Subhead: With two regular-season weeks left, the LHSAA’s own power-rating sheet puts a crowd of Southwest Louisiana teams within a few tenths of a point of the cut. Here’s who’s sweating, who isn’t, and why a loss to an unbeaten team can actually move a number up.
By T-Rohn | Gridiron Gumbo | Oct. 24, 2026
REPORTED: facts per the LHSAA’s official power-rating reports and 2026 football bulletin and other published sources (see Sources at the end)
The scoreboard tells you who won Friday. The LHSAA’s power-rating sheet tells you whether it’s going to matter in November. For DeRidder and St. Louis Catholic, that question gets its first real test Thursday, Oct. 29, when the two meet at St. Louis Catholic (7 p.m. kickoff).1
That sheet got its newest update at 12:02 p.m. Saturday, with Friday’s results added, and it says something the standings don’t. Southwest Louisiana has a whole row of teams sitting right near the playoff cutoff, and two of them, DeRidder and St. Louis Catholic, go into that game with both of their numbers on the table.
TAKE (joke): Southwest Louisiana will argue about a hundredth of a point the way it argues about roux, boudin and who has the best cracklins: loudly, with total confidence and without a calculator.
One more thing makes Thursday matter: it’s a District 3-3A game. DeRidder is 3-1 in district and St. Louis Catholic is 2-2.1 Jennings, at 5-0, has already clinched at least a share of the title (our standings box, Gridiron Gumbo math) and holds a 36-31 win over DeRidder. TAKE: that makes second place and the power rating the realistic road for both teams.
One catch: they’re in different brackets. DeRidder is in Non-Select Division II. St. Louis Catholic is in Select Division III. So Thursday isn’t a straight swap where one team’s gain is the other’s loss. Both teams can stay in the field. Both can also slide toward the cutoff. It’s one game with two separate bubbles riding on it.
Think of it as a crawfish boil with two pots on one burner.
First, how this works (the short version)
Every Louisiana bracket is filled the same way. Each certified district champion is in automatically. Every other spot goes to the highest power ratings, and the power rating seeds everybody, champions included, according to PrepRank’s explainer of the LHSAA handbook.2 The four Non-Select divisions take 28 teams each. The four Select divisions take 24.
TAKE (joke): Twenty-eight spots, twenty-four spots, a decimal point and a handbook section number. It’s the only gumbo recipe that comes with footnotes.
The formula itself is printed in the LHSAA’s 2026 football bulletin (handbook Section 14.12). Each game is worth:
- 10 points for a win, 5 for a tie, 0 for a loss. The score itself never enters the formula, so a squeaker and a rout earn the same 10.
- Plus the opponent’s winning percentage times 10. Beat (or lose to) an 8-0 team and that game adds 10.
- Plus 2 points per division “up” when the opponent is bigger. PrepRank reads LHSAA’s sheets as giving those only when the opponent is higher in both class and division.
Add up the games, divide by games played, and round to two decimals. That’s the number.
Two things follow from that. First, a team’s number can change on a weekend it doesn’t play, because every opponent’s record is baked in and those records change every Friday. Second, a loss to an unbeaten team can be worth more than your current average. Hold that thought; it matters for Kinder.
One more date worth circling: Saturday, Oct. 24, is the LHSAA’s deadline to add games to the schedule for power-rating purposes.3 The menu is set. Nobody’s ordering off it now.
The Bubble Bowl: DeRidder at St. Louis Catholic, Thursday, Oct. 29
DeRidder (5-3, 3-1 in District 3-3A) sits 24th of 44 in Non-Select Division II at 10.52.4, 1 That’s four spots inside the 28-team cutoff, but the gap is thin. Wossman holds the 28th spot at 9.97. Iota is 29th at 9.89.
The Dragons got there mostly by winning. Their strength factor, the LHSAA’s measure of schedule difficulty (Section 14.13; PrepRank says it also breaks certain ties), is 6.00, which ranks 43rd of the 44 teams in the division. Their five wins, the latest a 24-20 win at Kinder on Friday (our recap), are doing the heavy lifting.
Coach Brad Parmley put it in plain terms before the season. The goal, he said in August, is “to be at our best when it matters the most.” He also described “a tough schedule, a tough district.”5
St. Louis Catholic (3-5, 2-2 in District 3-3A) is 22nd of 37 in Select Division III at 9.46, with the 24-team cutoff at Fisher, 8.80.6, 1 That’s a 3-5 team two spots inside the field, and there’s a reason.
