Beat Vanderbilt on Saturday night and Will Stein’s Wildcats sit alone atop the SEC this late in a season (Week 8 or later) for the first time since Bear Bryant’s 1950 team, per the Courier Journal.1 The last Kentucky team up there finished the job in New Orleans by snapping Oklahoma’s 31-game win streak. This year’s team already took care of Oklahoma. In October.
By T-Rohn, Gridiron Gumbo · Posted Oct. 23, 2026
CONFIRMED: Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC) and Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4) records, this week’s SEC schedule, kickoff and TV; Kentucky’s No. 12 ranking (Oct. 18); the Oklahoma game; the 1950 season and 1951 Sugar Bowl; 1976-77 history; availability-report timing; odds as of 8:15 a.m. CT Friday. REPORTED: the “first since 1950” finding and scouting notes, from the Courier Journal; Clark Lea’s comments, from On3; other single-outlet details credited in text. Sources are listed at the end.
Down on the bayou we’ve got a saying about a house that sits empty too long: either somebody’s fixing to move in, or the raccoons already did. Kentucky football’s penthouse, the one marked “Alone in First Place, SEC, Week 8 or Later,” has been locked up since Harry Truman was in the White House.
Saturday night, somebody might finally get the key.
If No. 12 Kentucky beats Vanderbilt at Kroger Field (6:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network), the Wildcats will be alone in first place in the SEC this deep into a season (Week 8 or later) for the first time since 1950, the Louisville Courier Journal’s Ryan Black reported Friday. Black wrote that a win puts Kentucky at 5-1 in league play, a half-game ahead of Georgia (6-1, 4-1), which is off this week.1 No other team can reach five league wins this weekend.2
Seventy-six years. In Kentucky football time, that’s long enough for the program to go from “basketball school” to “basketball school that also has a football team” and back again about four times.
There have been near-misses. The 1976 Wildcats got a share of the SEC title only in May 1978, when an NCAA ruling forced Mississippi State to forfeit its win over Kentucky.3 The 1977 team went 6-0 in league play but was on NCAA probation and ineligible for the title; Alabama went 7-0 and won it.4, 5
The Last Tenant: Bear Bryant
The man who last held that lease was Paul “Bear” Bryant, in his fifth season in Lexington. The 1950 Wildcats went 11-1 and won the program’s first SEC championship.6, 7 Quarterback Babe Parilli was a consensus first-team All-American that year.8
The only loss that year came at Tennessee.9 Some things in the SEC, cher, never change. Only the address on the bill.
Then came the part Kentucky fans still tell their grandkids about. On Jan. 1, 1951, at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans, No. 7 Kentucky beat No. 1 Oklahoma 13-7 in the Sugar Bowl and ended the Sooners’ 31-game winning streak, the longest in the nation at the time.10, 9, 11
Bryant didn’t beat Oklahoma with a pep talk. The Sugar Bowl’s history says he threw a multi-look defense at the Sooners’ fast split-T offense that sometimes ballooned to a nine-man line, and moved a tackle named Walt Yowarsky to defense, a position the Sugar Bowl says he had played exactly once before in his life. Oklahoma fumbled on its first play. Yowarsky recovered.9
A nine-man line in New Orleans. That’s not a defense, that’s a second line at Café Du Monde on a Sunday morning, and nobody’s getting through either one.
Pause on the venue for a second, because it’s a Louisiana story too. The Wildcats’ finest hour happened in Tulane Stadium, back when Tulane was still an SEC member (it left the league in 1966).12 More than 13,000 Kentucky fans made the trip.10
Thirteen thousand fans, and every one of them went home with the same souvenir: a hoarse voice and a new appreciation for chicory coffee.
Sagarin’s computer ratings name Kentucky the 1950 national champion,6 and the NCAA’s list of past champions credits Kentucky as Sagarin’s 1950 pick.13 Kentucky fans have been bringing that up at Thanksgiving ever since. The rest of the family has been passing the potatoes and pretending not to hear.
The Oklahoma Rhyme
Here’s where it gets eerie, like a cypress swamp at dusk.
Bryant’s team built its legend by beating Oklahoma. Stein’s team got itself into this position by beating Oklahoma: Kentucky won 21-13 in Norman on Oct. 17 to pull into a tie for the SEC lead.14 The Sooners outgained the Wildcats 346 yards to 230 and still lost, because Kentucky forced four turnovers and committed none.15
Bryant needed to get to New Year’s Day to take down the Sooners. Stein did it before Halloween. The Sooners must feel like the guy at the crawfish boil who keeps getting pinched by the same bucket.
UK Athletics says Stein is the first Kentucky coach to start 6-1 in his first season since Alpha Brumage in 1913, and, in the school’s words, “the first coach ever to begin 4-1 in SEC play in his first season.”6 The SEC was founded in December 1932 and played its first football season in 1933. Stein is also on the watch list for the Paul “Bear” Bryant National Coach of the Year Award.6
So yes, the award is named after the last man to sit in the penthouse. You can’t write this stuff. Well, we can, but only because the facts did it first.
The Doorman Is Vanderbilt, and He Has a Grudge
Now for the bad news if you’re wearing blue in Lexington. The team standing between Kentucky and that empty penthouse has made a habit of walking into Kroger Field and leaving with the silverware.
Vanderbilt has won the last two meetings and three of the last four, including its last two trips to Lexington, 20-13 in 2024 and 24-21 in 2022.16 Kentucky leads the all-time series 48-45-4.2
Ninety-nine meetings since 1896. These two have been playing each other since before anybody in Louisiana had a car to tailgate out of.
Last year in Nashville it was 45-17 Vanderbilt.17 This year the shoe is on the other foot. Kentucky is 6-1 and Vanderbilt is still looking for its first SEC win. Commodores coach Clark Lea said this week his team can win if it limits penalties and protects the ball, and he praised Kentucky’s “energy and momentum,” calling it “real.”17
Food-wise it’s an even fight: Nashville brings hot chicken, Lexington brings burgoo, and the Cajun brings a sack of boudin and the quiet belief that both of y’all are under-seasoned.
Vandy also brings a receiver who doesn’t do off-nights. Wide receiver Junior Sherrill has caught at least one pass in 44 straight games, the longest active streak in FBS and the longest by a Commodore since at least 1996.16 He has 628 receiving yards this season, third among SEC players.16
Forty-four straight games with a catch. T-Rohn can’t go 44 straight minutes without dropping a boudin ball.
The books like Kentucky. As of 8:15 a.m. CT Friday, Oct. 23, DraftKings and FanDuel both had the Wildcats as 10.5-point favorites.18 Lines move, cher. Bet with your head, not your heart, and never with your mama’s gumbo money. Read our picks disclaimer: https://gridirongumbo.com/picks-disclaimer/
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
The Matchup That Probably Decides It
The Courier Journal’s scouting notes point to one big gap: Kentucky’s defense has 11 interceptions, the most in the SEC, and quarterback Kenny Minchey has thrown just one interception in seven games.1 Kentucky also won back-to-back overtime games 35-34 by converting two-pointers, against South Carolina on Oct. 3 and LSU on Oct. 10, per the AP and UK Athletics. Lea called those decisions to go for two “gutsy.”17 When the other coach is complimenting your nerve, the gumbo’s already got some heat in it.
