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  • Bowl Gumbo, Second Stir: Ole Miss Jumps in the Playoff Pot, Texas Falls Out, and Where Every SEC Team Is Headed

    Bowl Gumbo, Second Stir: Ole Miss Jumps in the Playoff Pot, Texas Falls Out, and Where Every SEC Team Is Headed

    Gridiron Gumbo original projections — Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026, after the Oct. 17 games (Week 7). Second stir of the pot; last week’s Early Bowl Gumbo is here. Disclosure: your humble cook still bleeds maroon and rings a cowbell (Mississippi State). State got graded like everybody else, and after Saturday in Baton Rouge, that is not a favor.

    Last week we had four SEC teams in the Playoff Pot. Then the No. 1 team in the country lost at home to an unranked Auburn, Tennessee sat on Alabama for four quarters, and Florida walked into Austin and walked out with a win. The AP’s top team has now lost in back-to-back weeks to unranked opponents, which NCAA.com says has happened only five times ever. (CONFIRMED) So we dumped the whole pot out on the newspaper and started over.

    How we cooked it

    These are our picks, not a copy or an average of anybody else’s bowl projections. Ingredients, all pulled Oct. 20:

    • Records and results through the Oct. 17 games (ESPN standings, cross-checked against the CollegeFootballData.com game log).
    • Ratings: ESPN FPI (updated Oct. 20) and SP+ (via CollegeFootballData.com). Both measure points above an average team.
    • The Gumbo Model: we average each SEC team’s FPI and SP+ rating, give the home team 2.5 points, turn every remaining game into a win probability and simulate the rest of the season 20,000 times. Projected records below are those simulated wins rounded, not a game-by-game “favorite always wins” list (that would have LSU going 10-2, which happens in only 14% of our sims).
    • The AP poll (Oct. 18). The CFP committee’s first rankings don’t come out until Tuesday, Nov. 3, so the AP poll and the ratings stand in for now. (CONFIRMED)

    The rules of the pot (re-checked this week):

    • CFP: Still 12 teams for 2026-27. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get in, plus the highest-ranked champion from the other conferences, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. The top four ranked teams get first-round byes. (CONFIRMED)
    • SEC ladder: The Citrus Bowl takes the best SEC team left after the Playoff. Next is the “pool of six” (ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Las Vegas, Liberty), which the SEC slots with the schools and bowls while avoiding repeat trips. Birmingham and Gasparilla pick after that. Bowl tie-ins were carried over from 2025 for this one season, and 2026 is the SEC’s turn in Las Vegas in its rotation with the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. (CONFIRMED)
    Cartoon critters fighting over a gold trophy in a giant gumbo pot under the words Playoff Pot

    The Playoff Pot (CFP summary)

    • Georgia — SEC champion, top-four seed with a first-round bye. We have Georgia beating Tennessee in Atlanta.
    • Tennessee — at-large after losing the SEC title game. Projected 9-3 in the regular season.
    • Ole Miss — at-large. Projected 9-3. New this week.
    • Alabama — at-large, the last SEC team in. Projected 9-3, and the bubble is right under its feet.
    • First team out: Texas. FPI and SP+ still rate the Longhorns as a top-eight team, but they’re 1-2 in the league. Saturday’s Ole Miss at Texas game is basically a trade: the winner probably takes the spot.

    TAKE: Four SEC teams is our call, same number as last week, with two new names. The SEC has nine teams in the AP Top 25, but the highest is Georgia at No. 5, behind Miami, BYU, Ohio State and Notre Dame. That’s a lot of competition for seven at-large spots, so a fifth SEC team would need chaos somewhere else.

    Who Moved

    • ▲ Ole Miss: Citrus → CFP at-large. Beat Missouri 31-3 and jumped to No. 7 in the AP poll. 63% of our sims end with 9 or more wins.
    • ▼ Texas: CFP at-large → Texas Bowl. Lost to Oklahoma, then 27-24 at home to Florida. Two league losses in a nine-game SEC schedule leaves no room for error.
    • ▲ Tennessee: last team in → SEC title game plus a safe at-large spot. Beat Alabama 26-10 and has the league’s second-best path to Atlanta in our sims (34%).
    • ▼ Alabama: 10-2 with a home playoff game → 9-3 and the last SEC team in. Lost back-to-back games, and our model makes the Tide an underdog at LSU on Nov. 7.
    • ▲ LSU: Gator → Citrus. Shut out Mississippi State 31-0. SP+ rates LSU No. 6 in the country, and our model makes the Tigers favorites in all five remaining games.
    • ▲ Auburn: Birmingham → Liberty. Won 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia and now projects to 7-5.
    • ▲ Florida: Liberty → ReliaQuest. The 27-24 win at Texas gives the Gators wins over Ole Miss, Texas and Auburn.
    • ▼ Oklahoma: Texas Bowl → Birmingham. Lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky and is 3-3, with six wins a 62% proposition in our sims.

    The Pot, Team by Team

    Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC; AP No. 5)

    Projection: 10-2, SEC champion, top-four CFP seed (bye). ■ STEADY on the destination, down from last week’s 12-0/11-1 on the record.
    The data: Lost 27-24 at home to Auburn. Still the SEC’s highest-rated team in both systems (FPI No. 3, SP+ No. 2). Our sims put Georgia in Atlanta 85% of the time, and it wins out 41% of the time. The toughest remaining game is Nov. 7 at Ole Miss (Georgia 67% in our model). FPI gives them a 78.1% playoff chance.
    TAKE: Kirby Smart’s sideline face Saturday could’ve curdled a pot of milk from across the stadium. Calm down, Athens. Y’all lost one game, not the deed to the house.

    Tennessee (6-1, 3-1; AP No. 11)

    Projection: 9-3, loses the SEC title game to Georgia, CFP at-large. ▲ UP from last week’s last-team-in.
    The data: Beat Alabama 26-10. The only loss is 20-17 to Texas. FPI No. 12, SP+ No. 13. Remaining games, with Tennessee’s chance in our model: at South Carolina (63%), Kentucky (76%), at Texas A&M (60%), LSU (43%, its only game as an underdog) and at Vanderbilt (86%). 79% of our sims end with nine or more wins.
    TAKE: Knoxville’s already printing “SEC Champs” shirts in that traffic-cone orange that makes Mawmaw’s eyes water. Josh Heupel, unplug the printer, cher. Atlanta’s still a month off.

    Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 7)

    Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large. ▲ UP from the Citrus Bowl.
    The data: Beat Missouri 31-3. The only loss is 52-28 at Florida. FPI No. 11, SP+ No. 14, FPI playoff odds 43.6%. The back half is no picnic: at Texas (31%), Auburn (75%), Georgia (33%), at Oklahoma (61%), Wofford and the Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State (81%). Our projected losses are the Texas and Georgia games. Win either one and this goes from bubble to comfortable.
    TAKE: Grove folks are already pricing December hotel rooms in their Sunday seersucker. Pete Golding, keep ’em off the balcony until the committee actually says something.

    Alabama (5-2, 3-2; AP No. 13)

    Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large (last SEC team in). ▼ DOWN from 10-2 and a home playoff game.
    The data: Lost 20-17 to Georgia and 26-10 at Tennessee. Wins include 45-17 at Kentucky and 56-23 at Mississippi State. The ratings still love the Tide (FPI No. 6, 49.5% playoff odds; SP+ No. 12). Remaining: Texas A&M (81%), at LSU (39%), at Vanderbilt (91%), Chattanooga and Auburn (82%). A loss in Baton Rouge puts them at 9-3, with the committee doing the math.
    TAKE: Tuscaloosa’s call-in shows are running hotter than a crawfish pot with the lid clamped down. Kalen DeBoer’s gonna need a bigger net for all them complaints.

    LSU (5-2, 2-2; AP No. 18)

    Projection: 8-4, Citrus Bowl. ▲ UP from the Gator Bowl.
    The data: Beat Mississippi State 31-0. The losses are 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 at Kentucky. SP+ No. 6 (second in the SEC only to Georgia) and FPI No. 8. Our model makes LSU the favorite in every remaining game (at Auburn 74%, Alabama 61%, Texas 58%, at Tennessee 57%, at Arkansas 92%), but stacking up that many 60-40 games still averages out to about 8.4 wins. Two SEC losses already make the Playoff a long shot (FPI: 28.5%). The highest-rated team left after the Playoff is the obvious Citrus pick.
    TAKE: Ten days ago Death Valley wanted Lane Kiffin’s head on a boudin platter. Now the same callers are booking Orlando condos. Fair-weather fans on the bayou? Never heard of ’em, cher.

    Kentucky (6-1, 4-1; AP No. 12)

    Projection: 8-4, Gator Bowl. ■ STEADY: still a pool-of-six team, but the bowl changes from ReliaQuest to Gator.
    The data: Tied for first, with five straight wins capped by 21-13 at Oklahoma. The only loss was 45-17 to Alabama. But the ratings aren’t buying it: FPI No. 26 and SP+ No. 45, the lowest of the top seven teams in the standings. Remaining: Vanderbilt (81%), at Tennessee (24%), Florida (53%), at Missouri (36%) and Louisville (50%). FPI gives them 39.4% playoff odds. Our blend is more skeptical because SP+ rates them so much lower.
    TAKE: Lexington’s tied for first in the SEC in late October, so every bourbon shop in town is down to the bottom shelf. Will Stein, the raccoon’s still on the bricks, but somebody just turned on the porch light.

