 3-1; AP No. 11)

    Projection: 9-3, loses the SEC title game to Georgia, CFP at-large. â–² UP from last week’s last-team-in.
    The data: Beat Alabama 26-10. The only loss is 20-17 to Texas. FPI No. 12, SP+ No. 13. Remaining games, with Tennessee’s chance in our model: at South Carolina (63%), Kentucky (76%), at Texas A&M (60%), LSU (43%, its only game as an underdog) and at Vanderbilt (86%). 79% of our sims end with nine or more wins.
    TAKE: Knoxville’s already printing “SEC Champs” shirts in that traffic-cone orange that makes Mawmaw’s eyes water. Josh Heupel, unplug the printer, cher. Atlanta’s still a month off.

    Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 7)

    Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large. â–² UP from the Citrus Bowl.
    The data: Beat Missouri 31-3. The only loss is 52-28 at Florida. FPI No. 11, SP+ No. 14, FPI playoff odds 43.6%. The back half is no picnic: at Texas (31%), Auburn (75%), Georgia (33%), at Oklahoma (61%), Wofford and the Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State (81%). Our projected losses are the Texas and Georgia games. Win either one and this goes from bubble to comfortable.
    TAKE: Grove folks are already pricing December hotel rooms in their Sunday seersucker. Pete Golding, keep ’em off the balcony until the committee actually says something.

    Alabama (5-2, 3-2; AP No. 13)

    Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large (last SEC team in). â–¼ DOWN from 10-2 and a home playoff game.
    The data: Lost 20-17 to Georgia and 26-10 at Tennessee. Wins include 45-17 at Kentucky and 56-23 at Mississippi State. The ratings still love the Tide (FPI No. 6, 49.5% playoff odds; SP+ No. 12). Remaining: Texas A&M (81%), at LSU (39%), at Vanderbilt (91%), Chattanooga and Auburn (82%). A loss in Baton Rouge puts them at 9-3, with the committee doing the math.
    TAKE: Tuscaloosa’s call-in shows are running hotter than a crawfish pot with the lid clamped down. Kalen DeBoer’s gonna need a bigger net for all them complaints.

    LSU (5-2, 2-2; AP No. 18)

    Projection: 8-4, Citrus Bowl. â–² UP from the Gator Bowl.
    The data: Beat Mississippi State 31-0. The losses are 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 at Kentucky. SP+ No. 6 (second in the SEC only to Georgia) and FPI No. 8. Our model makes LSU the favorite in every remaining game (at Auburn 74%, Alabama 61%, Texas 58%, at Tennessee 57%, at Arkansas 92%), but stacking up that many 60-40 games still averages out to about 8.4 wins. Two SEC losses already make the Playoff a long shot (FPI: 28.5%). The highest-rated team left after the Playoff is the obvious Citrus pick.
    TAKE: Ten days ago Death Valley wanted Lane Kiffin’s head on a boudin platter. Now the same callers are booking Orlando condos. Fair-weather fans on the bayou? Never heard of ’em, cher.

    Kentucky (6-1, 4-1; AP No. 12)

    Projection: 8-4, Gator Bowl. â–  STEADY: still a pool-of-six team, but the bowl changes from ReliaQuest to Gator.
    The data: Tied for first, with five straight wins capped by 21-13 at Oklahoma. The only loss was 45-17 to Alabama. But the ratings aren’t buying it: FPI No. 26 and SP+ No. 45, the lowest of the top seven teams in the standings. Remaining: Vanderbilt (81%), at Tennessee (24%), Florida (53%), at Missouri (36%) and Louisville (50%). FPI gives them 39.4% playoff odds. Our blend is more skeptical because SP+ rates them so much lower.
    TAKE: Lexington’s tied for first in the SEC in late October, so every bourbon shop in town is down to the bottom shelf. Will Stein, the raccoon’s still on the bricks, but somebody just turned on the porch light.