Vandy’s best counterpunches, according to the same Courier Journal piece, are history and special teams. Punter Tyler Ebel leads the SEC in yards per punt, and Josiah Broxton and Austin Howard have each returned a punt for a touchdown this season.1
Check the SEC availability report before kickoff. Under league policy, Friday’s update is due by 7 p.m. CT, and a game-day update posts no later than 90 minutes before kickoff.19
The T-Rohn Take
Here’s what makes this one worth a bowl of gumbo. Every Kentucky season has a “this is the year” moment, and it usually lasts about as long as a snowball on a Lafayette sidewalk in August. This one is different because it comes with a receipt dated 1950.
Most fans keep receipts in a shoebox. Kentucky keeps this one framed in the den, next to the basketball banners, which needed a bigger den.
Win Saturday and Kentucky doesn’t just keep winning. It walks into a room no Wildcat team has stood in alone this late in a season (Week 8 or later, by the Courier Journal’s count) since Babe Parilli was slinging it, Bear Bryant was stacking nine guys on the line, and the Sugar Bowl was still played in Tulane’s yard.
Lose, and Vanderbilt does to Kentucky what Vanderbilt has done in Lexington the last two times it showed up: eats the gumbo, compliments the roux and leaves the dishes.
Either way, somebody turn the lights on in that penthouse, cher. Seventy-six years of dust is a lot of dust.
And if the place is still on the market Sunday, the listing doesn’t change a word: original 1950 fixtures, panoramic league views, motivated seller.
The SEC’s top two receivers in yards meet Oct. 31 in Fayetteville. One of them grew up in Missouri City, Texas. The other plays for Missouri. And Arkansas just changed punters to help settle it.
By T-Rohn, Gridiron Gumbo · Posted Oct. 22, 2026
CONFIRMED: Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21, records (Arkansas 3-4, 1-3 SEC) and the Vanderbilt box score per AP/ESPN; Oct. 31 kickoff, series history and Marshall’s background per Arkansas Athletics; Missouri’s record and Ole Miss result per Missouri Athletics; Silverfield’s Marshall update and the punter change per the Southwest Times Record and Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, with the Marshall update also reported by On3 and SI. REPORTED: details credited to single outlets (Southwest Times Record, Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, On3, SI, cfbstats.com) in text.
Down on the bayou, we’ve got a rule about Halloween: Nobody shows up in costume to somebody else’s party unless they plan on taking the candy.
Arkansas plans to take the candy.
TAKE (joke): Missouri, for its part, plans to leave with the bowl and the porch light.
TAKE (joke): The Hogs have a week off, a receiver on the way back, a new punter and a costume party at home. Mais, that’s the most optimism Fayetteville has had since somebody found an extra bag of ice under the tailgate.
Arkansas expects Chris Marshall back for Missouri. We looked at who he’ll be lining up across from, where he grew up and what Arkansas looks like with and without him. Halloween night comes with a twist.
The Update
Arkansas coach Ryan Silverfield gave a short, upbeat update on Wednesday during the open week. “(Marshall’s) doing well,” he said. “Yeah, we have every thought and faith that he’ll be ready to go for the Missouri game,” per the Southwest Times Record. On3’s HawgBeat and SI’s All Hogs reported the same quote.
Here’s the injury news, straight: Marshall hurt his right leg in the first quarter at Vanderbilt and was seen with a trainer during breaks, the Times Record reported. He left for good after a 28-yard catch on a screen late in the second quarter, according to the Times Record and On3. On3 reported he watched the second half from the sideline in street clothes.
That 28-yard grab was his only catch of the night. He still sits second in the SEC with 633 receiving yards, per Sports-Reference and On3. The Times Record ranks those yards 11th nationally.
TAKE (joke): Eleventh in the nation. That’s higher than any Fayetteville hill a 2009 Pontiac Aztek has ever made it up in January.
The Twist: Who’s No. 1?
The only SEC receiver with more yards than Marshall? Missouri’s Cayden Lee, with 678 on 47 catches and five touchdowns, per Sports-Reference and cfbstats.com.
So Halloween night in Fayetteville puts the SEC’s No. 1 and No. 2 receivers on the same field. Then it gets better.
Marshall is from Missouri City, Texas, per Arkansas Athletics. He played his high school ball at Fort Bend Marshall. Yes: Marshall from Marshall, out of Missouri City, trying to beat Missouri.
TAKE (joke): Cher, that’s not a matchup. That’s a riddle my Mawmaw would tell at the boucherie, then refuse to explain until you took a second plate of boudin.
One more crossover: Lee played at Ole Miss from 2023 to 2025, per Missouri Athletics and Sports-Reference. Marshall spent the spring 2023 semester in Oxford too, per Arkansas’ official bio. Small SEC.
TAKE (joke): Oxford, Fayetteville, Columbia. The SEC isn’t a conference anymore. It’s a group text with a roster.
The Long Road to 633
Marshall’s résumé reads like a Cajun road trip: lots of stops, all of them worth it. According to his official Arkansas bio, he started at Texas A&M in 2022, spent the spring 2023 semester at Ole Miss, caught 21 passes for 449 yards and five touchdowns at Kilgore College in 2023, then went to Boise State. The same bio credits him with 574 yards on 30 catches for the Broncos in 2025.
Seven games into 2026 he already has 633, per cfbstats.com. His biggest nights came at home: 136 yards against Georgia and 195 against Tulsa.
TAKE (joke): Those two games drew the kind of home crowd you usually only see at a Fayetteville stoplight on Dickson Street: loud, proud and not moving for anybody.
One more number: Arkansas has 1,620 passing yards as a team, per cfbstats.com. Marshall has 633 of them. That’s about 39% of the Hogs’ passing offense coming from one man.
TAKE (joke): That’s not a No. 1 receiver. That’s the roux. Everything else in the pot is just waiting on him.
What Happened Without Him
Arkansas found out at Vanderbilt. With Marshall gone since late in the second quarter, the Hogs outscored Vanderbilt 17-7 in the second half and won 31-21, snapping a 14-game SEC losing streak, per the AP recap on ESPN. It was Arkansas’ first SEC win since 2024 and the first in the league for Silverfield.
KJ Jackson went 21-of-31 for 251 yards with no interceptions, per AP. The ESPN box score shows 12 different Razorbacks catching passes. Sophomore Antonio Jordan led the way with career highs of five catches for 74 yards, per the Times Record, On3 and the box score.
The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette noted Jackson’s 67.7% completion rate was well above the 59.8% he carried into the game.
TAKE (joke): A jump from 59.8% to 67.7% in one night. Somewhere a Missouri defensive coordinator just set his coffee down, picked up his clipboard and moved his Halloween plans to Tuesday.
Silverfield said it’s “hard to blame” Jackson for looking Marshall’s way, but said the quarterback has to “trust the full reads,” per SI’s All Hogs.
TAKE (joke): Translation: When your best friend has the truck, you call him first. But it’s nice to learn your cousin has a truck too.