    Texas (4-2, 1-2; AP No. 19)

    Projection: 8-4, Texas Bowl. ▼ DOWN from a CFP at-large.
    The data: Lost 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 at home to Florida, after September wins over Ohio State (24-23) and at Tennessee (20-17). FPI No. 7 (41.0% playoff odds) and SP+ No. 8, so the talent is real. Our model favors Texas in five of six remaining games: Ole Miss (69%), Mississippi State (88%), at Missouri (69%), at LSU (42%), Arkansas (96%) and at Texas A&M (72%). Still, only 47% of our sims reach nine wins. Along with LSU, they’re the best-rated team we have outside the Playoff. Beat Ole Miss Saturday and the two programs likely swap spots.
    TAKE: Steve Sarkisian says everything in Austin is getting evaluated. Mawmaw says start with the seasoning, cher. That budget buys a lot of cayenne.

    Florida (5-2, 3-2; AP No. 20)

    Projection: 8-4, ReliaQuest Bowl. ▲ UP from 7-5 and the Liberty Bowl.
    The data: Won 27-24 at Texas. That gives the Gators three résumé wins (Ole Miss 52-28, at Auburn 44-39, at Texas) to go with losses at Missouri (45-17) and vs. South Carolina (38-19). FPI No. 19, SP+ No. 38. Remaining: at Georgia (14%), Oklahoma (58%), at Kentucky (47%), Vanderbilt (84%) and at Florida State (62%).
    TAKE: Gator Nation went from “fire somebody” to “book the bowl trip” in two Saturdays. That’s the fastest mood swing in Florida since the Publix deli ran out of sub rolls. Jon Sumrall’s roux is finally browning.

    Missouri (5-2, 2-2; AP No. 22)

    Projection: 7-5, Music City Bowl. ▼ DOWN a win (8-4 → 7-5), same bowl.
    The data: Lost 31-3 at Ole Miss. Still 4-0 at home. FPI No. 27, SP+ No. 20. Remaining: at Arkansas (77%), Texas (31%), at Georgia (12%), Kentucky (64%) and Oklahoma (61%). Nashville stays an easy drive.
    TAKE: The Show-Me State finally has a demand for Eli Drinkwitz: show us a touchdown from the 2-yard line. Bring a covered dish to Nashville anyway, y’all.

    Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2; receiving votes) (the cook’s team, graded fair)

    Projection: 7-5, Las Vegas Bowl. ■ STEADY on record and bowl, even though the computers now like State less.
    The data: Lost 31-0 at LSU and fell out of the AP Top 25 (was No. 16). FPI dropped to No. 38, the lowest of any SEC team we project to a bowl; SP+ has them No. 47. The early wins still count: at South Carolina 41-34, Missouri 31-24, at Minnesota 38-13. The path to 7-5: Tennessee Tech and Vanderbilt (77%) at home, plus one of two home coin flips, Oklahoma (48%) and Auburn (49%). FPI gives them a 92.2% shot at bowl eligibility.
    TAKE: Starkville’s cowbells went so quiet in Baton Rouge you could hear a crawfish sneeze. Jeff Lebby, when you’re inside the 40, Mawmaw says take the three points and say thank you. (Disclosure: the cook rang his into a pillow all weekend.)

    Auburn (4-2, 2-2; receiving votes)

    Projection: 7-5, Liberty Bowl. ▲ UP from 6-6 and the Birmingham Bowl.
    The data: Won 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia with a field goal as time expired. Losses are 44-39 to Florida and 24-14 at Tennessee. FPI No. 21 (96.2% for six wins), SP+ No. 40. The back half is brutal: LSU (26%), at Ole Miss (25%), Arkansas (83%), at Mississippi State (51%), Samford and at Alabama (18%).
    TAKE: Auburn folks rolled Toomer’s so hard after Athens that Lee County is rationing toilet paper like it’s hurricane season. Alex Golesh won’t buy his own supper till Easter.

    Oklahoma (3-3, 1-2)

    Projection: 6-6, Birmingham Bowl. ▼ DOWN from 7-5 and the Texas Bowl.
    The data: Lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky. The other losses are at Michigan (17-10) and at Georgia (41-13), and the big win is 27-24 over Texas. FPI No. 22, SP+ No. 34. FPI puts six wins at 65.0%, and we have it at 62%. Remaining: at Mississippi State (52%), South Carolina (59%), at Florida (42%), Ole Miss (39%), Texas A&M (57%) and at Missouri (39%).
    TAKE: Last week Sooner Nation was planning a parade. Now Brent Venables’ parade route runs straight to Birmingham, and the band’s down to one kazoo.

    South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)

    Projection: 6-6, Gasparilla Bowl. ■ STEADY.
    The data: Had a week off. The SEC losses are 41-34 to Mississippi State, 49-18 at Alabama and 35-34 to Kentucky, and the win is 38-19 at Florida. FPI No. 29, SP+ No. 32. FPI puts bowl eligibility at 56.9%, and we have it at 62%. Remaining: Tennessee (37%), at Oklahoma (41%), Texas A&M (55%), at Arkansas (72%), Georgia (17%) and at Clemson (62%).
    TAKE: Columbia’s bowl hopes are a 6-6 coin flip, and somehow Gamecock fans already know which ref is gonna blow it. Shane Beamer, keep the visor on and the antacids close.

    Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3)

    Projection: 6-6, bowl TBD (SEC backup slot). ■ STEADY.
    The data: Beat The Citadel 41-0. The SEC losses are to Kentucky (31-21), at LSU (35-6) and at Missouri (27-6). FPI rates them better than their record (No. 20, 61.1% for six wins), and SP+ has them No. 33. They need two wins from at Alabama (19%), at South Carolina (45%), Tennessee (40%), at Oklahoma (43%) and Texas (28%), and they’re the underdog in all five. If all 14 teams get to six wins, the SEC’s tie-ins run out of seats, so A&M lands in a leftover bowl.
    TAKE: College Station’s got the budget of a Houston oil company and the October of a church-league softball team. Mike Elko’s kitchen still smells like burnt roux.

    Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4)

    Projection: 4-8, no bowl. ■ STEADY.
    The data: Four straight losses, the latest 31-21 at home to Arkansas. FPI No. 66 (2.8% bowl odds), SP+ No. 71. They’d need three wins from at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, Alabama, at Florida and Tennessee, and our model doesn’t favor them in any of the five.
    TAKE: Vandy fans ran the bowl math, double-checked it, showed their work, and quietly bought basketball tickets. Clark Lea, at least the library’s open late.

    Arkansas (3-4, 1-3)

    Projection: 4-8, no bowl. ■ STEADY on the destination, up a win from last week’s 3-9.
    The data: Won 31-21 at Vanderbilt for their first SEC win of the year. FPI No. 58 (4.4% bowl odds), SP+ No. 82. They’re the underdog in all five remaining games: Missouri, at Auburn, South Carolina, at Texas and LSU.
    TAKE: Ryan Silverfield got his first SEC win and Fayetteville called the Hogs so loud the cows in Missouri stopped giving milk. In the Ozarks, cher, 4-8 counts as a rebuilding plan with a tailgate.

    The Tally

    4 CFP teams (Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama), plus Citrus (LSU), plus the pool of six (Florida–ReliaQuest, Kentucky–Gator, Texas–Texas Bowl, Missouri–Music City, Mississippi State–Las Vegas, Auburn–Liberty), plus Birmingham (Oklahoma) and Gasparilla (South Carolina), plus Texas A&M in a backup slot. That’s 14 bowl-eligible teams, the same as last week. Vanderbilt and Arkansas stay home.

    Where the computers argue with us: FPI gives Texas (41.0%) and Kentucky (39.4%) playoff odds right next to Ole Miss (43.6%) and Tennessee (44.7%). We went with Ole Miss because of its schedule and SP+. If Texas wins Saturday, we’ll eat the crow, cher. It goes great with rice.

    Games that move the pot this week (Oct. 24): Ole Miss at Texas (a playoff spot is basically on the line), Tennessee at South Carolina, LSU at Auburn, Oklahoma at Mississippi State (a 52-48 coin flip in our model), and Texas A&M at Alabama.

    More from the pot: our Week 7 recap and why Georgia still deserves the SEC crown.

    Sources (data)

    Gridiron Gumbo: SEC football, seasoned in Southwest Louisiana. Projections are our own TAKE built on the data above. Records and ratings are CONFIRMED as of Oct. 20, 2026.

  • Auburn Dismisses Star Linebacker Xavier Atkins, Multiple Outlets Report

    Auburn Dismisses Star Linebacker Xavier Atkins, Multiple Outlets Report

    UPDATE (Oct. 20, 2026, 8:47 AM CT) — CONFIRMED: Xavier Atkins says he will enter the transfer portal. In a post on X early Tuesday, Oct. 20, he wrote: "I have nothing but respect [for] Auburn University and will continue to support my teammates this season," adding that his focus is on his health, his family and finishing the semester, and that he will be entering the portal "at the appropriate time," per ESPN (Pete Thamel) and Pete Thamel on X. He did not address the dismissal itself. He is no longer listed on Auburn's online roster, per Auburn Wire (USA Today). Pete Nakos of On3 reported the portal plan first. Auburn still has not put out a statement.