    Texas (4-2, 1-2; AP No. 19)

    Projection: 8-4, Texas Bowl. â–¼ DOWN from a CFP at-large.
    The data: Lost 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 at home to Florida, after September wins over Ohio State (24-23) and at Tennessee (20-17). FPI No. 7 (41.0% playoff odds) and SP+ No. 8, so the talent is real. Our model favors Texas in five of six remaining games: Ole Miss (69%), Mississippi State (88%), at Missouri (69%), at LSU (42%), Arkansas (96%) and at Texas A&M (72%). Still, only 47% of our sims reach nine wins. Along with LSU, they’re the best-rated team we have outside the Playoff. Beat Ole Miss Saturday and the two programs likely swap spots.
    TAKE: Steve Sarkisian says everything in Austin is getting evaluated. Mawmaw says start with the seasoning, cher. That budget buys a lot of cayenne.

    Florida (5-2, 3-2; AP No. 20)

    Projection: 8-4, ReliaQuest Bowl. â–² UP from 7-5 and the Liberty Bowl.
    The data: Won 27-24 at Texas. That gives the Gators three résumé wins (Ole Miss 52-28, at Auburn 44-39, at Texas) to go with losses at Missouri (45-17) and vs. South Carolina (38-19). FPI No. 19, SP+ No. 38. Remaining: at Georgia (14%), Oklahoma (58%), at Kentucky (47%), Vanderbilt (84%) and at Florida State (62%).
    TAKE: Gator Nation went from “fire somebody” to “book the bowl trip” in two Saturdays. That’s the fastest mood swing in Florida since the Publix deli ran out of sub rolls. Jon Sumrall’s roux is finally browning.

    Missouri (5-2, 2-2; AP No. 22)

    Projection: 7-5, Music City Bowl. ▼ DOWN a win (8-4 → 7-5), same bowl.
    The data: Lost 31-3 at Ole Miss. Still 4-0 at home. FPI No. 27, SP+ No. 20. Remaining: at Arkansas (77%), Texas (31%), at Georgia (12%), Kentucky (64%) and Oklahoma (61%). Nashville stays an easy drive.
    TAKE: The Show-Me State finally has a demand for Eli Drinkwitz: show us a touchdown from the 2-yard line. Bring a covered dish to Nashville anyway, y’all.

    Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2; receiving votes) (the cook’s team, graded fair)

    Projection: 7-5, Las Vegas Bowl. â–  STEADY on record and bowl, even though the computers now like State less.
    The data: Lost 31-0 at LSU and fell out of the AP Top 25 (was No. 16). FPI dropped to No. 38, the lowest of any SEC team we project to a bowl; SP+ has them No. 47. The early wins still count: at South Carolina 41-34, Missouri 31-24, at Minnesota 38-13. The path to 7-5: Tennessee Tech and Vanderbilt (77%) at home, plus one of two home coin flips, Oklahoma (48%) and Auburn (49%). FPI gives them a 92.2% shot at bowl eligibility.
    TAKE: Starkville’s cowbells went so quiet in Baton Rouge you could hear a crawfish sneeze. Jeff Lebby, when you’re inside the 40, Mawmaw says take the three points and say thank you. (Disclosure: the cook rang his into a pillow all weekend.)

    Auburn (4-2, 2-2; receiving votes)

    Projection: 7-5, Liberty Bowl. â–² UP from 6-6 and the Birmingham Bowl.
    The data: Won 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia with a field goal as time expired. Losses are 44-39 to Florida and 24-14 at Tennessee. FPI No. 21 (96.2% for six wins), SP+ No. 40. The back half is brutal: LSU (26%), at Ole Miss (25%), Arkansas (83%), at Mississippi State (51%), Samford and at Alabama (18%).
    TAKE: Auburn folks rolled Toomer’s so hard after Athens that Lee County is rationing toilet paper like it’s hurricane season. Alex Golesh won’t buy his own supper till Easter.

    Oklahoma (3-3, 1-2)

    Projection: 6-6, Birmingham Bowl. â–¼ DOWN from 7-5 and the Texas Bowl.
    The data: Lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky. The other losses are at Michigan (17-10) and at Georgia (41-13), and the big win is 27-24 over Texas. FPI No. 22, SP+ No. 34. FPI puts six wins at 65.0%, and we have it at 62%. Remaining: at Mississippi State (52%), South Carolina (59%), at Florida (42%), Ole Miss (39%), Texas A&M (57%) and at Missouri (39%).
    TAKE: Last week Sooner Nation was planning a parade. Now Brent Venables’ parade route runs straight to Birmingham, and the band’s down to one kazoo.