The Punter Switch
Now the leg. Silverfield named Cal Poly transfer Jesse Ehrlich the starting punter, with Gavin Rush backing him up, according to the Times Record and the Democrat-Gazette.
“Right now, Jesse’s the starting punter, and Gavin’s going to back him up,” Silverfield said, per the Democrat-Gazette.
The numbers explain why. At Vanderbilt, Ehrlich came in at halftime and punted twice for 51 and 42 yards, the Democrat-Gazette reported. The ESPN box score backs that up: two punts, 46.5-yard average, one touchback and one inside the 20. On the season he has three punts for 147 yards in two games, a 49.0 average, per cfbstats.com (through Oct. 21). That means his other punt, in an earlier game, went 54 yards.
As a team, Arkansas averages 40.45 yards per punt, compared with 43.90 for its opponents, per cfbstats.com. Missouri’s punters average 44.76, per cfbstats.com. In a game where the Hogs need every blade of grass, a few yards a kick adds up.
Ehrlich is a fifth-year left-footer from Cal Poly, per the Democrat-Gazette. ESPN lists Melbourne, Australia, as his birthplace, and the Times Record also reported he’s from Australia.
TAKE (joke): Melbourne to Fayetteville is a fair hike. He’s swapped beaches for the Ozarks, the ocean for Beaver Lake and the Southern Hemisphere for Waffle House hash browns that come smothered, covered and, somehow, in a hurry.
Silverfield made a point of saying specialists have their ups and downs week to week. Rush, who has handled 27 of Arkansas’ 31 punts this season per cfbstats.com, is still right there as the backup. (The 31st is a 14-yard punt credited to “Team.”)
TAKE (joke): Arkansas went to Australia for a punter. Down here we’d have just asked the guy at the crawfish boil who can throw a cooler the farthest, but sure, Melbourne works too.
TAKE (joke): Welcome to Arkansas, Jesse. Learn the Hog call, learn the back roads and learn that in October the weather here changes faster than the punt depth chart.
What’s at Stake
Missouri (5-2, 2-2 SEC) is coming off a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss, per Missouri Athletics. It dropped from No. 13 to No. 22 in the AP poll, SI reported. The Tigers are 4-0 at home and 1-2 away from Columbia, per cfbstats.com, with both losses coming in SEC road games.
SI’s All Hogs reported Missouri is allowing 263.8 passing yards per game against SEC opponents. That’s a door Marshall would love to walk through.
But Missouri brings plenty of firepower of its own. Lee and Donovan Olugbode (534 yards) give the Tigers two of the SEC’s top five receivers by yards, per cfbstats.com (through Oct. 21).
The history isn’t in Arkansas’ favor. Missouri leads the Battle Line Rivalry 13-4, per Arkansas Athletics. The Hogs haven’t beaten the Tigers since a 34-17 win on Nov. 26, 2021. This will be the 18th meeting, the sixth in Fayetteville and the first night game between the two ever played in Arkansas.
Note: Records differ by source. Arkansas Athletics lists Missouri up 13-4 with this as the 18th meeting, while 247Sports lists 12-4 and the 17th meeting. We go with the school’s official count.
TAKE (joke): Missouri fans will remind you of that 13-4 record at the gas station, the grocery store and the dentist’s chair, mid-cleaning.
The math is simple. At 3-4 with five games left, Arkansas needs three more wins to reach bowl eligibility. Missouri’s next four after this one are Texas, at Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma.
TAKE (joke): Meanwhile, Columbia traffic on a game day is the only thing in mid-Missouri slower than a Kansas City barbecue argument ending.
TAKE (joke): For Arkansas, Halloween is a must-win. For Missouri, it’s the only weekend on the rest of the calendar that isn’t a haunted house.
Up Next
Missouri at Arkansas, Saturday, Oct. 31, 6:45 p.m. Central on SEC Network, at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, per Arkansas Athletics.
The SEC’s top two receivers. A hometown riddle. A punter from Melbourne. Laissez les bons temps rouler, y’all. Just don’t eat all the candy before kickoff.
Oklahoma racked up 346 yards to Kentucky’s 230, and the Wildcats won anyway. Four takeaways and a late pick-six later, the first-year coach has a 6-1 team, a five-game win streak and a share of the SEC lead.
CONFIRMED: result and records per AP/ESPN. REPORTED: details credited to single outlets in text.
Every swamp-raised kid learns one thing early: the gator that looks asleep is the one that eats your dog. Kentucky played Saturday night in Norman like that gator, half-submerged for three quarters. Then it bit.
In fairness to Oklahoma, nobody in Norman was expecting a gator from Lexington. Kentucky’s fan base wasn’t either. Half of them were still checking basketball recruiting rankings.
No. 15 Kentucky beat Oklahoma 21-13 on Oct. 17 and moved into a tie for the Southeastern Conference lead, according to the Associated Press. The Wildcats (6-1, 4-1 SEC) have won five straight and pulled even with Georgia after the Bulldogs fell to Auburn. On Sunday they climbed to No. 12 in the AP poll, per WUKY.
Tied for first in the SEC in football, in October. Lexington authorities have advised residents not to make any sudden movements.
Plenty of folks will tell you Kentucky is “for real.” We’re more interested in how they’re doing it, because the box score from Norman reads like a losing team’s. Kentucky won that game the way a Cajun wins at bourré: patience, a little nerve, and taking the pot at the very end.
Bourré, for the uninitiated, is the card game where you can lose the pot, your truck, and your dignity before the gumbo’s done. Kentucky took the pot.
The Yardage Lie
Per ESPN’s box score, Oklahoma outgained Kentucky 346 yards to 230, had 19 first downs to Kentucky’s 14, and held the ball 31:24 to 28:36. UK Wildcats Wire’s Lee Ann Herring Olvedo wrote that the Sooners kept the ball in Kentucky’s half for long stretches. Most weeks, that’s a loss with a long bus ride home.
Oklahoma basically rented Kentucky’s half of the field, put up curtains, and still got evicted at the end of the lease.
Not this time. Asked about the stat sheet, Will Stein said up front in his postgame remarks that stats are for losers, Wildcats Wire reported. Hard to argue when the scoreboard backs you up.
The ESPN line score shows the shape of it: Kentucky 7-0-0-14, Oklahoma 3-7-3-0. The Wildcats went more than two quarters without scoring and then put up 14 in the fourth while the defense pitched a shutout over the final 15 minutes.
Two scoreless quarters in the middle. Kentucky’s offense took the longest halftime in the history of the sport and nobody told the television people.
The Defense Ran a Trap Line
The AP said, and ESPN’s box score backs up the count of four Oklahoma turnovers, that Kentucky intercepted Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer three times and holder Jacob Ulrich once. That fourth one deserves its own paragraph.
In the second quarter, Oklahoma lined up for a 28-yard field goal and tried a fake, with Ulrich throwing. Jordan Castell was waiting and picked it off, wiping out three points the Sooners all but had in hand and keeping Kentucky ahead 7-3, per Wildcats Wire. Down here we call that stealing the shrimp right off your plate.
A fake field goal in the SEC: the football equivalent of telling your mama you already cleaned your room. It works great until somebody opens the door.