    The first-team All-SEC linebacker, who sat out Saturday’s upset of No. 1 Georgia, is no longer with the program. LSU, his former school, visits the Plains on Saturday.

    By T-Rohn, Gridiron Gumbo · Posted Oct. 19, 2026, late night CT

    The news, straight up

    CONFIRMED: Auburn has dismissed linebacker Xavier Atkins from the football program, according to several outlets that reported it independently late Monday night, Oct. 19. ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported it first, at about 10:36 p.m. CT, citing sources. On3’s AuburnSports (Justin Hokanson), 247Sports’ Auburn247 (Jason Caldwell) and AL.com (Peter Rauterkus) each confirmed it through their own sources within minutes, and WSFA’s Davis Baker said he could confirm the reports.

    Not yet official: At press time we had not found a statement from Auburn or from Atkins. Head coach Alex Golesh has kept the reasons in-house.

    How we got here

    CONFIRMED: Golesh announced on Oct. 12 that Atkins would not play against Georgia. “We’ll keep it in house,” Golesh said. “He won’t be available for us this week for the game.” Atkins did not travel for Auburn’s 27-24 win in Athens on Saturday.

    CONFIRMED: At his Monday press conference, hours before the reports, Golesh said, “We’re still working through it. I don’t have an update right now.”

    REPORTED (On3, Oct. 12): Sources told AuburnSports that Atkins’ discipline this season was mostly about showing up late to, or skipping, required meetings, and at times about how he practiced. Auburn has not commented on that.

    What Auburn loses

    CONFIRMED: Atkins was a first-team All-SEC pick in 2025 and earned All-American honors from several publications. He led the SEC with 17 tackles for loss last season, with 84 tackles and nine sacks. This season he had 37 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss and three sacks in five games.

    CONFIRMED: Auburn’s defense held up without him at Georgia. Bryce Deas started in his place and made eight tackles, and Elijah Melendez had nine tackles, a sack and an interception. Georgia ran for just 113 yards.

    What’s next

    CONFIRMED: Auburn (4-2, 2-2 SEC) hosts LSU on Saturday, Oct. 24, at 11 a.m. CT on ABC. Atkins transferred to Auburn from LSU, so the Tigers from Baton Rouge will see a familiar name missing from the other sideline.

    The Gumbo Take

    (TAKE, not news.) This is a tough one, and there’s nothing funny about a young man’s career taking a hard turn. Golesh made a call about his locker room, and his defense just proved at Georgia it can cook without its best ingredient. We wish Atkins the best wherever he goes from here. We’ll update this story if Auburn or Atkins comments.

    Labels: CONFIRMED = verified by two or more reliable sources or official records. REPORTED = from one reliable outlet. TAKE = T-Rohn’s opinion.

    Sources

  • Georgia Handles Auburn Loss Like an Adult, Flips Tennessee’s No. 1 JUCO Defensive Lineman Before Knoxville Finished Sweeping Up

    Georgia Handles Auburn Loss Like an Adult, Flips Tennessee’s No. 1 JUCO Defensive Lineman Before Knoxville Finished Sweeping Up

    Christian Mays, the nation’s top-ranked JUCO D-lineman, flips from the Vols to the Dawgs. Georgia goes to 24 commits, Tennessee drops to 18, and Kentucky moves up a spot in the SEC rankings without getting off the couch.

    By T-Rohn, Gridiron Gumbo

    Tennessee fans spent Saturday night on the Neyland Stadium grass. Sunday, the SEC sent the bill: $500,000. Monday at 8:42 a.m. CT, Georgia sent a second bill. This one was also non-refundable, and it plays nose tackle.

    The news, straight up

    CONFIRMED: Georgia flipped defensive lineman Christian Mays, rated a four-star by 247Sports (a three-star in the industry 247Sports Composite), from Tennessee on Monday, Oct. 19, around 8:42 a.m. CT. Rivals (Steve Wiltfong) and 247Sports (Benjamin Wolk) reported it independently, minutes apart.

    CONFIRMED: Mays plays at Northeast Mississippi Community College in the 2027 class. Both Rivals and 247Sports rank him the No. 1 JUCO defensive lineman in the country. 247Sports lists him at 6-foot-5 and 340 pounds.

    CONFIRMED: He had been committed to Tennessee since early June. Georgia offered in mid-September, hosted him on an official visit for the Auburn game this weekend, and closed.

    REPORTED: Through seven games this season he has 15 tackles and a forced fumble, according to the NMCC football site as cited by Tennessee On SI. Texas and Auburn were among the other programs pursuing him, per the same report.

    CONFIRMED: As of Oct. 19, Georgia’s commit count went from 23 to 24 and Tennessee’s from 19 to 18. Update (Oct. 22, 2026): Georgia is back to 23 after linebacker Temorris Campbell Jr. decommitted, per 247Sports. Every move is logged on our SEC Recruiting Hub, which updated at 9:05 a.m. CT.

    Why it matters for Georgia

    REPORTED (247Sports): Mays gives Georgia a true nose tackle. He’s the most 0-technique type in the Bulldogs’ 2027 class so far. That’s the guy who lines up over the center and makes two offensive linemen argue all afternoon about whose turn it is.

    REPORTED (247Sports): He’s the fourth player to flip to Georgia this fall after an in-season official visit, and the second JUCO addition of the fall.

    Four flips. One autumn. At this point a Georgia official visit should come with a change-of-address form and a moving truck idling in the parking lot.

    CONFIRMED: Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia 27-24 on a field goal as time expired Saturday in Athens. Most fan bases handle that by staring at a wall. Georgia fans did the five stages of grief in 40 hours: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and flipping somebody else’s best defensive line commit.

    Why it matters for Tennessee

    CONFIRMED: Tennessee beat then-No. 6 Alabama 26-10 on Saturday. Fans stormed the field. On Sunday, the SEC fined the school $500,000, payable directly to Alabama.

    REPORTED (Knox News, The Tennessean): Stadium security kept fans from tearing down the goalposts. They stayed up.

    REPORTED (UGA Wire, Sept. 15): At that point, Mays was Tennessee’s only defensive line commitment in the 2027 class.

    So here’s the Vols’ weekend. Saturday: beat Alabama. Sunday: write Alabama a check for half a million dollars. Monday: watch Georgia leave with the defensive tackle. That’s not a weekend. That’s a country song with a box score.

    Tennessee paid $500,000 and didn’t even get to keep the goalposts. Security spent Saturday night guarding two yellow poles like they were the crown jewels. Nobody was guarding the defensive line commitment.

    The rankings shake-up

    CONFIRMED (247Sports Composite, updated Oct. 19): Tennessee slipped from 9th to 10th in the SEC. Kentucky rose from 10th to 9th. Kentucky sits at 241.36 points and Tennessee at 238.81.

    Kentucky did not sign anybody to make this happen. Kentucky moved up the way my uncle wins at bourré: sitting perfectly still while everybody else at the table panics.

    And this is the same Kentucky that CONFIRMED paid LSU $500,000 for its own field storm after beating the Tigers 35-34 in overtime on Oct. 10. So Kentucky spent half a million dollars on a party, then got a free ranking bump nine days later because a different school’s party went worse. That’s not a recruiting strategy. That’s a coupon.

    Lagniappe Stat (CONFIRMED): In that same 247 Composite, Mississippi State is 16th of 16. I bring this up as a State fan because a 247Sports four-star defensive lineman was playing football in Mississippi this whole time, and I need somebody to talk to.

    The Gumbo Take

    (TAKE, not news.) Mais, let me tell you about roux.

    Nobody posts a picture of the roux. Nobody orders “extra roux.” But you skip it, and what you’ve got is shrimp floating in sad brown water while your in-laws ask if you “used a recipe.” A nose tackle is the roux of a defense. Nobody buys his jersey. Everything falls apart without him.

    Georgia just put a big ol’ cast-iron skillet of dark roux on the stove. Tennessee, if that September report still holds, is standing at the boil with corn, potatoes and a sack of sausage, and no crawfish in sight.

    Fair is fair. Tennessee isn’t wrecked. The Vols just beat Alabama, and it’s October, not National Signing Day. A good program re-stirs the pot. And Georgia fans, a recruiting win on Monday does not un-kick Saturday’s field goal. That ball is still going through the uprights in Athens. It’ll go through every night this week, around 2 a.m.

    Mays, for his part, made a smart football call at a premium position. The No. 1 JUCO D-lineman in the country picking an SEC home is good for the league. Ça c’est bon.

    Quick bites from the pot

    • Cousin Thibodeaux (fictional, always wrong) says he called this flip back in June. He called it for Vanderbilt.
    • Georgia doesn’t recruit the Southeast. It runs a Shop-Vac across it and sorts the bag later.
    • Tennessee’s weekend ledger: $500,000 paid to the team it beat, zero goalposts acquired, one defensive tackle lost. Somewhere a financial advisor in Knoxville is breathing into a paper bag.
    • (SATIRE) Kentucky celebrated the bump by storming its own break room. The SEC fine is pending.

    The last spoonful

    Georgia lost on Saturday and won on Monday. Tennessee won on Saturday and lost on Monday. Kentucky did nothing at all and came out ahead. That’s SEC recruiting in one sentence, cher.

    At press time (SATIRE), Tennessee fans had returned to Neyland to finally take those goalposts down, just to feel something. The SEC mailed the invoice in advance.