    South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)

    Projection: 6-6, Gasparilla Bowl. â–  STEADY.
    The data: Had a week off. The SEC losses are 41-34 to Mississippi State, 49-18 at Alabama and 35-34 to Kentucky, and the win is 38-19 at Florida. FPI No. 29, SP+ No. 32. FPI puts bowl eligibility at 56.9%, and we have it at 62%. Remaining: Tennessee (37%), at Oklahoma (41%), Texas A&M (55%), at Arkansas (72%), Georgia (17%) and at Clemson (62%).
    TAKE: Columbia’s bowl hopes are a 6-6 coin flip, and somehow Gamecock fans already know which ref is gonna blow it. Shane Beamer, keep the visor on and the antacids close.

    Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3)

    Projection: 6-6, bowl TBD (SEC backup slot). â–  STEADY.
    The data: Beat The Citadel 41-0. The SEC losses are to Kentucky (31-21), at LSU (35-6) and at Missouri (27-6). FPI rates them better than their record (No. 20, 61.1% for six wins), and SP+ has them No. 33. They need two wins from at Alabama (19%), at South Carolina (45%), Tennessee (40%), at Oklahoma (43%) and Texas (28%), and they’re the underdog in all five. If all 14 teams get to six wins, the SEC’s tie-ins run out of seats, so A&M lands in a leftover bowl.
    TAKE: College Station’s got the budget of a Houston oil company and the October of a church-league softball team. Mike Elko’s kitchen still smells like burnt roux.

    Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4)

    Projection: 4-8, no bowl. â–  STEADY.
    The data: Four straight losses, the latest 31-21 at home to Arkansas. FPI No. 66 (2.8% bowl odds), SP+ No. 71. They’d need three wins from at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, Alabama, at Florida and Tennessee, and our model doesn’t favor them in any of the five.
    TAKE: Vandy fans ran the bowl math, double-checked it, showed their work, and quietly bought basketball tickets. Clark Lea, at least the library’s open late.

    Arkansas (3-4, 1-3)

    Projection: 4-8, no bowl. â–  STEADY on the destination, up a win from last week’s 3-9.
    The data: Won 31-21 at Vanderbilt for their first SEC win of the year. FPI No. 58 (4.4% bowl odds), SP+ No. 82. They’re the underdog in all five remaining games: Missouri, at Auburn, South Carolina, at Texas and LSU.
    TAKE: Ryan Silverfield got his first SEC win and Fayetteville called the Hogs so loud the cows in Missouri stopped giving milk. In the Ozarks, cher, 4-8 counts as a rebuilding plan with a tailgate.

    The Tally

    4 CFP teams (Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama), plus Citrus (LSU), plus the pool of six (Florida–ReliaQuest, Kentucky–Gator, Texas–Texas Bowl, Missouri–Music City, Mississippi State–Las Vegas, Auburn–Liberty), plus Birmingham (Oklahoma) and Gasparilla (South Carolina), plus Texas A&M in a backup slot. That’s 14 bowl-eligible teams, the same as last week. Vanderbilt and Arkansas stay home.

    Where the computers argue with us: FPI gives Texas (41.0%) and Kentucky (39.4%) playoff odds right next to Ole Miss (43.6%) and Tennessee (44.7%). We went with Ole Miss because of its schedule and SP+. If Texas wins Saturday, we’ll eat the crow, cher. It goes great with rice.

    Games that move the pot this week (Oct. 24): Ole Miss at Texas (a playoff spot is basically on the line), Tennessee at South Carolina, LSU at Auburn, Oklahoma at Mississippi State (a 52-48 coin flip in our model), and Texas A&M at Alabama.

    More from the pot: our Week 7 recap and why Georgia still deserves the SEC crown.