Oklahoma answered with a 90-yard, 12-play drive capped by Mateer’s 20-yard touchdown pass to Rocky Beers for a 10-7 halftime lead, then added a 26-yard field goal in the third quarter for 13-7. Then came the turn. Late in the third quarter, with 3:10 to go, Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace hit Mateer’s arm mid-throw. The pass fluttered, and Ty Bryant intercepted it and brought it back deep into Oklahoma territory, according to Wildcats Wire.
Sooner fans, at this point, were already looking up how much a field storm costs in their new conference. Patience, y’all. The rate card is flat.
Kentucky’s offense finally woke up. A seven-play, 44-yard drive ended with Willie Rodriguez catching a 12-yard touchdown from Kenny Minchey for a 14-13 lead with 12:53 left, per ESPN. On Oklahoma’s next series, the Kentucky defense forced a punt without a first down.
Like a Lexington alarm clock: it doesn’t go off for a while, then it goes off all at once and you’ve got 14 points and a crick in your neck.
The finisher came with 1:17 left. On third-and-6 at the Oklahoma 32, Castell jumped a Mateer throw and returned it 41 yards for a touchdown, according to the AP and Wildcats Wire. Wildcats Wire noted it was the first pick-six of Stein’s tenure. Bryant grabbed his second interception with 21 seconds left to close it out. That’s four takeaways on the night, and zero Kentucky turnovers, per ESPN.
Somewhere in Kentucky a fan base that usually spends November arguing about point guards had to sit down on the porch steps.
ESPN credits Castell with the pick-six, and Wildcats Wire credits him with the fake-field-goal interception too. That would give him two of the four takeaways, and both of the game-changing ones. Somebody get that young man a plate of étouffée.
The Coach Who Admits It
Here’s what we like about this one. Stein didn’t pretend his own call was perfect.
Up 14-13 with a fourth down just outside the Oklahoma goal line, Stein went for it. Minchey was sacked. Afterward, per Wildcats Wire and 247Sports, Stein said: “Part of me wishes we would have kicked the field goal at that point, just because it would have put us up four.”
A head coach in the SEC owning a decision out loud, in his first season? Mon ami, that’s rarer than a quiet Saturday night on Bourbon Street. His defense covered for it with another three-and-out, then the pick-six made it a moot point.
Most SEC decisions get explained the way a Louisiana mechanic explains a bill: lots of words, no admissions, and somehow it’s the weather’s fault.
Minchey finished 21 of 28 for 158 yards and two touchdowns, both to Rodriguez, per ESPN. It wasn’t flashy. It was efficient, and that was enough.
The Road Is Where Kentucky Lives Now
This is the part that sets Kentucky apart. CBS Sports’ Austin Nivison, who moved the Wildcats from sixth to third in his SEC Power Rankings, noted Norman was Kentucky’s third conference road win. He listed the road wins as Texas A&M, South Carolina and Oklahoma, and called the win over LSU the marquee result. Nivison wrote that “all of those wins came on the road in extremely hostile environments.”
Kentucky’s road schedule this year reads like a bus driver’s revenge tour. The program has seen more hostile stadiums than a traveling tuba section.
Nivison, writing for CBS Sports, also pointed to the analytics: Kentucky is 20th in adjusted EPA per play and second in strength of record, citing ESPN FPI. He also wrote, “At some point, we have to throw out preseason expectations and accept that Kentucky might just be a really good football team.”
Gators Wire’s power rankings had Kentucky third as well and noted the only loss came against Alabama. That puts Kentucky in a firm position to make the SEC title game in its first season under Stein.
Think about where the rest of the league is. In the same weekend, No. 1 Georgia lost at home to Auburn, No. 6 Alabama lost at Tennessee, and No. 7 Texas lost to Florida. Ranked teams were dropping like overcooked crawfish. Meanwhile Kentucky went into a hostile building, got outgained by more than 100 yards, and still came home with the W. In a season this messy, a team that does that has something worth more than a pretty stat line.
The AP Top 10 last weekend was less a poll and more a casualty list from a bayou-side tailgate that ran out of ice.
Next Up: Vanderbilt
Kentucky’s next game is against Vanderbilt. Nivison already has a forecast: “just brace yourselves for Will Stein leading 7-1 Kentucky into November.”
Vanderbilt fans, a famously calm people who mostly storm the library, are said to be ready either way.
Is Kentucky a true SEC heavyweight? The yardage says “show me.” The scoreboard, the turnover margin and the standings say “already did.” T-Rohn’s take: in a league where everybody’s grandmama is losing at home, the team that keeps winning on the road gets a seat at the head of the table.
Gridiron Gumbo original projections — Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026, after the Oct. 17 games (Week 7). Second stir of the pot; last week’s Early Bowl Gumbo is here. Disclosure: your humble cook still bleeds maroon and rings a cowbell (Mississippi State). State got graded like everybody else, and after Saturday in Baton Rouge, that is not a favor.
Last week we had four SEC teams in the Playoff Pot. Then the No. 1 team in the country lost at home to an unranked Auburn, Tennessee sat on Alabama for four quarters, and Florida walked into Austin and walked out with a win. The AP’s top team has now lost in back-to-back weeks to unranked opponents, which NCAA.com says has happened only five times ever. (CONFIRMED) So we dumped the whole pot out on the newspaper and started over.
How we cooked it
These are our picks, not a copy or an average of anybody else’s bowl projections. Ingredients, all pulled Oct. 20:
Records and results through the Oct. 17 games (ESPN standings, cross-checked against the CollegeFootballData.com game log).
Ratings: ESPN FPI (updated Oct. 20) and SP+ (via CollegeFootballData.com). Both measure points above an average team.
The Gumbo Model: we average each SEC team’s FPI and SP+ rating, give the home team 2.5 points, turn every remaining game into a win probability and simulate the rest of the season 20,000 times. Projected records below are those simulated wins rounded, not a game-by-game “favorite always wins” list (that would have LSU going 10-2, which happens in only 14% of our sims).
The AP poll (Oct. 18). The CFP committee’s first rankings don’t come out until Tuesday, Nov. 3, so the AP poll and the ratings stand in for now. (CONFIRMED)
The rules of the pot (re-checked this week):
CFP: Still 12 teams for 2026-27. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get in, plus the highest-ranked champion from the other conferences, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. The top four ranked teams get first-round byes. (CONFIRMED)
SEC ladder: The Citrus Bowl takes the best SEC team left after the Playoff. Next is the “pool of six” (ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Las Vegas, Liberty), which the SEC slots with the schools and bowls while avoiding repeat trips. Birmingham and Gasparilla pick after that. Bowl tie-ins were carried over from 2025 for this one season, and 2026 is the SEC’s turn in Las Vegas in its rotation with the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. (CONFIRMED)
The Playoff Pot (CFP summary)
Georgia — SEC champion, top-four seed with a first-round bye. We have Georgia beating Tennessee in Atlanta.
Tennessee — at-large after losing the SEC title game. Projected 9-3 in the regular season.
Ole Miss — at-large. Projected 9-3. New this week.