    Labels: CONFIRMED = verified by two or more reliable sources or official records. REPORTED = from one reliable outlet. RUMOR = unverified (none used here). TAKE = T-Rohn’s opinion. SATIRE = jokes, not facts.

    Sources

    Correction (Oct. 22, 2026): An earlier version called Mays a four-star without naming the rating service. He is a four-star in 247Sports’ own rating and a three-star in the 247Sports Composite.

    Update (Oct. 22, 2026): Added an “as of Oct. 19” date to the commit counts. Georgia now has 23 2027 commits, per 247Sports.

  • SEC Week 7 Recap: Auburn Upsets No. 1 Georgia, Tennessee Beats Alabama, Florida Wins at Texas and LSU Shuts Out Mississippi State

    SEC Week 7 Recap: Auburn Upsets No. 1 Georgia, Tennessee Beats Alabama, Florida Wins at Texas and LSU Shuts Out Mississippi State

    Gridiron Gumbo | SEC Week 7 Recap: games of Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 | Posted Sunday night, Oct. 18, 2026

    By Rohn Dixon, reporting from Southwest Louisiana, where the roux is dark, the mosquitoes are organized, and the takes are hotter than a boiling pot at a church crawfish fundraiser

    Before We Stir the Pot: A Disclosure

    Full transparency, cher: I bleed maroon. Mississippi State is my team, and I’ve been a Bulldog ever since a few LSU road trips to Starkville made me fall for the place. That means two things. One, I know heartbreak like a Cajun knows humidity. Two, in this kitchen State goes in the same pot as everybody else, and this week I turned the burner all the way up on my own boys. You’ll see.

    Now, what a Saturday. For the second straight week, the No. 1 team in the country got dunked in the roux by an unranked SEC team. Last week it was Texas falling to Oklahoma. This week Auburn walked into Athens and walked out with Georgia’s crown on a field goal as time expired. Per Sportradar, it’s the first time the AP’s No. 1 team has lost in back-to-back weeks since October 1990. Alabama lost its second straight game, too. Texas lost its second straight. Florida, left for dead two weeks ago, rose up like a gator out of a drainage ditch in Austin. Arkansas finally won an SEC game. And Kentucky, the team that keeps winning games it has no business winning, is now tied with Georgia for first place in the SEC. Mawmaw dropped her rosary twice.

    Cajun Commentary: The throne in this league has a revolving door and a squeaky hinge. Nobody’s safe, nobody’s clean, and everybody’s got gumbo on their good shirt.

    There were seven SEC-vs-SEC games plus one nonconference game, no SEC games Thursday or Friday, and one team on a bye (South Carolina). By Sunday the SEC still had nine teams in the AP Top 25, but the highest one is Georgia, down at No. 5.

    Grab a bowl, a sleeve of saltines, and a can of bug spray. Here’s the whole league.

    The Weekend at a Glance

    • Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24 (Athens)
    • No. 14 Tennessee 26, No. 6 Alabama 10 (Knoxville)
    • Florida 27, No. 7 Texas 24 (Austin)
    • No. 9 Ole Miss 31, No. 13 Missouri 3 (Oxford)
    • No. 15 Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13 (Norman)
    • No. 22 LSU 31, No. 16 Mississippi State 0 (Baton Rouge)
    • Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21 (Nashville)
    • Texas A&M 41, The Citadel 0 (College Station)
    • Bye: South Carolina

    Rankings shown are the AP rankings going into the game. Week 7 lines quoted below are DraftKings closing lines.

    Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24: Two weeks, two No. 1s dunked in the roux. That throne's got a revolving door, cher.
    Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24: Two weeks, two No. 1s dunked in the roux. That throne’s got a revolving door, cher.

    AUBURN TIGERS: The Upset Boil of the Year (So Far)

    Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24 | Auburn now 4-2 (2-2 SEC) | Unranked

    Cajun roast: Auburn came into Athens as a 19.5-point underdog (DraftKings closing line). Georgia fans had the victory boudin warming in the slow cooker by kickoff. Auburn ate it, licked the plate, and asked where the cracklins were.

    Down 14-0 in the first quarter, Auburn could’ve folded like a cheap lawn chair at a crawfish boil. Instead the Tigers scored 24 straight points, starting with a trick play: Byrum Brown pitched to receiver Christian Neptune, who threw a touchdown pass to Keshaun Singleton. Brown ran it like a 235-pound bulldozer with a learner’s permit: 26 carries, 115 yards and a touchdown, plus 15 of 26 passing for 150 yards and a TD to Chas Nimrod (6 catches, 60 yards). Per Auburn, Brown joins Cam Newton as the only Auburn quarterbacks in 40 years to run for 100 yards against Georgia.

    Georgia tied it 24-24 with 2:58 left. Then Cody Sigler forced a fumble in the final minute, Sylvester Smith-Reed jumped on it at the Auburn 44, and Alex McPherson drilled a 34-yarder as time expired. Elijah Melendez was everywhere: 9 tackles, a sack and an interception. Auburn outrushed Georgia 192-113 and committed zero turnovers. First-year coach Alex Golesh now owns Auburn’s first road win over a No. 1 team since 1994.

    Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Auburn is the most dangerous unranked team in the SEC, and nobody wants to see that quarterback coming downhill in November. Eleven penalties for 85 yards, though? Baby, you won in spite of the flags.

    Gumbo Grade: A+. Road win, No. 1 opponent, walk-off kick, zero turnovers. Ça c’est bon, and then some.

    GEORGIA BULLDOGS: One Week on the Throne, Then Into the Pot

    Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24 | Georgia now 6-1 (4-1 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 5

    Cajun roast: Georgia’s stay at No. 1 lasted exactly one week, which is shorter than my cousin’s last diet and only slightly longer than a Mardi Gras parade bead stays on a balcony railing.

    It started like a coronation. Georgia went up 14-0 in the first quarter on a 15-yard Dwight Phillips Jr. run and a 24-yard Gunner Stockton touchdown pass to tight end Lawson Luckie. Then the Dawgs stopped cooking and started burning the rice. Auburn scored 24 straight. Georgia rallied with a 42-yard Peyton Woodring field goal and a gutsy 13-play, 94-yard drive that ended on Stockton’s 4-yard TD pass to London Humphreys to tie it with 2:58 left.

    Then came the self-inflicted stuff. Georgia turned it over three times, and Kirby Smart was blunt about the penalties: “untimely, uncharacteristic and undisciplined.” A late roughing-the-passer flag helped set up the winning kick. Georgia actually outgained Auburn 440-366, with Stockton throwing for 272 yards and two TDs and Craig Dandridge catching 4 balls for 88 yards. Raylen Wilson had 10 tackles and a sack.

    The streaks that died in Athens: nine straight wins over Auburn, and 53 straight wins over unranked teams. Per the AP, No. 1 teams had won 93 straight home games against unranked opponents, going back to 2007. Not anymore.

    Cajun Commentary: Ruthless truth: Georgia is still tied for first in the SEC, and most of the league would trade résumés with them in a heartbeat. But you don’t get to lose at home as a 19.5-point favorite (DraftKings closing line) and still call yourself the best team in the country with a straight face.

    Gumbo Grade: D+. Outgained the opponent, lost the game. That’s a gumbo with all the right ingredients that somebody left on high heat and walked off to watch the LSU game.

    TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS: Third Saturday in October, and Neyland Keeps Its Streak

    No. 14 Tennessee 26, No. 6 Alabama 10 | Tennessee now 6-1 (3-1 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 11

    Cajun roast: Tennessee kicked four field goals in the first half and still won by 16. That’s like going to the crawfish boil, only eating the corn, and still leaving fuller than everybody else.

    This was a beatdown dressed up in a modest final score. DeSean Bishop ran 32 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns, his third straight 100-yard game. George MacIntyre was steady: 21 of 31 for 197 yards, with Mike Matthews catching a career-high 7 passes for 85 yards. Kicker Cooper Ranvier made four first-half field goals (29, 33, 41 and 34 yards).

    But the defense was the whole roux. Alabama had 201 total yards, 54 rushing, went 2 of 13 on third down, and turned it over four times. Kayin Lee and Dejuan Lane each picked off a pass. Then Tennessee closed it with a 9-minute, 32-second fourth-quarter drive, the longest of the Josh Heupel era, ending on Bishop’s second 5-yard TD. Tennessee has now won three of its last five against Alabama after losing 15 straight. All three wins came at Neyland.

    Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Tennessee is the most complete team in the SEC right now. The quarterback play is “fine,” the running game is a freight train, and that defense is meaner than a cottonmouth in a crawfish trap.

    Gumbo Grade: A. The only thing keeping it from an A+ is settling for field goals four times. Finish those drives, and they’d have needed a mercy rule.

    ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE: The Tide Has Officially Gone Out

    No. 14 Tennessee 26, No. 6 Alabama 10 | Alabama now 5-2 (3-2 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 13

    Cajun roast: Two weeks ago Bama was scoring like a slot machine at the Coushatta. Saturday the offense had the energy of a swamp-tour boat with a dead battery and a gator chewing on the propeller.

    This is the first time Alabama has lost back-to-back regular-season games since 2007. Let that soak in like red beans on a Monday. The Tide managed 201 total yards, went 0 for 7 on third down in the first half and 2 for 13 for the game, lost two fumbles, threw two interceptions, and drew 10 penalties for 68 yards. Keelon Russell’s 19-yard touchdown run and a 42-yard Conor Talty field goal right before halftime were the only points. Then the scoreboard went to camp for the weekend.