    Sources (data)

    Gridiron Gumbo: SEC football, seasoned in Southwest Louisiana. Projections are our own TAKE built on the data above. Records and ratings are CONFIRMED as of Oct. 20, 2026.

  • Early Bowl Gumbo: Where Every SEC Team Is Headed (If the Roux Don’t Burn)

    Early Bowl Gumbo: Where Every SEC Team Is Headed (If the Roux Don’t Burn)

    Gridiron Gumbo original projections — Oct. 13, 2026, after the Oct. 10 games (ESPN calls it Week 6). Disclosure: your humble cook bleeds maroon and rings a cowbell (Mississippi State). We graded State like everybody else. Mawmaw checked.

    How we cooked it

    These are our picks, not a copy of anybody’s. Ingredients: current overall/SEC records (ESPN standings), ESPN FPI ratings and projected final records/playoff odds, the AP poll, and the actual 2026-27 SEC bowl rules. Note: the CFP committee’s first rankings don’t drop until November, so the AP poll + FPI stand in for now.

    • CFP: 12 teams. Power 4 champs get auto bids, plus the top Group of 6 team; seven at-larges; top four ranked teams get byes.
    • SEC ladder: Citrus Bowl takes the best SEC team left after the CFP. Then the “pool of six” (ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Las Vegas, Liberty) is slotted by the SEC with schools and bowls, avoiding repeat trips. Birmingham and Gasparilla pick after that. 2026 is the SEC’s Las Vegas year in the rotation with Duke’s Mayo. Bowl tie-ins carried over from 2025 for this season.
    Playoff Pot

    The Pot, Team by Team

    Georgia (6-0, 4-0 SEC; AP No. 1)

    Projection: 12-0 / 11-1, SEC champion, top-4 CFP seed (bye). FPI has them No. 2 nationally, projecting 11.8 wins and a 95.8% playoff chance. They already won 20-17 in Tuscaloosa.
    Take: Kirby’s roux is so dark and steady it should come with a warning label. Every other fanbase is just stirring and praying, cher.

    Alabama (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 6)

    Projection: 10-2, CFP at-large, first-round home game. FPI No. 5, 81.8% playoff odds. Losing at home to Georgia doesn’t knock you out of a 12-team field.
    Take: Tide fans are treating one loss like Mawmaw found store-bought boudin in her fridge. Relax, y’all are still eating in December.

    Texas (4-1, 1-1; AP No. 7)

    Projection: 10-2, CFP at-large. FPI No. 6, 74.6% playoff odds. The Red River loss stings, but the early win over Ohio State keeps the résumé strong.
    Take: Austin lost to Oklahoma and acted like somebody put beans in their gumbo. It’s a Texas thing. We’ll allow it.

    Tennessee (5-1, 2-1; AP No. 14)

    Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large (last one in, ~No. 11-12 seed). The SEC’s best playoff odds outside the big three (FPI: 24.4%, 8.4 projected wins). This is our boldest call. They still have to play Alabama and LSU.
    Take: Rocky Top’s offense looks like a crawfish boil with no seasoning. Still gets eaten, but nobody’s bragging about it.

    Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1; AP No. 9)

    Projection: 8-4, Citrus Bowl. Highest AP rank of the non-CFP group, but FPI projects only 7.8 wins because of the back half: Missouri, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and the Egg Bowl.
    Take: Oxford’s tailgate is fancier than a Garden District wedding, but that schedule is a pot of boiling water and the Rebels are the crawfish.

    Kentucky (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 15)

    Projection: 8-4, ReliaQuest Bowl. They have two straight 35-34 overtime wins, including over LSU. FPI still rates them No. 30 and projects 7.9 wins, so we expect some regression. Next up: at Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, Florida, at Missouri, Louisville.
    Take: Lexington’s living on overtime like a man living on gas-station boudin. Delicious, reckless, and the bill comes due eventually.

    LSU (4-2, 1-2; AP No. 22)

    Projection: 8-4, Gator Bowl. FPI’s No. 8 team in the country is the most talented team in this tier, with 7.7 projected wins and 15.4% playoff odds. Two SEC losses already pretty much end any CFP hopes.
    Take: Lane Kiffin’s Year 1 in Baton Rouge is a jambalaya with every expensive ingredient and nobody minding the burner. Death Valley’s already sharpening its call-in-show voice, cher.