Alabama — at-large, the last SEC team in. Projected 9-3, and the bubble is right under its feet.
First team out: Texas. FPI and SP+ still rate the Longhorns as a top-eight team, but they’re 1-2 in the league. Saturday’s Ole Miss at Texas game is basically a trade: the winner probably takes the spot.
TAKE: Four SEC teams is our call, same number as last week, with two new names. The SEC has nine teams in the AP Top 25, but the highest is Georgia at No. 5, behind Miami, BYU, Ohio State and Notre Dame. That’s a lot of competition for seven at-large spots, so a fifth SEC team would need chaos somewhere else.
Who Moved
▲ Ole Miss: Citrus → CFP at-large. Beat Missouri 31-3 and jumped to No. 7 in the AP poll. 63% of our sims end with 9 or more wins.
▼ Texas: CFP at-large → Texas Bowl. Lost to Oklahoma, then 27-24 at home to Florida. Two league losses in a nine-game SEC schedule leaves no room for error.
▲ Tennessee: last team in → SEC title game plus a safe at-large spot. Beat Alabama 26-10 and has the league’s second-best path to Atlanta in our sims (34%).
▼ Alabama: 10-2 with a home playoff game → 9-3 and the last SEC team in. Lost back-to-back games, and our model makes the Tide an underdog at LSU on Nov. 7.
▲ LSU: Gator → Citrus. Shut out Mississippi State 31-0. SP+ rates LSU No. 6 in the country, and our model makes the Tigers favorites in all five remaining games.
▲ Auburn: Birmingham → Liberty. Won 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia and now projects to 7-5.
▲ Florida: Liberty → ReliaQuest. The 27-24 win at Texas gives the Gators wins over Ole Miss, Texas and Auburn.
▼ Oklahoma: Texas Bowl → Birmingham. Lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky and is 3-3, with six wins a 62% proposition in our sims.
The Pot, Team by Team
Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC; AP No. 5)
Projection: 10-2, SEC champion, top-four CFP seed (bye).■ STEADY on the destination, down from last week’s 12-0/11-1 on the record. The data: Lost 27-24 at home to Auburn. Still the SEC’s highest-rated team in both systems (FPI No. 3, SP+ No. 2). Our sims put Georgia in Atlanta 85% of the time, and it wins out 41% of the time. The toughest remaining game is Nov. 7 at Ole Miss (Georgia 67% in our model). FPI gives them a 78.1% playoff chance. TAKE: Kirby Smart’s sideline face Saturday could’ve curdled a pot of milk from across the stadium. Calm down, Athens. Y’all lost one game, not the deed to the house.
Tennessee (6-1, 3-1; AP No. 11)
Projection: 9-3, loses the SEC title game to Georgia, CFP at-large.▲ UP from last week’s last-team-in. The data: Beat Alabama 26-10. The only loss is 20-17 to Texas. FPI No. 12, SP+ No. 13. Remaining games, with Tennessee’s chance in our model: at South Carolina (63%), Kentucky (76%), at Texas A&M (60%), LSU (43%, its only game as an underdog) and at Vanderbilt (86%). 79% of our sims end with nine or more wins. TAKE: Knoxville’s already printing “SEC Champs” shirts in that traffic-cone orange that makes Mawmaw’s eyes water. Josh Heupel, unplug the printer, cher. Atlanta’s still a month off.
Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 7)
Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large.▲ UP from the Citrus Bowl. The data: Beat Missouri 31-3. The only loss is 52-28 at Florida. FPI No. 11, SP+ No. 14, FPI playoff odds 43.6%. The back half is no picnic: at Texas (31%), Auburn (75%), Georgia (33%), at Oklahoma (61%), Wofford and the Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State (81%). Our projected losses are the Texas and Georgia games. Win either one and this goes from bubble to comfortable. TAKE: Grove folks are already pricing December hotel rooms in their Sunday seersucker. Pete Golding, keep ’em off the balcony until the committee actually says something.
Alabama (5-2, 3-2; AP No. 13)
Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large (last SEC team in).▼ DOWN from 10-2 and a home playoff game. The data: Lost 20-17 to Georgia and 26-10 at Tennessee. Wins include 45-17 at Kentucky and 56-23 at Mississippi State. The ratings still love the Tide (FPI No. 6, 49.5% playoff odds; SP+ No. 12). Remaining: Texas A&M (81%), at LSU (39%), at Vanderbilt (91%), Chattanooga and Auburn (82%). A loss in Baton Rouge puts them at 9-3, with the committee doing the math. TAKE: Tuscaloosa’s call-in shows are running hotter than a crawfish pot with the lid clamped down. Kalen DeBoer’s gonna need a bigger net for all them complaints.
LSU (5-2, 2-2; AP No. 18)
Projection: 8-4, Citrus Bowl.▲ UP from the Gator Bowl. The data: Beat Mississippi State 31-0. The losses are 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 at Kentucky. SP+ No. 6 (second in the SEC only to Georgia) and FPI No. 8. Our model makes LSU the favorite in every remaining game (at Auburn 74%, Alabama 61%, Texas 58%, at Tennessee 57%, at Arkansas 92%), but stacking up that many 60-40 games still averages out to about 8.4 wins. Two SEC losses already make the Playoff a long shot (FPI: 28.5%). The highest-rated team left after the Playoff is the obvious Citrus pick. TAKE: Ten days ago Death Valley wanted Lane Kiffin’s head on a boudin platter. Now the same callers are booking Orlando condos. Fair-weather fans on the bayou? Never heard of ’em, cher.
Kentucky (6-1, 4-1; AP No. 12)
Projection: 8-4, Gator Bowl.■ STEADY: still a pool-of-six team, but the bowl changes from ReliaQuest to Gator. The data: Tied for first, with five straight wins capped by 21-13 at Oklahoma. The only loss was 45-17 to Alabama. But the ratings aren’t buying it: FPI No. 26 and SP+ No. 45, the lowest of the top seven teams in the standings. Remaining: Vanderbilt (81%), at Tennessee (24%), Florida (53%), at Missouri (36%) and Louisville (50%). FPI gives them 39.4% playoff odds. Our blend is more skeptical because SP+ rates them so much lower. TAKE: Lexington’s tied for first in the SEC in late October, so every bourbon shop in town is down to the bottom shelf. Will Stein, the raccoon’s still on the bricks, but somebody just turned on the porch light.
Texas (4-2, 1-2; AP No. 19)
Projection: 8-4, Texas Bowl.▼ DOWN from a CFP at-large. The data: Lost 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 at home to Florida, after September wins over Ohio State (24-23) and at Tennessee (20-17). FPI No. 7 (41.0% playoff odds) and SP+ No. 8, so the talent is real. Our model favors Texas in five of six remaining games: Ole Miss (69%), Mississippi State (88%), at Missouri (69%), at LSU (42%), Arkansas (96%) and at Texas A&M (72%). Still, only 47% of our sims reach nine wins. Along with LSU, they’re the best-rated team we have outside the Playoff. Beat Ole Miss Saturday and the two programs likely swap spots. TAKE: Steve Sarkisian says everything in Austin is getting evaluated. Mawmaw says start with the seasoning, cher. That budget buys a lot of cayenne.