    The defense deserved better. Caleb Woodson made 11 tackles, Bray Hubbard 10, and Ivan Taylor got an interception. They held Tennessee to field goals four times in the first half. But you can’t ask a defense to hold the line all day when the offense keeps handing the other team the ball like it’s passing out king cake at the office.

    Cajun Commentary: Ruthless take: Alabama’s two losses came to two very good teams, and they’re still alive for the playoff. But “alive” and “scary” are two different words, and right now nobody in the SEC is scared of this offense. Texas A&M comes to Tuscaloosa next. That’s the ballgame for the season’s mood.

    Gumbo Grade: D. The defense keeps it out of F territory. The offense served a bowl of hot water and called it gumbo.

    Tennessee 26, Alabama 10: Bama had 4 turnovers, 201 yards, 2-of-13 on third down. First back-to-back regular-season losses since 2007. Somebody back the pirogue up to Knoxville, Bama's sinkin'.
    Tennessee 26, Alabama 10: Bama had 4 turnovers, 201 yards, 2-of-13 on third down. First back-to-back regular-season losses since 2007. Somebody back the pirogue up to Knoxville, Bama’s sinkin’.

    FLORIDA GATORS: Rose Up Out of the Swamp and Bit Somebody

    Florida 27, No. 7 Texas 24 | Florida now 5-2 (3-2 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 20

    Cajun roast: Last week Florida got booed at its own homecoming. This week the Gators went into Austin as a 13.5-point dog (DraftKings closing line) and flashed the upside-down horns on the way off the field. That’s a bigger mood swing than my uncle at an LSU-Alabama watch party.

    Quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. made the first start of his college career, in a road game, at a top-10 team, and played like a grown man. He went 22 of 35 for 155 yards and two touchdowns, both to Lacota Dippre, and ran for 41 more. Florida trailed 17-3 in the second quarter, then took over. Dippre’s 7-yard TD made it 17-10 at the half, his 8-yarder capped a 15-play, eight-minute drive in the third, Patrick Durkin kicked a 28-yarder for the lead, and Jadan Baugh (25 carries, 91 yards) punched in an 11-yard touchdown.

    Then the defense, ranked last in the SEC coming in, did something wild: it sacked Arch Manning five times (per the AP), held Texas to 272 total yards and 2 of 10 on third down, and Myles Graham’s strip-sack ended Texas’ last possession. Florida won time of possession 38:11 to 21:49 and didn’t turn it over once. It’s the program’s first road win over a top-10 team since 2012.

    Cajun Commentary: Hot take: first-year coach Jon Sumrall may have just saved Florida’s season. The Gators get a bye, then go to Georgia on Oct. 31. If they bring this defense, the Dawgs had better check under the porch.

    Gumbo Grade: A. Comeback, road upset, first-time starter, no turnovers. Ça c’est bon, cher.

    TEXAS LONGHORNS: Most Expensive Pot on the Stove, Nothing Inside It

    Florida 27, No. 7 Texas 24 | Texas now 4-2 (1-2 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 19

    Cajun roast: Texas has the budget of a small oil company and an offense that’s run out of gas two weeks in a row. Somebody check the dipstick in Austin, because something’s leaking.

    Texas led 17-3 in the second quarter, thanks to a 32-yard Raleek Brown touchdown run, a Gianni Spetic field goal and a 63-yard punt-return touchdown by Ryan Niblett. Then the Longhorns went into a crawfish hole and didn’t come out. Texas finished with 13 first downs, 272 total yards, 2 of 10 on third down, and held the ball for under 22 minutes. The one bright spot late was a 62-yard completion to Emmett Mosley V that set up a 9-yard TD pass to Cam Coleman, which only made it a three-point game.

    On defense, Colin Simmons had four tackles for loss and a sack and Justin Cryer made 11 tackles, but Florida’s 15-play and 14-play scoring drives in the second half wore them down. Steve Sarkisian summed it up himself: “We didn’t play good football today. Kind of bled out.”

    Cajun Commentary: Ruthless truth: Texas was No. 1 in the country two weeks ago, and now it’s 1-2 in the SEC and ranked behind Kentucky. That’s not a slump, that’s a whole sinkhole under the camp. Ole Miss comes to Austin next. If that goes sideways, the panic in Austin will be louder than a brass band in a phone booth.

    Gumbo Grade: D. A punt-return touchdown and a fast start were all they had. The rest was a cold roux.

    OLE MISS REBELS: Homecoming Dinner, and Missouri Was the Main Course

    No. 9 Ole Miss 31, No. 13 Missouri 3 | Ole Miss now 5-1 (3-1 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 7

    Cajun roast: Missouri brought over a bunch of former Rebels to make it personal. Ole Miss sent ’em home with a to-go plate and a “thanks for coming, y’all.”

    This one was over by halftime. Trinidad Chambliss accounted for four touchdowns: three passes (10 yards to Caleb Odom, 21 to Horatio Fields, 17 to Caleb Cunningham) and a 5-yard run. He went 20 of 36 for 241 yards. The ground game ran over Missouri like a pickup truck over a fire-ant mound: Kewan Lacy had 122 yards on 16 carries, Makhi Frazier added 101 on 15, and Ole Miss piled up 498 total yards, 257 rushing.

    The defense might’ve been even better. Missouri came in with a back fresh off two straight 200-yard games, and Ole Miss held the whole Tiger offense to 39 rushing yards on 26 carries. Defensive tackle Will Echoles had a sack, two pass breakups and a quarterback hurry. Landon Barnes snagged an interception. Per the AP, the Rebels are now 25-1 at home since 2023.

    Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Ole Miss is the SEC team playing the best football in October, period. They lost one game, at Florida, and that Florida team just won in Austin. Pete Golding’s bunch is cooking with a cast-iron pot now.

    Gumbo Grade: A. Dominant on both lines against a top-15 team. That’s a dark roux, slow-cooked, served hot.

    MISSOURI TIGERS: First-and-Goal at the 2, Zero Points, Long Drive Home

    No. 9 Ole Miss 31, No. 13 Missouri 3 | Missouri now 5-2 (2-2 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 22

    Cajun roast: Missouri had first-and-goal at the 2-yard line and came away with nothing. I’ve seen drunk tourists on Bourbon Street find the end zone faster, and they didn’t even have a map.

    Here’s the moment the game turned. Trailing 7-3 in the second quarter, Missouri had first-and-goal at the Ole Miss 2. Two runs went backward, a pass fell incomplete, and a 23-yard field goal missed. Ole Miss then scored two touchdowns in a row and led 21-3 at halftime. Missouri didn’t reach the red zone again until the final two minutes. The run game, the heart of this team, produced 39 yards on 26 carries.

    There were bright spots. Austin Simmons threw for 339 yards, Donovan Olugbode caught 9 passes for 127 yards, linebacker Nicholas Rodriguez made 13 tackles, and punter Bruno Reus averaged 42.5 yards on seven punts. But an offense that can’t run the ball and can’t score from the 2 is a gumbo pot with a hole in the bottom.

    Cajun Commentary: Ruthless truth: Missouri’s only real problem is that it can’t win away from home against good teams. The Tigers are unbeaten at home, and three of their final four games are in Columbia. Eli Drinkwitz said he won’t wallow. Good, because the swamp doesn’t care about your feelings either.

    Gumbo Grade: D-. Three points against a top-10 team, and no points from the 2. The pot never got to a boil.

    KENTUCKY WILDCATS: The Luckiest Cats in the Bayou, and Now They’re Tied for First

    No. 15 Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13 | Kentucky now 6-1 (4-1 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 12

    Cajun roast: Kentucky wins games like my Uncle T-Boy wins at bourré: nobody at the table can explain how, everybody’s mad about it, and he’s still holding the pot at the end of the night.

    Kentucky gained 230 total yards, trailed 13-7 late in the third quarter, and won by eight. The defense did it. The Wildcats intercepted Oklahoma four times: Ty Bryant had two, and Jordan Castell had two, including a 41-yard pick-six with 1:17 left that sealed it. Bryant’s first interception set up the go-ahead drive, which ended on Kenny Minchey’s second touchdown pass of the night. Minchey went 21 of 28 for 158 yards and two TDs, and Grant Godfrey made 15 tackles.

    That’s five straight wins, including back-to-back overtime wins over ranked teams before this one. Kentucky’s only loss was to Alabama, and now the Wildcats are tied with Georgia atop the SEC. Read that sentence again slowly. Yes, Kentucky football.

    Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Kentucky is the best “how in the world” team in America, and that’s a compliment. Zero turnovers, opportunistic defense, and nerves of steel. But 230 yards won’t beat Tennessee or Georgia. Enjoy the view from the top, Cats. Bring a lawn chair, because it might be a short visit.

    Gumbo Grade: A-. A road SEC win built on four takeaways and zero giveaways. The offense brought store-bought potato salad, but the defense cooked the whole meal.

    OKLAHOMA SOONERS: From Beating No. 1 to Handing Out Free Samples

    No. 15 Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13 | Oklahoma now 3-3 (1-2 SEC) | Unranked

    Cajun roast: One week after knocking off No. 1 Texas, Oklahoma threw four interceptions at home. That’s like winning the Mardi Gras king cake baby and choking on it at the parade.

