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Early Bowl Gumbo: Where Every SEC Team Is Headed (If the Roux Don’t Burn)

Cartoon SEC mascots crowded around a giant gumbo pot full of bowl trophies for Early Bowl Gumbo

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T-Rohn

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Gridiron Gumbo original projections — Oct. 13, 2026, after the Oct. 10 games (ESPN calls it Week 6). Disclosure: your humble cook bleeds maroon and rings a cowbell (Mississippi State). We graded State like everybody else. Mawmaw checked.

How we cooked it

These are our picks, not a copy of anybody’s. Ingredients: current overall/SEC records (ESPN standings), ESPN FPI ratings and projected final records/playoff odds, the AP poll, and the actual 2026-27 SEC bowl rules. Note: the CFP committee’s first rankings don’t drop until November, so the AP poll + FPI stand in for now.

  • CFP: 12 teams. Power 4 champs get auto bids, plus the top Group of 6 team; seven at-larges; top four ranked teams get byes.
  • SEC ladder: Citrus Bowl takes the best SEC team left after the CFP. Then the “pool of six” (ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Las Vegas, Liberty) is slotted by the SEC with schools and bowls, avoiding repeat trips. Birmingham and Gasparilla pick after that. 2026 is the SEC’s Las Vegas year in the rotation with Duke’s Mayo. Bowl tie-ins carried over from 2025 for this season.
Playoff Pot

The Pot, Team by Team

Georgia (6-0, 4-0 SEC; AP No. 1)

Projection: 12-0 / 11-1, SEC champion, top-4 CFP seed (bye). FPI has them No. 2 nationally, projecting 11.8 wins and a 95.8% playoff chance. They already won 20-17 in Tuscaloosa.
Take: Kirby’s roux is so dark and steady it should come with a warning label. Every other fanbase is just stirring and praying, cher.

Alabama (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 6)

Projection: 10-2, CFP at-large, first-round home game. FPI No. 5, 81.8% playoff odds. Losing at home to Georgia doesn’t knock you out of a 12-team field.
Take: Tide fans are treating one loss like Mawmaw found store-bought boudin in her fridge. Relax, y’all are still eating in December.

Texas (4-1, 1-1; AP No. 7)

Projection: 10-2, CFP at-large. FPI No. 6, 74.6% playoff odds. The Red River loss stings, but the early win over Ohio State keeps the résumé strong.
Take: Austin lost to Oklahoma and acted like somebody put beans in their gumbo. It’s a Texas thing. We’ll allow it.

Tennessee (5-1, 2-1; AP No. 14)

Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large (last one in, ~No. 11-12 seed). The SEC’s best playoff odds outside the big three (FPI: 24.4%, 8.4 projected wins). This is our boldest call. They still have to play Alabama and LSU.
Take: Rocky Top’s offense looks like a crawfish boil with no seasoning. Still gets eaten, but nobody’s bragging about it.

Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1; AP No. 9)

Projection: 8-4, Citrus Bowl. Highest AP rank of the non-CFP group, but FPI projects only 7.8 wins because of the back half: Missouri, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and the Egg Bowl.
Take: Oxford’s tailgate is fancier than a Garden District wedding, but that schedule is a pot of boiling water and the Rebels are the crawfish.

Kentucky (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 15)

Projection: 8-4, ReliaQuest Bowl. They have two straight 35-34 overtime wins, including over LSU. FPI still rates them No. 30 and projects 7.9 wins, so we expect some regression. Next up: at Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, Florida, at Missouri, Louisville.
Take: Lexington’s living on overtime like a man living on gas-station boudin. Delicious, reckless, and the bill comes due eventually.

LSU (4-2, 1-2; AP No. 22)

Projection: 8-4, Gator Bowl. FPI’s No. 8 team in the country is the most talented team in this tier, with 7.7 projected wins and 15.4% playoff odds. Two SEC losses already pretty much end any CFP hopes.
Take: Lane Kiffin’s Year 1 in Baton Rouge is a jambalaya with every expensive ingredient and nobody minding the burner. Death Valley’s already sharpening its call-in-show voice, cher.