Florida (5-2, 3-2; AP No. 20)
Projection: 8-4, ReliaQuest Bowl.▲ UP from 7-5 and the Liberty Bowl. The data: Won 27-24 at Texas. That gives the Gators three résumé wins (Ole Miss 52-28, at Auburn 44-39, at Texas) to go with losses at Missouri (45-17) and vs. South Carolina (38-19). FPI No. 19, SP+ No. 38. Remaining: at Georgia (14%), Oklahoma (58%), at Kentucky (47%), Vanderbilt (84%) and at Florida State (62%). TAKE: Gator Nation went from “fire somebody” to “book the bowl trip” in two Saturdays. That’s the fastest mood swing in Florida since the Publix deli ran out of sub rolls. Jon Sumrall’s roux is finally browning.
Missouri (5-2, 2-2; AP No. 22)
Projection: 7-5, Music City Bowl.▼ DOWN a win (8-4 → 7-5), same bowl. The data: Lost 31-3 at Ole Miss. Still 4-0 at home. FPI No. 27, SP+ No. 20. Remaining: at Arkansas (77%), Texas (31%), at Georgia (12%), Kentucky (64%) and Oklahoma (61%). Nashville stays an easy drive. TAKE: The Show-Me State finally has a demand for Eli Drinkwitz: show us a touchdown from the 2-yard line. Bring a covered dish to Nashville anyway, y’all.
Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2; receiving votes) (the cook’s team, graded fair)
Projection: 7-5, Las Vegas Bowl.■ STEADY on record and bowl, even though the computers now like State less. The data: Lost 31-0 at LSU and fell out of the AP Top 25 (was No. 16). FPI dropped to No. 38, the lowest of any SEC team we project to a bowl; SP+ has them No. 47. The early wins still count: at South Carolina 41-34, Missouri 31-24, at Minnesota 38-13. The path to 7-5: Tennessee Tech and Vanderbilt (77%) at home, plus one of two home coin flips, Oklahoma (48%) and Auburn (49%). FPI gives them a 92.2% shot at bowl eligibility. TAKE: Starkville’s cowbells went so quiet in Baton Rouge you could hear a crawfish sneeze. Jeff Lebby, when you’re inside the 40, Mawmaw says take the three points and say thank you. (Disclosure: the cook rang his into a pillow all weekend.)
Auburn (4-2, 2-2; receiving votes)
Projection: 7-5, Liberty Bowl.▲ UP from 6-6 and the Birmingham Bowl. The data: Won 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia with a field goal as time expired. Losses are 44-39 to Florida and 24-14 at Tennessee. FPI No. 21 (96.2% for six wins), SP+ No. 40. The back half is brutal: LSU (26%), at Ole Miss (25%), Arkansas (83%), at Mississippi State (51%), Samford and at Alabama (18%). TAKE: Auburn folks rolled Toomer’s so hard after Athens that Lee County is rationing toilet paper like it’s hurricane season. Alex Golesh won’t buy his own supper till Easter.
Oklahoma (3-3, 1-2)
Projection: 6-6, Birmingham Bowl.▼ DOWN from 7-5 and the Texas Bowl. The data: Lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky. The other losses are at Michigan (17-10) and at Georgia (41-13), and the big win is 27-24 over Texas. FPI No. 22, SP+ No. 34. FPI puts six wins at 65.0%, and we have it at 62%. Remaining: at Mississippi State (52%), South Carolina (59%), at Florida (42%), Ole Miss (39%), Texas A&M (57%) and at Missouri (39%). TAKE: Last week Sooner Nation was planning a parade. Now Brent Venables’ parade route runs straight to Birmingham, and the band’s down to one kazoo.
South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)
Projection: 6-6, Gasparilla Bowl.■ STEADY. The data: Had a week off. The SEC losses are 41-34 to Mississippi State, 49-18 at Alabama and 35-34 to Kentucky, and the win is 38-19 at Florida. FPI No. 29, SP+ No. 32. FPI puts bowl eligibility at 56.9%, and we have it at 62%. Remaining: Tennessee (37%), at Oklahoma (41%), Texas A&M (55%), at Arkansas (72%), Georgia (17%) and at Clemson (62%). TAKE: Columbia’s bowl hopes are a 6-6 coin flip, and somehow Gamecock fans already know which ref is gonna blow it. Shane Beamer, keep the visor on and the antacids close.
Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3)
Projection: 6-6, bowl TBD (SEC backup slot).■ STEADY. The data: Beat The Citadel 41-0. The SEC losses are to Kentucky (31-21), at LSU (35-6) and at Missouri (27-6). FPI rates them better than their record (No. 20, 61.1% for six wins), and SP+ has them No. 33. They need two wins from at Alabama (19%), at South Carolina (45%), Tennessee (40%), at Oklahoma (43%) and Texas (28%), and they’re the underdog in all five. If all 14 teams get to six wins, the SEC’s tie-ins run out of seats, so A&M lands in a leftover bowl. TAKE: College Station’s got the budget of a Houston oil company and the October of a church-league softball team. Mike Elko’s kitchen still smells like burnt roux.
Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4)
Projection: 4-8, no bowl.■ STEADY. The data: Four straight losses, the latest 31-21 at home to Arkansas. FPI No. 66 (2.8% bowl odds), SP+ No. 71. They’d need three wins from at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, Alabama, at Florida and Tennessee, and our model doesn’t favor them in any of the five. TAKE: Vandy fans ran the bowl math, double-checked it, showed their work, and quietly bought basketball tickets. Clark Lea, at least the library’s open late.
Arkansas (3-4, 1-3)
Projection: 4-8, no bowl.■ STEADY on the destination, up a win from last week’s 3-9. The data: Won 31-21 at Vanderbilt for their first SEC win of the year. FPI No. 58 (4.4% bowl odds), SP+ No. 82. They’re the underdog in all five remaining games: Missouri, at Auburn, South Carolina, at Texas and LSU. TAKE: Ryan Silverfield got his first SEC win and Fayetteville called the Hogs so loud the cows in Missouri stopped giving milk. In the Ozarks, cher, 4-8 counts as a rebuilding plan with a tailgate.
The Tally
4 CFP teams (Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama), plus Citrus (LSU), plus the pool of six (Florida–ReliaQuest, Kentucky–Gator, Texas–Texas Bowl, Missouri–Music City, Mississippi State–Las Vegas, Auburn–Liberty), plus Birmingham (Oklahoma) and Gasparilla (South Carolina), plus Texas A&M in a backup slot. That’s 14 bowl-eligible teams, the same as last week. Vanderbilt and Arkansas stay home.
Where the computers argue with us: FPI gives Texas (41.0%) and Kentucky (39.4%) playoff odds right next to Ole Miss (43.6%) and Tennessee (44.7%). We went with Ole Miss because of its schedule and SP+. If Texas wins Saturday, we’ll eat the crow, cher. It goes great with rice.
Games that move the pot this week (Oct. 24): Ole Miss at Texas (a playoff spot is basically on the line), Tennessee at South Carolina, LSU at Auburn, Oklahoma at Mississippi State (a 52-48 coin flip in our model), and Texas A&M at Alabama.