    The Sooners outgained Kentucky 346-230, had more first downs (19-14), held the ball longer, and lost by eight because they gave the ball away four times through the air, including the pick-six that ended it. Manny Choice caught 5 passes for 98 yards, Isaiah Sategna III added 8 for 83, and Rocky Beers caught a 20-yard touchdown pass right before halftime. Tate Sandell made field goals from 44 and 26 yards.

    The defense was good enough to win. Kentucky had 76 yards and four punts on five straight drives after its opening touchdown, and Jake Kreul had 2.5 sacks and three tackles for loss. But the AP put it plainly: turnovers once again did in the offense. The run game didn’t help, with 76 rushing yards on the night.

    Cajun Commentary: Ruthless truth: the Texas win was a party, and this was the hangover. A 3-3 team with a top-notch defense and an offense that keeps tossing the ball to the other side is a coin flip every week. Oklahoma goes to Starkville next as a 3-point favorite (DraftKings, as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22), and yes, I’ll be sweating that one.

    Gumbo Grade: D+. The defense earned a B. The four interceptions dragged the whole pot down.

    LSU TIGERS: Death Valley Served a Full Plate, and Nobody Else Got a Bite

    No. 22 LSU 31, No. 16 Mississippi State 0 | LSU now 5-2 (2-2 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 18

    Cajun roast: LSU fans have spent all season complaining louder than a fais do-do band with a blown speaker. Saturday the Tigers finally gave ’em something else to yell about.

    Credit where it’s due, even from a maroon man. Sam Leavitt played his cleanest game of the season: 31 of 38 for 289 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions, his first turnover-free game this year, spreading the ball to nine receivers. Jackson Harris caught 6 passes for 85 yards and two TDs (27 and 17 yards), Eugene Wilson III and Malik Elzy caught the others, and Dilin Jones had 84 rushing yards plus 8 catches for 58. LSU led 21-0 at halftime and converted 8 of 13 third downs.

    The defense pitched LSU’s first shutout of an SEC opponent since 2007. TJ Dottery made 12 tackles, Jordan Ross had a sack and 2.5 tackles for loss, and Ty Benefield picked off a pass. State got inside the LSU 40 five times and came away with zero, all five ending on failed fourth downs.

    Fair is fair, though, so here’s the balance. LSU was outrushed 170-90, and the opponent was missing its starting quarterback and top running back. A week ago this team lost in overtime at Kentucky. Lane Kiffin said it himself: no pity for injuries, and he’s right, but nobody should engrave a trophy off one Saturday.

    Cajun Commentary: Hot take: if Leavitt keeps throwing it like this and stops giving the ball away, LSU is the most dangerous two-loss team in the league. If not, they’re the most dangerous two-loss team to their own fans’ blood pressure.

    Gumbo Grade: A. A clean, convincing shutout of a ranked rival. Not an A+, because the run game was a mosquito bite, not a gator bite.

    MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS: My Team, My Pot, My Goose Egg

    No. 22 LSU 31, No. 16 Mississippi State 0 | Mississippi State now 4-2 (2-2 SEC) | Dropped out of the AP Top 25

    Cajun roast: State got inside the LSU 40 five times and came home with zero points. I’ve seen Mawmaw walk out of a casino with more to show for it, and she plays the penny slots with a coupon.

    I promised I’d boil my own team hotter than anybody, so here’s the boil. Mississippi State has now lost two straight, each by more than 30 points, and this one was a shutout. Five drives got inside the LSU 40. All five ended on failed fourth-down tries, including one from the LSU 6-yard line. Not one field goal attempt. State went 0 for 5 on fourth down. Jeff Lebby went for it all afternoon and came home broke. The offense drove inside the 20 just once, went 7 of 15 on third down, and committed 7 penalties for 75 yards.

    To be fair, State was missing its starting quarterback, Kamario Taylor, and its top running back, Fluff Bothwell. Second-year quarterback Parker Puckett made his first career start in Death Valley, of all places, and went 16 of 26 for 121 yards, with a 33-yard run as his best play. Kolin Wilson ran for 70-plus yards, and State actually outrushed LSU 170-90 and held the ball for more than 30 minutes. On defense, Jett Jefferson made 8 tackles and Marcus Williams had a sack and two tackles for loss. But the defense also gave up 31 of 38 passing to Leavitt.

    Cajun Commentary: Ruthless take from the guy who owns the maroon: the injuries are real, but five empty trips inside the 40 is a coaching problem, not a roster problem. Take the points, Coach. Oklahoma comes to Starkville on Saturday, and this team needs a win like a crawfish needs water.

    Gumbo Grade: F. I love y’all, but a shutout is a shutout. Mawmaw made me say it.

    LSU 31, Mississippi State 0: Five trips inside the LSU 40. Five failed fourth downs. Zero points. Mawmaw would've kicked the field goal from the 6, cher.
    LSU 31, Mississippi State 0: Five trips inside the LSU 40. Five failed fourth downs. Zero points. Mawmaw would’ve kicked the field goal from the 6, cher.

    ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS: The Drought Is Over. Somebody Light the Grill.

    Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21 | Arkansas now 3-4 (1-3 SEC) | Unranked

    Cajun roast: Arkansas hadn’t won an SEC game since 2024. That’s 14 straight conference losses, which is longer than some marriages in my family.

    Finally. The Hogs went to Nashville as 5.5-point underdogs (DraftKings closing line) and snapped a 14-game SEC losing streak. Joker Johnson started it with a 25-yard pick-six, Cam Settles ran for two touchdowns, and quarterback KJ Jackson went 21 of 31 for 251 yards and ran for 58 yards and a TD, including an 8-yarder that gave Arkansas a 21-14 lead early in the third quarter. Settles’ 3-yard score with nine seconds left in the third broke a 21-21 tie for good. Arkansas ran for 187 yards, gained 438 overall, and didn’t turn it over.

    When Vanderbilt drove to the Arkansas 29 with 3:46 left, Miguel Mitchell picked it off, and Max Gilbert’s 39-yard field goal iced it. Coach Ryan Silverfield said the win “was for the players,” and after two years of this, they earned every bite.

    Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Arkansas just found its identity, and it’s “run the ball and don’t do anything dumb.” Revolutionary, I know. The Hogs get a bye, then host Missouri on Oct. 31. Bring that run game and they might steal another one.

    Gumbo Grade: A-. Road SEC win, zero turnovers, a defensive touchdown and a closing interception. The only thing missing is a passing touchdown. Pass the boudin, Fayetteville.

    VANDERBILT COMMODORES: Favored at Home and Still Got Peeled

    Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21 | Vanderbilt now 3-4 (0-4 SEC) | Unranked

    Cajun roast: Vanderbilt was a 5.5-point favorite (DraftKings closing line) at home against a team on a 14-game SEC losing streak, and lost. That’s like losing a staring contest to a crawfish that’s already been boiled.

    Vandy now has four straight losses and is 0-4 in the SEC. Jared Curtis threw for 274 yards and a touchdown, a 24-yarder to Junior Sherrill, who had a big night with 8 catches for 99 yards. Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young each ran for a score, and Bryan Longwell made 13 tackles. But two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown and one on the final real drive, sank the ship.

    The bigger problem is a defense that was supposed to be the strength of this team. Arkansas ran for 187 yards, one week after Ole Miss ran for 196. Clark Lea said, “We’re actively in pursuit of a better performance.” Coach, the whole fan base is in pursuit of that, plus a cold drink.

    Cajun Commentary: Ruthless truth: Vandy’s 3-0 start is a memory now, as faded as last year’s Mardi Gras beads in a pickup truck’s rearview mirror. Next up is a trip to Kentucky. Bring a life jacket.

    Gumbo Grade: D-. You were the favorite. At home. Against the team with the longest losing streak in the league. Yikes, cher.

    TEXAS A&M AGGIES: Scrimmage Saturday at Kyle Field

    Texas A&M 41, The Citadel 0 | Texas A&M now 4-3 (1-3 SEC) | Unranked

    Cajun roast: After scoring six points at Missouri, A&M scheduled a get-well casserole from the FCS. It was delicious. It was also The Citadel. Don’t post the recipe yet.

    A&M did exactly what it was supposed to do. The Aggies scored touchdowns on all four first-half drives, led 28-0 at halftime, and gained 501 total yards. Jamarion Morrow ran for three first-half touchdowns (all short ones, six yards combined), KJ Edwards led all rushers with 116 yards, and Aaron Gregory caught 6 passes for 94 yards and two TDs. Starter Marcel Reed went 8 of 13 for 130 yards and a TD before the backups took over. The defense allowed 183 yards and pitched its second shutout of the season, the first time A&M has had two in the same year since 1993.

    Cajun Commentary: Hot take: this tells us nothing, and that’s fine. A&M is 1-3 in the SEC and heads to Tuscaloosa as a 13.5-point underdog (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23). That’s when we find out if the offense is fixed or just took a nice nap.

    Gumbo Grade: B. You can’t grade higher than a B against an FCS team, but they did everything right. A clean plate is a clean plate.

    SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS: On a Bye, Somewhere Fishing

    Bye week | South Carolina is 3-3 (1-3 SEC) | Unranked

    Cajun roast: South Carolina had the best week in the SEC, because it’s the only team that couldn’t lose. Somebody check on Columbia, they might be at the camp with a cooler and a cane pole.