The Saints opened with Sulphur and Barbe, both Division I schools. Under PrepRank’s reading of the formula, a Division III team playing a Division I team picks up 4 play-up points, win or lose. Coach Chris Truax told KPLC on Oct. 7 that he likes to “play up in levels” so the Saints are “prepared” when district play arrives.7 KPLC’s story doesn’t quote him on the rating formula. The extra points are a side effect of the schedule, not a goal he described.
TAKE (our math): the sheet’s number checks out. Sulphur and Barbe are worth 4 play-up points each, and LaGrange (4A, Division II, one division up from the Saints) adds 2 more. Add those to the eight games on the sheet and you get exactly 9.46. Without the LaGrange bonus, the rating would be closer to 9.21. Two Division I schools and a Division II school on the front end of the schedule are the reason a 3-5 team is sitting inside the field.
The Saints are coming off a 42-35 win at Washington-Marion (our recap).
What Thursday could do (TAKE: Gridiron Gumbo math, holding every other result on today’s sheet constant):
| If it wins Thursday | If it loses Thursday | |
|---|---|---|
| DeRidder (24th, 10.52) | about 10.83, which would rank 23rd on today’s sheet | about 9.84, which would rank 29th, outside the 28-team cutoff |
| St. Louis Catholic (22nd, 9.46) | about 10.14, which would rank 19th | about 9.15, still 22nd and still inside |
How the what-if math works (TAKE): each estimate uses (current rating ร 8 + the new game’s points) รท 9, because each of these teams has eight games entered on the LHSAA sheet. A team with fewer games entered would work out differently, since both the divisor and the weight on its current rating would change.
Here’s why the table isn’t symmetrical. DeRidder’s average is high enough that a loss to a 3-5 team pulls it down hard. St. Louis Catholic’s average is low enough that even a loss to a 6-3 team barely dents it, because DeRidder’s record still props up that game.
TAKE (joke): It’s the only table in Southwest Louisiana that gets read more carefully than a menu on the first cool night of fall: for the prices, for the fine print and for what the other table ordered.
Neither season ends Thursday. DeRidder closes against Iowa on Nov. 5. St. Louis Catholic finishes at Jennings on Nov. 6.1 Those games move numbers too. The district race is its own story, and we keep that one in our standings box.
The rest of the bubble
Sam Houston (3-5), Non-Select Division I: 25th of 36, 10.16. The cutoff (28th) is Central Lafourche at 9.76. The Broncos have played the toughest schedule in the division by the LHSAA’s strength factor (10.00, highest among the 36 teams), and two of their five losses came by a combined four points: 34-31 to East Ascension and 55-54 at Sulphur.1 Sam Houston plays St. Thomas More (6-2, 7th in Select Division I) Oct. 30 and New Iberia Nov. 6. TAKE (our math): a win over St. Thomas More would push the Broncos to about 10.88, roughly 18th on today’s sheet. A loss would drop them to about 9.90, about fourteen-hundredths above where the cutoff sits today.
Kinder (1-7), Non-Select Division III: 27th of 42, 9.13. Yes, 1-7 and inside the cutoff. The Yellowjackets’ strength factor (8.38) ranks third in the division. Their schedule has included Eunice (8-0), Lake Charles College Prep (7-1 on the LHSAA sheet), Welsh and Lake Arthur.1 Next up is Notre Dame (8-0, No. 1 in Select Division III) at Kinder on Oct. 30,8 then Basile on Nov. 6. TAKE (our math): because Notre Dame is unbeaten, even a loss to the Pioneers would add a 10-point game, nudging Kinder up to about 9.23 (26th today). A win would mean about 10.21. That’s the formula, not a pep talk.
TAKE (joke): In this formula, an unbeaten opponent is the cousin who shows up unannounced with a casserole: alarming at the door, useful by the time the math is done.
Oakdale (2-6), Non-Select Division III: 25th, 9.38. The Warriors lost 42-40 to Avoyelles on Friday (our recap) and still sit three spots inside. They host Holy Savior Menard on Oct. 30 and play at Port Barre on Nov. 5.1 Keep an eye on that district race, too. If a team from outside the top 28 wins its district, it’s in automatically, and each of those bumps the lowest at-large team. TAKE: in Non-Select Division III right now, the teams that would feel that first are at 27th and 28th: Kinder and Many (9.09), with Oakdale two spots above.