    Missouri (5-1, 2-1; AP No. 13)

    Projection: 8-4, Music City Bowl. FPI projects 7.9 wins, and Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss and Oklahoma are still ahead. Nashville is an easy drive for the fan base.
    Take: Mizzou fans still call the SEC “the new neighbors.” Fifteen seasons in, cher. Bring a covered dish already.

    Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1; AP No. 16) (the cook’s team, graded fair)

    Projection: 7-5, Las Vegas Bowl. FPI projects 7.6 wins and rates them No. 27, behind several SEC teams with worse records. We went with the computer and not our hearts. The 56-23 home loss to Alabama is the stain. The trip to LSU on Oct. 17 is the swing game for Jeff Lebby.
    Take: Starkville’s in Vegas with cowbells. The casinos will take every dollar but they’ll never get the ringing out of their ears. (Yes, Mawmaw is biased. She also ranked them seventh, so hush.)

    Oklahoma (3-2, 1-1)

    Projection: 7-5, Texas Bowl. The Red River win is a top-shelf ingredient, but FPI projects 7.0 wins and the back half is rough. A trip to Houston puts the Sooners in a bowl in Texas, which they’ll pretend not to enjoy.
    Take: Sooner Nation’s beat Texas and is already planning the parade. Mawmaw says don’t salt the pot before the water boils.

    Florida (4-2, 2-2)

    Projection: 7-5, Liberty Bowl. They started 4-0 (including 52-28 over Ole Miss), then lost 45-17 at Missouri and 38-19 at home to South Carolina. FPI still projects 6.6 wins with an 84.6% chance at bowl eligibility.
    Take: The Swamp went from top-10 to “check on Gator fans” faster than a pot of rice burns when you walk off. Jon Sumrall’s Year 1 roux needs a whole lotta stirring.

    Auburn (3-2, 1-2)

    Projection: 6-6, Birmingham Bowl. FPI: 6.1 projected wins, 69.4% to reach six. That’s a coin-flip-plus, and Birmingham is right up the road.
    Take: The Plains fanbase would roll Toomer’s for a bowl-eligibility clinch at this point. Low bar, cher, but it’s a bar.

    South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)

    Projection: 6-6, Gasparilla Bowl. The 38-19 win in Gainesville bought Shane Beamer some breathing room. FPI gives them a 57.3% chance at six wins. Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Georgia and Clemson are still on the schedule.
    Take: Columbia’s hot seat cooled down quicker than leftover gumbo in Mawmaw’s deep freeze. Don’t get comfortable. It thaws.

    Texas A&M (3-3, 1-3)

    Projection: 6-6, Bowl TBD (SEC backup slot). They were ranked No. 9 as recently as mid-September, but FPI now projects 5.7 wins (56.8% for six). Once the SEC tie-ins are filled, a sixth win only gets them a leftover spot.
    Take: College Station spent like a Houston oil man and is cooking like a dorm microwave. Mike Elko’s kitchen needs a health inspection.

    Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3)

    Projection: 4-8, no bowl. FPI projects 4.4 wins with a 12.6% chance at bowl eligibility.
    Take: The smartest fanbase in the league has done the math and moved on to basketball. Mawmaw respects a family that knows when the pot’s empty.

    Arkansas (2-4, 0-3)

    Projection: 3-9, no bowl. FPI projects 3.3 wins with a 1.9% chance at bowl eligibility.
    Take: Hog fans are calling the Hogs like they’re calling the coach’s buyout number. Only thing roasting in Fayetteville this fall is the boudin at the tailgate.

    The Tally

    4 CFP teams (Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee) plus 9 tie-in bowls plus Texas A&M in a TBD backup slot = 14 bowl-eligible. Vandy and Arkansas stay home.

    Where we differ from the national guys: most outlets have Ole Miss (and some Kentucky) as the SEC’s fourth playoff team. We picked Tennessee because of FPI’s projected record and playoff odds. Argue with us in the comments, cher.

    Sources (data)

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