    The Gamecocks rested up after a 38-19 win at Florida on Oct. 10, and that win looks a whole lot better now that Florida just won in Austin. Next comes the big one: No. 11 Tennessee in Columbia on Saturday, with South Carolina a 2.5-point favorite (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23).

    Cajun Commentary: Hot take: South Carolina at home against Tennessee is the most underrated game of the week. If the Gamecocks bring the Gainesville version, the Vols’ playoff talk gets a whole lot quieter.

    Gumbo Grade: B (for Bye). Undefeated this week. Nobody fumbled, nobody got flagged, nobody got embarrassed. Lucky them.

    The Power Pot: SEC Power Rankings After Week 7

    Ranked by how good each team looks right now, not by brand name or by what the helmets cost. And yes, the maroon team is where it is on merit.

    1. Tennessee (6-1, 3-1) – Three straight wins, a punishing run game, and a defense that just suffocated Alabama. The only loss was by three to Texas. Hottest pot on the stove.
    2. Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1) – Held a top-15 team to three points and 39 rushing yards. Playing the best football in the league this month.
    3. Georgia (6-1, 4-1) – Still tied for first with wins at Alabama and over Oklahoma. The Auburn loss was a home-cooked disaster, but the résumé is still the best in the room.
    4. Kentucky (6-1, 4-1) – Tied for first, five straight wins, and more lucky charms than a Lafayette pawn shop. The 45-17 home loss to Bama keeps them from the top three.
    5. Florida (5-2, 3-2) – Wins over Ole Miss, Texas and Auburn. A week ago they looked like roadkill. Now they’re the scariest gator in the ditch.
    6. LSU (5-2, 2-2) – Lost by eight at Ole Miss and by one at Kentucky, then shut out a ranked rival. If the turnovers stay gone, look out.
    7. Alabama (5-2, 3-2) – Two straight losses, but they still have wins over Kentucky and South Carolina. The talent’s there. The offense isn’t.
    8. Auburn (4-2, 2-2) – Toppled No. 1 on the road. Losses to Florida and Tennessee are respectable. Nobody wants this quarterback in November.
    9. Missouri (5-2, 2-2) – Unbeaten at home, beaten up on the road. First-and-goal at the 2 for zero points is going to haunt their film room.
    10. Texas (4-2, 1-2) – No. 1 two weeks ago, now has two straight losses and a 1-2 SEC record. The talent says higher. The tape says “get in line.”
    11. Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2) – Yes, they beat Missouri head-to-head. They also lost the last two by a combined 64 points. I put ’em here myself, and it hurts like stepping on a crawfish claw barefoot.
    12. Oklahoma (3-3, 1-2) – A win over Texas and a defense that travels, but an offense that keeps giving the ball away.
    13. South Carolina (3-3, 1-3) – That 38-19 win at Florida keeps aging well. Tennessee at home will tell us the truth.
    14. Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3) – Beat up an FCS team. Next up is Tuscaloosa, which is not an FCS team.
    15. Arkansas (3-4, 1-3) – The streak is dead, the run game is alive, and the Hogs are finally out of the basement.
    16. Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4) – Four straight losses and a home loss as the favorite. They’ve got the basement all to themselves now.

    Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Nos. 1 through 4 are so close you couldn’t slide a crawfish tail between them. Tennessee gets the top spot because it’s the one team that looks better every single week. Ask me again after Saturday in Columbia.

    Next Week on the Menu (Saturday, Oct. 24; all times CT)

    Kickoff times and TV from ESPN’s schedule; lines are DraftKings numbers as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23 unless noted, and will move.

    • No. 18 LSU at Auburn, 11 a.m. (ABC). Tiger vs. Tiger at Jordan-Hare. LSU is favored by 7 (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23), but Auburn just took down No. 1 in Athens. This is the most dangerous early game on the board, and somebody’s mawmaw is going to need her heart pills.
    • No. 11 Tennessee at South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN). South Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite at home (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23), coming off a bye. The Vols’ playoff dreams walk into Williams-Brice. Our sleeper game of the week.
    • Texas A&M at No. 13 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (ABC). Bama is favored by 13.5 (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23) and desperate. A&M is fresh off a scrimmage. If the Tide lose three straight, folks in Tuscaloosa will start burning sage.
    • Oklahoma at Mississippi State, 2:30 p.m. (SEC Network). OU is a 3-point favorite in Starkville (DraftKings, as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22). Both teams need this like a fish needs a bayou. I’m not picking it. I’ll be on my porch, chewing my fingernails.
    • No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas, 6:30 p.m. (ABC). Game of the week. Texas is a 3.5-point home favorite, which tells you how much respect Austin still gets with the oddsmakers. Lose this, and the Longhorns’ season goes in the trash with the crawfish shells.
    • Vanderbilt at No. 12 Kentucky, 6:30 p.m. (SEC Network). Kentucky is favored by 10.5 (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23) and has a share of first place to protect. Vandy needs a win like a Cajun needs hot sauce.
    • Bye: Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Missouri. (Florida at Georgia and Missouri at Arkansas are both Oct. 31.)

    Cajun Commentary: Ole Miss-Texas is the marquee game, but LSU-Auburn and Tennessee-South Carolina are the two most likely to blow up the Power Pot. Set the DVR, cher, and hide the remote from your in-laws.

    That’s the gumbo for this week, y’all. Laissez les bons temps rouler, take the points when they’re on the table, and don’t forget the bug spray.

    Gridiron Gumbo: SEC football, seasoned in Southwest Louisiana.

    Sources

    Final scores, box scores, standings, AP rankings (Week 8 poll released Oct. 18), next week’s schedule, and betting lines come from ESPN’s scoreboard, game summaries and standings. Scores were cross-checked with CollegeFootballData and with game recaps from the AP and the schools’ official athletics sites (Auburn, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Texas A&M), plus CBS Sports and SECSports.com, all accessed Oct. 18, 2026.

  • Vanderbilt Loses Backup QB Blaze Berlowitz, Two Linemen Before Arkansas Visits Nashville

    Vanderbilt Loses Backup QB Blaze Berlowitz, Two Linemen Before Arkansas Visits Nashville

    By T-Rohn. Disclosure: Gridiron Gumbo’s owner leans Mississippi State, which means he has no dog in this fight and a deep personal understanding of what a rough October feels like.

    Result update (Oct. 22, 2026), CONFIRMED: Arkansas won 31-21 at Vanderbilt on Oct. 17, snapping the Razorbacks’ 14-game SEC losing streak, per ESPN and the AP recap. Our pick, Vanderbilt 28-20, was a miss, and it is logged as a miss in our pick tracker.

    Vanderbilt’s week started the way a crawfish boil ends when somebody forgets the lid: hot, messy and short on the good stuff. The Commodores are coming off a 52-17 home loss to Ole Miss, and on Tuesday coach Clark Lea confirmed three injuries that will keep key depth pieces out when Arkansas comes to FirstBank Stadium on Saturday.

    Blaze Berlowitz: Broken Collarbone, Unbroken Toughness

    Backup quarterback Blaze Berlowitz broke his collarbone late in the Ole Miss game and had surgery Monday. Lea says he’ll be out about a month.

    Berlowitz came in after the game was decided and led a touchdown drive. Along the way he took a hit on a sideline run near the Rebels’ 12 that drew an unnecessary roughness flag. Then he stayed in, threw one more pass and handed off twice before he left. “Just the toughness to have a broken collar bone and finish taking three snaps including a pass is pretty remarkable,” Lea said. We make jokes for a living around here, and there’s nothing funny about that. The man finished the drive. Respect.

    To be clear, Berlowitz was not Saturday’s starter. Five-star freshman Jared Curtis took the job during the Delaware game. Berlowitz started the first two games, then got the start at Georgia while Curtis was hurt, going 12-for-23 for 190 yards with a touchdown and an interception. On the season he’s 28-for-53 for 386 yards and a score, plus 110 rushing yards. He even volunteered to play receiver after losing the QB job. That’s the kind of teammate who brings the ice chest and the boudin to the tailgate.

    Who’s Holding the Clipboard Now?

    With Berlowitz out, the backup job behind Curtis goes to junior Whit Muschamp or sophomore Jack Elliott. Muschamp appeared to have the edge coming out of fall camp, and his only passing work this season was two attempts against Georgia. Yes, he’s that Muschamp family. We’ll give Vandy fans a minute to decide whether that last name makes them feel better or reach for the Pepto.

    The Big Fellas Up Front

    Gunner Givens, an offensive lineman, needs season-ending hip surgery. Lea called it about a six-month recovery. The good news is that Givens’ waiver for an extra season of eligibility has already been approved, so he gets another year in black and gold.

    Offensive lineman Mitchell Smith, who also missed the Ole Miss game, will have a procedure to clean up his knee. Lea expects him back “hopefully after the bye week,” so he’ll miss a couple of games.

    Losing two linemen in one week is how a decent gumbo turns into soup. It’s still edible, but your grandmother is going to say something.

    Up Next: The SEC Cellar Bowl

    Arkansas (2-4, 0-3 SEC) at Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3 SEC)
    Saturday, Oct. 17 · 6 p.m. CT · ESPN2 · FirstBank Stadium, Nashville (Vanderbilt’s Homecoming)

    REPORTED: Vanderbilt was a 6.5-point favorite with a 49.5 total at BetMGM, as of Oct. 16, 2026 (BetMGM). Lines are for entertainment; see our picks disclaimer. Both teams are winless in SEC play, so somebody gets out of the basement Saturday night and somebody gets to keep the folding chair down there.