DeQuincy (2-6), Non-Select Division IV: 29th of 40, 9.00. The Tigers are three-hundredths of a point behind East Iberville (9.03) for the 28th spot after a 41-0 win over Pickering (our recap). They play at Sacred Heart (8-0, 3rd in Select Division IV) on Oct. 30 and host Rosepine (7-1) on Nov. 6.1, 9 TAKE (our math): if Sacred Heart is still unbeaten after that game, even a loss there would lift DeQuincy to about 9.11, which would edge past today’s 28th-place number by eight-hundredths. A win would mean about 10.10.
That’s not a typo. In this formula, the toughest game left on your schedule can be your best rating game.
Iota (4-4), Non-Select Division II: 29th, 9.89, 0.08 behind Wossman for the last spot. The Bulldogs have won three straight, and their defense has been a different unit lately. We dug into that in today’s other story.
Washington-Marion (1-7), Select Division II: 29th of 34, 7.50. The 24th spot is The Willow School at 8.51. Washington-Marion plays at Iowa on Oct. 29 and hosts Westlake on Nov. 6.9
Comfortable, for now
Not everybody needs a calculator. On the LHSAA sheet as of its 12:02 p.m. Saturday update, these Southwest Louisiana teams sit well inside their cutoffs:
- Non-Select Division I: Barbe (2nd, 14.46). Sulphur (18th, 10.78) is inside but has more work to do than Barbe.
- Non-Select Division II: Leesville (6th, 13.15), Iowa (12th, 12.10).
- Non-Select Division III: Jennings (3rd, 13.17), Rosepine (6th, 12.66), Church Point (14th, 11.50), South Beauregard (19th, 10.70).
- Non-Select Division IV: Vinton (3rd, 14.59), Grand Lake (8th, 12.71), Lake Arthur (9th, 12.69), Welsh (11th, 12.41), Elton (16th, 11.59), East Beauregard (19th, 10.73), Merryville (21st, 10.06).
- Select: Lake Charles College Prep (3rd in Division II, 13.83) and Notre Dame (1st in Division III, 15.86).
Merryville’s spot is the shakiest of that group. It’s 1.03 above today’s 28th place.
TAKE (joke): Being the shakiest of the comfortable is like being the coldest person in Louisiana in January: technically a complaint, practically a light jacket.
The fine print
This sheet is a snapshot, and it still has gaps. Schools enter their own scores into the LHSAA system. The 12:02 p.m. update picked up most of Friday’s results (Leesville now shows 7-1 after beating LaGrange), but not every one: Church Point, for example, still shows 5-2 on the sheet, while PrepRank lists the Friday win over Crowley that would make it 6-2. A few teams still show only seven games, which matters for the what-if math above. Every number in this story will move as those scores post and as opponents keep playing.
Our “what if” math also holds everybody else still, which nobody in Louisiana has ever done on a Friday night. Treat it as a direction, not a seeding forecast. PrepRank, an independent site that recomputes the formula as scores post, had DeRidder at 10.00 on Saturday, about half a point below the LHSAA sheet’s 10.52, and slotted the Dragons 27th by rating instead of 24th. TAKE: the gap appears to trace to DeRidder’s Sept. 18 game against Newton, Texas, an out-of-state team whose record the two sites seem to carry differently (Newton is 5-2 on MaxPreps). We can’t see how either one treats it. If the LHSAA sheet were updated to Newton’s MaxPreps record, DeRidder’s number would move to about 10.58. The LHSAA’s own sheet is the one that counts, and that’s what we used.
District first-place teams have to be certified by Friday, Nov. 6, and the regular season ends Saturday, Nov. 7. Bi-district games are Nov. 12-14.3
Until then, every decimal is worth arguing about at the gas station. Bring a pencil.
TAKE (joke): Bring two pencils. The second one is for the guy at the gas station who has a different decimal and will not be moved.
Spot a score the LHSAA sheet is missing? Send it to Gridiron Gumbo. T-Rohn is keeping score.