Missouri (5-1, 2-1; AP No. 13)

Projection: 8-4, Music City Bowl. FPI projects 7.9 wins, and Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss and Oklahoma are still ahead. Nashville is an easy drive for the fan base.
Take: Mizzou fans still call the SEC “the new neighbors.” Fifteen seasons in, cher. Bring a covered dish already.

Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1; AP No. 16) (the cook’s team, graded fair)

Projection: 7-5, Las Vegas Bowl. FPI projects 7.6 wins and rates them No. 27, behind several SEC teams with worse records. We went with the computer and not our hearts. The 56-23 home loss to Alabama is the stain. The trip to LSU on Oct. 17 is the swing game for Jeff Lebby.
Take: Starkville’s in Vegas with cowbells. The casinos will take every dollar but they’ll never get the ringing out of their ears. (Yes, Mawmaw is biased. She also ranked them seventh, so hush.)

Oklahoma (3-2, 1-1)

Projection: 7-5, Texas Bowl. The Red River win is a top-shelf ingredient, but FPI projects 7.0 wins and the back half is rough. A trip to Houston puts the Sooners in a bowl in Texas, which they’ll pretend not to enjoy.
Take: Sooner Nation’s beat Texas and is already planning the parade. Mawmaw says don’t salt the pot before the water boils.

Florida (4-2, 2-2)

Projection: 7-5, Liberty Bowl. They started 4-0 (including 52-28 over Ole Miss), then lost 45-17 at Missouri and 38-19 at home to South Carolina. FPI still projects 6.6 wins with an 84.6% chance at bowl eligibility.
Take: The Swamp went from top-10 to “check on Gator fans” faster than a pot of rice burns when you walk off. Jon Sumrall’s Year 1 roux needs a whole lotta stirring.

Auburn (3-2, 1-2)

Projection: 6-6, Birmingham Bowl. FPI: 6.1 projected wins, 69.4% to reach six. That’s a coin-flip-plus, and Birmingham is right up the road.
Take: The Plains fanbase would roll Toomer’s for a bowl-eligibility clinch at this point. Low bar, cher, but it’s a bar.

South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)

Projection: 6-6, Gasparilla Bowl. The 38-19 win in Gainesville bought Shane Beamer some breathing room. FPI gives them a 57.3% chance at six wins. Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Georgia and Clemson are still on the schedule.
Take: Columbia’s hot seat cooled down quicker than leftover gumbo in Mawmaw’s deep freeze. Don’t get comfortable. It thaws.

Texas A&M (3-3, 1-3)

Projection: 6-6, Bowl TBD (SEC backup slot). They were ranked No. 9 as recently as mid-September, but FPI now projects 5.7 wins (56.8% for six). Once the SEC tie-ins are filled, a sixth win only gets them a leftover spot.
Take: College Station spent like a Houston oil man and is cooking like a dorm microwave. Mike Elko’s kitchen needs a health inspection.

Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3)

Projection: 4-8, no bowl. FPI projects 4.4 wins with a 12.6% chance at bowl eligibility.
Take: The smartest fanbase in the league has done the math and moved on to basketball. Mawmaw respects a family that knows when the pot’s empty.

Arkansas (2-4, 0-3)

Projection: 3-9, no bowl. FPI projects 3.3 wins with a 1.9% chance at bowl eligibility.
Take: Hog fans are calling the Hogs like they’re calling the coach’s buyout number. Only thing roasting in Fayetteville this fall is the boudin at the tailgate.

The Tally

4 CFP teams (Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee) plus 9 tie-in bowls plus Texas A&M in a TBD backup slot = 14 bowl-eligible. Vandy and Arkansas stay home.

Where we differ from the national guys: most outlets have Ole Miss (and some Kentucky) as the SEC’s fourth playoff team. We picked Tennessee because of FPI’s projected record and playoff odds. Argue with us in the comments, cher.

Sources (data)

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