    Arkansas comes in having lost 34-7 at Texas A&M and 24-17 to Tennessee, and the Hogs’ offense has been about as productive as a nutria on a treadmill. Vandy, meanwhile, won its three nonconference games and then dropped three straight to Auburn, Georgia and Ole Miss. Arkansas leads the series 7-3, but Vanderbilt won the last meeting 45-31 in 2018. The Commodores have never beaten the Razorbacks at home, and they last hosted them in 2011, back when your phone still had a keyboard.

    Players to watch for Vandy: WR Junior Sherrill (529 receiving yards, fourth in the SEC, with a catch in 43 straight games, the longest active streak in FBS), RB Sedrick Alexander (25 career rushing TDs, third in school history) and LB CJ Heard (team-high 43 tackles and two forced fumbles).

    Our official Week 7 pick: Vanderbilt 28, Arkansas 20. The Commodores win, and by our numbers they thinly cover the six. It’ll be ugly, so turn on the lights, stir the pot and keep the antacids handy.

    Sources

    Correction (Oct. 22, 2026): An earlier version described the line as about a 6-point favorite at most books with a total around 50, without naming a sportsbook. It now cites BetMGM. We also added the final result.

  • Early Bowl Gumbo: Where Every SEC Team Is Headed (If the Roux Don’t Burn)

    Early Bowl Gumbo: Where Every SEC Team Is Headed (If the Roux Don’t Burn)

    Gridiron Gumbo original projections — Oct. 13, 2026, after the Oct. 10 games (ESPN calls it Week 6). Disclosure: your humble cook bleeds maroon and rings a cowbell (Mississippi State). We graded State like everybody else. Mawmaw checked.

    How we cooked it

    These are our picks, not a copy of anybody’s. Ingredients: current overall/SEC records (ESPN standings), ESPN FPI ratings and projected final records/playoff odds, the AP poll, and the actual 2026-27 SEC bowl rules. Note: the CFP committee’s first rankings don’t drop until November, so the AP poll + FPI stand in for now.

    • CFP: 12 teams. Power 4 champs get auto bids, plus the top Group of 6 team; seven at-larges; top four ranked teams get byes.
    • SEC ladder: Citrus Bowl takes the best SEC team left after the CFP. Then the “pool of six” (ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Las Vegas, Liberty) is slotted by the SEC with schools and bowls, avoiding repeat trips. Birmingham and Gasparilla pick after that. 2026 is the SEC’s Las Vegas year in the rotation with Duke’s Mayo. Bowl tie-ins carried over from 2025 for this season.
    Playoff Pot

    The Pot, Team by Team

    Georgia (6-0, 4-0 SEC; AP No. 1)

    Projection: 12-0 / 11-1, SEC champion, top-4 CFP seed (bye). FPI has them No. 2 nationally, projecting 11.8 wins and a 95.8% playoff chance. They already won 20-17 in Tuscaloosa.
    Take: Kirby’s roux is so dark and steady it should come with a warning label. Every other fanbase is just stirring and praying, cher.

    Alabama (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 6)

    Projection: 10-2, CFP at-large, first-round home game. FPI No. 5, 81.8% playoff odds. Losing at home to Georgia doesn’t knock you out of a 12-team field.
    Take: Tide fans are treating one loss like Mawmaw found store-bought boudin in her fridge. Relax, y’all are still eating in December.

    Texas (4-1, 1-1; AP No. 7)

    Projection: 10-2, CFP at-large. FPI No. 6, 74.6% playoff odds. The Red River loss stings, but the early win over Ohio State keeps the résumé strong.
    Take: Austin lost to Oklahoma and acted like somebody put beans in their gumbo. It’s a Texas thing. We’ll allow it.

    Tennessee (5-1, 2-1; AP No. 14)

    Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large (last one in, ~No. 11-12 seed). The SEC’s best playoff odds outside the big three (FPI: 24.4%, 8.4 projected wins). This is our boldest call. They still have to play Alabama and LSU.
    Take: Rocky Top’s offense looks like a crawfish boil with no seasoning. Still gets eaten, but nobody’s bragging about it.

    Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1; AP No. 9)

    Projection: 8-4, Citrus Bowl. Highest AP rank of the non-CFP group, but FPI projects only 7.8 wins because of the back half: Missouri, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and the Egg Bowl.
    Take: Oxford’s tailgate is fancier than a Garden District wedding, but that schedule is a pot of boiling water and the Rebels are the crawfish.

    Kentucky (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 15)

    Projection: 8-4, ReliaQuest Bowl. They have two straight 35-34 overtime wins, including over LSU. FPI still rates them No. 30 and projects 7.9 wins, so we expect some regression. Next up: at Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, Florida, at Missouri, Louisville.
    Take: Lexington’s living on overtime like a man living on gas-station boudin. Delicious, reckless, and the bill comes due eventually.

    LSU (4-2, 1-2; AP No. 22)

    Projection: 8-4, Gator Bowl. FPI’s No. 8 team in the country is the most talented team in this tier, with 7.7 projected wins and 15.4% playoff odds. Two SEC losses already pretty much end any CFP hopes.
    Take: Lane Kiffin’s Year 1 in Baton Rouge is a jambalaya with every expensive ingredient and nobody minding the burner. Death Valley’s already sharpening its call-in-show voice, cher.

    Missouri (5-1, 2-1; AP No. 13)

    Projection: 8-4, Music City Bowl. FPI projects 7.9 wins, and Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss and Oklahoma are still ahead. Nashville is an easy drive for the fan base.
    Take: Mizzou fans still call the SEC “the new neighbors.” Fifteen seasons in, cher. Bring a covered dish already.

    Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1; AP No. 16) (the cook’s team, graded fair)

    Projection: 7-5, Las Vegas Bowl. FPI projects 7.6 wins and rates them No. 27, behind several SEC teams with worse records. We went with the computer and not our hearts. The 56-23 home loss to Alabama is the stain. The trip to LSU on Oct. 17 is the swing game for Jeff Lebby.
    Take: Starkville’s in Vegas with cowbells. The casinos will take every dollar but they’ll never get the ringing out of their ears. (Yes, Mawmaw is biased. She also ranked them seventh, so hush.)

    Oklahoma (3-2, 1-1)

    Projection: 7-5, Texas Bowl. The Red River win is a top-shelf ingredient, but FPI projects 7.0 wins and the back half is rough. A trip to Houston puts the Sooners in a bowl in Texas, which they’ll pretend not to enjoy.
    Take: Sooner Nation’s beat Texas and is already planning the parade. Mawmaw says don’t salt the pot before the water boils.

    Florida (4-2, 2-2)

    Projection: 7-5, Liberty Bowl. They started 4-0 (including 52-28 over Ole Miss), then lost 45-17 at Missouri and 38-19 at home to South Carolina. FPI still projects 6.6 wins with an 84.6% chance at bowl eligibility.
    Take: The Swamp went from top-10 to “check on Gator fans” faster than a pot of rice burns when you walk off. Jon Sumrall’s Year 1 roux needs a whole lotta stirring.

    Auburn (3-2, 1-2)

    Projection: 6-6, Birmingham Bowl. FPI: 6.1 projected wins, 69.4% to reach six. That’s a coin-flip-plus, and Birmingham is right up the road.
    Take: The Plains fanbase would roll Toomer’s for a bowl-eligibility clinch at this point. Low bar, cher, but it’s a bar.

    South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)

    Projection: 6-6, Gasparilla Bowl. The 38-19 win in Gainesville bought Shane Beamer some breathing room. FPI gives them a 57.3% chance at six wins. Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Georgia and Clemson are still on the schedule.
    Take: Columbia’s hot seat cooled down quicker than leftover gumbo in Mawmaw’s deep freeze. Don’t get comfortable. It thaws.

    Texas A&M (3-3, 1-3)

    Projection: 6-6, Bowl TBD (SEC backup slot). They were ranked No. 9 as recently as mid-September, but FPI now projects 5.7 wins (56.8% for six). Once the SEC tie-ins are filled, a sixth win only gets them a leftover spot.
    Take: College Station spent like a Houston oil man and is cooking like a dorm microwave. Mike Elko’s kitchen needs a health inspection.

    Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3)

    Projection: 4-8, no bowl. FPI projects 4.4 wins with a 12.6% chance at bowl eligibility.
    Take: The smartest fanbase in the league has done the math and moved on to basketball. Mawmaw respects a family that knows when the pot’s empty.

    Arkansas (2-4, 0-3)

    Projection: 3-9, no bowl. FPI projects 3.3 wins with a 1.9% chance at bowl eligibility.
    Take: Hog fans are calling the Hogs like they’re calling the coach’s buyout number. Only thing roasting in Fayetteville this fall is the boudin at the tailgate.

    The Tally

    4 CFP teams (Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee) plus 9 tie-in bowls plus Texas A&M in a TBD backup slot = 14 bowl-eligible. Vandy and Arkansas stay home.

    Where we differ from the national guys: most outlets have Ole Miss (and some Kentucky) as the SEC’s fourth playoff team. We picked Tennessee because of FPI’s projected record and playoff odds. Argue with us in the comments, cher.

    Sources (data)

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