Sources
- MaxPreps schedules: DeRidder https://www.maxpreps.com/la/deridder/deridder-dragons/football/schedule/ ; St. Louis Catholic https://www.maxpreps.com/la/lake-charles/st-louis-catholic-saints/football/schedule/ ; Sam Houston https://www.maxpreps.com/la/lake-charles/sam-houston-broncos/football/schedule/ ; Kinder https://www.maxpreps.com/la/kinder/kinder-yellowjackets/football/schedule/ ; Oakdale https://www.maxpreps.com/la/oakdale/oakdale-warriors/football/schedule/ ; DeQuincy https://www.maxpreps.com/la/dequincy/dequincy-tigers/football/schedule/ (records, district records, scores, remaining games; DeRidder at St. Louis Catholic listed Thu., Oct. 29, 7 p.m. on both the DeRidder and St. Louis Catholic schedules) โฉ Back to story
- PrepRank, “How LHSAA Football Power Ratings Are Calculated”: https://prep-rank.com/explainers/lhsaa-football-power-ratings (28/24 bracket sizes, Section 14.9; district champions automatic, Section 14.10; seeding, Section 14.11.1; play-up reading: 2 points per division, only when higher in both class and division) โฉ Back to story
- LHSAA, 2026 Football General Information Bulletin: https://www.lhsaa.org/siteuploads/lhsaa/1433_pdf_2026-football-general-info-bulletin.pdf (Section 14.12 formula, Section 14.13 strength factor; Oct. 24 deadline to add games for power-rating purposes; regular season ends Nov. 7; district certification due Nov. 6; playoff dates) โฉ Back to story
- LHSAA, Non-Select Football Power Ratings by Division, “As of Date: 10/24/2026 12:02:42 PM”: https://www.lhsaaonline.org/rpt/FBNonSelectbyDivisionPR.html (all Non-Select ranks, ratings, strength factors and W-L used above; Leesville shown 7-1) โฉ Back to story
- KPLC, Ryan Blakely and Ben Rickevicius, “2026 Two-A-Days: DeRidder Dragons,” Aug. 18, 2026: https://www.kplctv.com/2026/08/18/2026-two-a-days-deridder-dragons/ (Parmley quotes) โฉ Back to story
- LHSAA, Select Football Power Ratings by Division, same timestamp: https://www.lhsaaonline.org/rpt/FBSelectbyDivisionPR.html (SLC 22nd, 9.46; Fisher 24th, 8.80; Notre Dame 1st, 15.86; LCCP 3rd Div. II; W-M 29th, 7.50; The Willow School 24th, 8.51; Sacred Heart 3rd Div. IV, 8-0; St. Thomas More 7th Div. I, 6-2) โฉ Back to story
- KPLC, Ben Rickevicius, “TDL Week 6 Game of the Week Preview: St. Louis Catholic Saints,” published Oct. 7, 2026 at 8:03 p.m. CDT (the URL carries 2026/10/08): https://www.kplctv.com/2026/10/08/tdl-week-6-game-week-preview-st-louis-catholic-saints/ (Truax “play up in levels” and “prepared” fragments) โฉ Back to story
- The Advocate, Week 8 Acadiana-area scores and schedules, Oct. 23, 2026: https://www.theadvocate.com/acadiana/sports/high_schools/week-8-high-school-football-scores-reported-stats-schedules-for-acadiana-area/article_0de41fd1-c13c-4c11-b5a1-46151d9493fc.html (“Notre Dame at Kinder on Friday” Oct. 30) โฉ Back to story
- PrepRank team pages (unofficial; DeRidder rating field updated 9:18 a.m. CDT Oct. 24, page checked about 12:15 p.m. CDT): DeRidder https://www.prep-rank.com/schools/deridder/football (10.00; 27th by rating; next game Thu., Oct. 29 vs. St. Louis Catholic) ; St. Louis Catholic https://www.prep-rank.com/schools/st-louis-catholic/football ; Sam Houston https://www.prep-rank.com/schools/sam-houston/football ; DeQuincy https://www.prep-rank.com/schools/dequincy/football ; Washington-Marion https://www.prep-rank.com/schools/washington-marion/football (remaining schedules) โฉ Back to story
- KPLC, TDL Week 8 scores: https://www.kplctv.com/2026/10/22/tdl-week-8-scores-highlights/ (Friday finals)
Gridiron Gumbo internal links: DeRidder 24, Kinder 20 (post 2092); St. Louis Catholic 42, W-M 35 (2088); Avoyelles 42, Oakdale 40 (2096); DeQuincy 41, Pickering 0 (2090); standings box (1937)