2026-27 bowl tie-ins carried over from 2025 (Coca-Cola Bowl Season): Yahoo Sports/FanSided
SEC selection order for 2026 (Citrus → pool of six incl. Las Vegas → Birmingham/Gasparilla) and top-four byes: Yardbarker/Athlon (rules only, not picks); Las Vegas/Duke’s Mayo alternation: Wikipedia, Bids to college bowl games
2026 head coaches: CollegeFootballData.com /coaches
Gridiron Gumbo: SEC football, seasoned in Southwest Louisiana. Projections are our own TAKE built on the data above. Records and ratings are CONFIRMED as of Oct. 20, 2026.
Gridiron Gumbo | SEC Week 7 Recap: games of Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 | Posted Sunday night, Oct. 18, 2026
By Rohn Dixon, reporting from Southwest Louisiana, where the roux is dark, the mosquitoes are organized, and the takes are hotter than a boiling pot at a church crawfish fundraiser
Before We Stir the Pot: A Disclosure
Full transparency, cher: I bleed maroon. Mississippi State is my team, and I’ve been a Bulldog ever since a few LSU road trips to Starkville made me fall for the place. That means two things. One, I know heartbreak like a Cajun knows humidity. Two, in this kitchen State goes in the same pot as everybody else, and this week I turned the burner all the way up on my own boys. You’ll see.
Now, what a Saturday. For the second straight week, the No. 1 team in the country got dunked in the roux by an unranked SEC team. Last week it was Texas falling to Oklahoma. This week Auburn walked into Athens and walked out with Georgia’s crown on a field goal as time expired. Per Sportradar, it’s the first time the AP’s No. 1 team has lost in back-to-back weeks since October 1990. Alabama lost its second straight game, too. Texas lost its second straight. Florida, left for dead two weeks ago, rose up like a gator out of a drainage ditch in Austin. Arkansas finally won an SEC game. And Kentucky, the team that keeps winning games it has no business winning, is now tied with Georgia for first place in the SEC. Mawmaw dropped her rosary twice.
Cajun Commentary: The throne in this league has a revolving door and a squeaky hinge. Nobody’s safe, nobody’s clean, and everybody’s got gumbo on their good shirt.
There were seven SEC-vs-SEC games plus one nonconference game, no SEC games Thursday or Friday, and one team on a bye (South Carolina). By Sunday the SEC still had nine teams in the AP Top 25, but the highest one is Georgia, down at No. 5.
Grab a bowl, a sleeve of saltines, and a can of bug spray. Here’s the whole league.
Cajun roast: Auburn came into Athens as a 19.5-point underdog (DraftKings closing line). Georgia fans had the victory boudin warming in the slow cooker by kickoff. Auburn ate it, licked the plate, and asked where the cracklins were.
Down 14-0 in the first quarter, Auburn could’ve folded like a cheap lawn chair at a crawfish boil. Instead the Tigers scored 24 straight points, starting with a trick play: Byrum Brown pitched to receiver Christian Neptune, who threw a touchdown pass to Keshaun Singleton. Brown ran it like a 235-pound bulldozer with a learner’s permit: 26 carries, 115 yards and a touchdown, plus 15 of 26 passing for 150 yards and a TD to Chas Nimrod (6 catches, 60 yards). Per Auburn, Brown joins Cam Newton as the only Auburn quarterbacks in 40 years to run for 100 yards against Georgia.
Georgia tied it 24-24 with 2:58 left. Then Cody Sigler forced a fumble in the final minute, Sylvester Smith-Reed jumped on it at the Auburn 44, and Alex McPherson drilled a 34-yarder as time expired.Elijah Melendez was everywhere: 9 tackles, a sack and an interception. Auburn outrushed Georgia 192-113 and committed zero turnovers. First-year coach Alex Golesh now owns Auburn’s first road win over a No. 1 team since 1994.
Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Auburn is the most dangerous unranked team in the SEC, and nobody wants to see that quarterback coming downhill in November. Eleven penalties for 85 yards, though? Baby, you won in spite of the flags.
Gumbo Grade: A+. Road win, No. 1 opponent, walk-off kick, zero turnovers. Ça c’est bon, and then some.
GEORGIA BULLDOGS: One Week on the Throne, Then Into the Pot
Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24 | Georgia now 6-1 (4-1 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 5
Cajun roast: Georgia’s stay at No. 1 lasted exactly one week, which is shorter than my cousin’s last diet and only slightly longer than a Mardi Gras parade bead stays on a balcony railing.
It started like a coronation. Georgia went up 14-0 in the first quarter on a 15-yard Dwight Phillips Jr. run and a 24-yard Gunner Stockton touchdown pass to tight end Lawson Luckie. Then the Dawgs stopped cooking and started burning the rice. Auburn scored 24 straight. Georgia rallied with a 42-yard Peyton Woodring field goal and a gutsy 13-play, 94-yard drive that ended on Stockton’s 4-yard TD pass to London Humphreys to tie it with 2:58 left.
Then came the self-inflicted stuff. Georgia turned it over three times, and Kirby Smart was blunt about the penalties: “untimely, uncharacteristic and undisciplined.” A late roughing-the-passer flag helped set up the winning kick. Georgia actually outgained Auburn 440-366, with Stockton throwing for 272 yards and two TDs and Craig Dandridge catching 4 balls for 88 yards. Raylen Wilson had 10 tackles and a sack.
The streaks that died in Athens: nine straight wins over Auburn, and 53 straight wins over unranked teams. Per the AP, No. 1 teams had won 93 straight home games against unranked opponents, going back to 2007. Not anymore.
Cajun Commentary: Ruthless truth: Georgia is still tied for first in the SEC, and most of the league would trade résumés with them in a heartbeat. But you don’t get to lose at home as a 19.5-point favorite (DraftKings closing line) and still call yourself the best team in the country with a straight face.
Gumbo Grade: D+. Outgained the opponent, lost the game. That’s a gumbo with all the right ingredients that somebody left on high heat and walked off to watch the LSU game.
TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS: Third Saturday in October, and Neyland Keeps Its Streak
No. 14 Tennessee 26, No. 6 Alabama 10 | Tennessee now 6-1 (3-1 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 11
Cajun roast: Tennessee kicked four field goals in the first half and still won by 16. That’s like going to the crawfish boil, only eating the corn, and still leaving fuller than everybody else.
This was a beatdown dressed up in a modest final score. DeSean Bishop ran 32 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns, his third straight 100-yard game. George MacIntyre was steady: 21 of 31 for 197 yards, with Mike Matthews catching a career-high 7 passes for 85 yards. Kicker Cooper Ranvier made four first-half field goals (29, 33, 41 and 34 yards).
But the defense was the whole roux. Alabama had 201 total yards, 54 rushing, went 2 of 13 on third down, and turned it over four times. Kayin Lee and Dejuan Lane each picked off a pass. Then Tennessee closed it with a 9-minute, 32-second fourth-quarter drive, the longest of the Josh Heupel era, ending on Bishop’s second 5-yard TD. Tennessee has now won three of its last five against Alabama after losing 15 straight. All three wins came at Neyland.
Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Tennessee is the most complete team in the SEC right now. The quarterback play is “fine,” the running game is a freight train, and that defense is meaner than a cottonmouth in a crawfish trap.
Gumbo Grade: A. The only thing keeping it from an A+ is settling for field goals four times. Finish those drives, and they’d have needed a mercy rule.
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE: The Tide Has Officially Gone Out
No. 14 Tennessee 26, No. 6 Alabama 10 | Alabama now 5-2 (3-2 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 13
Cajun roast: Two weeks ago Bama was scoring like a slot machine at the Coushatta. Saturday the offense had the energy of a swamp-tour boat with a dead battery and a gator chewing on the propeller.
This is the first time Alabama has lost back-to-back regular-season games since 2007. Let that soak in like red beans on a Monday. The Tide managed 201 total yards, went 0 for 7 on third down in the first half and 2 for 13 for the game, lost two fumbles, threw two interceptions, and drew 10 penalties for 68 yards. Keelon Russell’s 19-yard touchdown run and a 42-yard Conor Talty field goal right before halftime were the only points. Then the scoreboard went to camp for the weekend.
The defense deserved better. Caleb Woodson made 11 tackles, Bray Hubbard 10, and Ivan Taylor got an interception. They held Tennessee to field goals four times in the first half. But you can’t ask a defense to hold the line all day when the offense keeps handing the other team the ball like it’s passing out king cake at the office.
Cajun Commentary: Ruthless take: Alabama’s two losses came to two very good teams, and they’re still alive for the playoff. But “alive” and “scary” are two different words, and right now nobody in the SEC is scared of this offense. Texas A&M comes to Tuscaloosa next. That’s the ballgame for the season’s mood.
Gumbo Grade: D. The defense keeps it out of F territory. The offense served a bowl of hot water and called it gumbo.
Tennessee 26, Alabama 10: Bama had 4 turnovers, 201 yards, 2-of-13 on third down. First back-to-back regular-season losses since 2007. Somebody back the pirogue up to Knoxville, Bama’s sinkin’.
FLORIDA GATORS: Rose Up Out of the Swamp and Bit Somebody
Florida 27, No. 7 Texas 24 | Florida now 5-2 (3-2 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 20
Cajun roast: Last week Florida got booed at its own homecoming. This week the Gators went into Austin as a 13.5-point dog (DraftKings closing line) and flashed the upside-down horns on the way off the field. That’s a bigger mood swing than my uncle at an LSU-Alabama watch party.
Quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. made the first start of his college career, in a road game, at a top-10 team, and played like a grown man. He went 22 of 35 for 155 yards and two touchdowns, both to Lacota Dippre, and ran for 41 more. Florida trailed 17-3 in the second quarter, then took over. Dippre’s 7-yard TD made it 17-10 at the half, his 8-yarder capped a 15-play, eight-minute drive in the third, Patrick Durkin kicked a 28-yarder for the lead, and Jadan Baugh (25 carries, 91 yards) punched in an 11-yard touchdown.
Then the defense, ranked last in the SEC coming in, did something wild: it sacked Arch Manning five times (per the AP), held Texas to 272 total yards and 2 of 10 on third down, and Myles Graham’s strip-sack ended Texas’ last possession. Florida won time of possession 38:11 to 21:49 and didn’t turn it over once. It’s the program’s first road win over a top-10 team since 2012.
Cajun Commentary: Hot take: first-year coach Jon Sumrall may have just saved Florida’s season. The Gators get a bye, then go to Georgia on Oct. 31. If they bring this defense, the Dawgs had better check under the porch.
Gumbo Grade: A. Comeback, road upset, first-time starter, no turnovers. Ça c’est bon, cher.
TEXAS LONGHORNS: Most Expensive Pot on the Stove, Nothing Inside It
Florida 27, No. 7 Texas 24 | Texas now 4-2 (1-2 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 19
Cajun roast: Texas has the budget of a small oil company and an offense that’s run out of gas two weeks in a row. Somebody check the dipstick in Austin, because something’s leaking.
Texas led 17-3 in the second quarter, thanks to a 32-yard Raleek Brown touchdown run, a Gianni Spetic field goal and a 63-yard punt-return touchdown by Ryan Niblett. Then the Longhorns went into a crawfish hole and didn’t come out. Texas finished with 13 first downs, 272 total yards, 2 of 10 on third down, and held the ball for under 22 minutes. The one bright spot late was a 62-yard completion to Emmett Mosley V that set up a 9-yard TD pass to Cam Coleman, which only made it a three-point game.
On defense, Colin Simmons had four tackles for loss and a sack and Justin Cryer made 11 tackles, but Florida’s 15-play and 14-play scoring drives in the second half wore them down. Steve Sarkisian summed it up himself: “We didn’t play good football today. Kind of bled out.”
Cajun Commentary: Ruthless truth: Texas was No. 1 in the country two weeks ago, and now it’s 1-2 in the SEC and ranked behind Kentucky. That’s not a slump, that’s a whole sinkhole under the camp. Ole Miss comes to Austin next. If that goes sideways, the panic in Austin will be louder than a brass band in a phone booth.
Gumbo Grade: D. A punt-return touchdown and a fast start were all they had. The rest was a cold roux.
OLE MISS REBELS: Homecoming Dinner, and Missouri Was the Main Course
No. 9 Ole Miss 31, No. 13 Missouri 3 | Ole Miss now 5-1 (3-1 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 7
Cajun roast: Missouri brought over a bunch of former Rebels to make it personal. Ole Miss sent ’em home with a to-go plate and a “thanks for coming, y’all.”
This one was over by halftime. Trinidad Chambliss accounted for four touchdowns: three passes (10 yards to Caleb Odom, 21 to Horatio Fields, 17 to Caleb Cunningham) and a 5-yard run. He went 20 of 36 for 241 yards. The ground game ran over Missouri like a pickup truck over a fire-ant mound: Kewan Lacy had 122 yards on 16 carries, Makhi Frazier added 101 on 15, and Ole Miss piled up 498 total yards, 257 rushing.
The defense might’ve been even better. Missouri came in with a back fresh off two straight 200-yard games, and Ole Miss held the whole Tiger offense to 39 rushing yards on 26 carries. Defensive tackle Will Echoles had a sack, two pass breakups and a quarterback hurry. Landon Barnes snagged an interception. Per the AP, the Rebels are now 25-1 at home since 2023.
Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Ole Miss is the SEC team playing the best football in October, period. They lost one game, at Florida, and that Florida team just won in Austin. Pete Golding’s bunch is cooking with a cast-iron pot now.
Gumbo Grade: A. Dominant on both lines against a top-15 team. That’s a dark roux, slow-cooked, served hot.
MISSOURI TIGERS: First-and-Goal at the 2, Zero Points, Long Drive Home
No. 9 Ole Miss 31, No. 13 Missouri 3 | Missouri now 5-2 (2-2 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 22
Cajun roast: Missouri had first-and-goal at the 2-yard line and came away with nothing. I’ve seen drunk tourists on Bourbon Street find the end zone faster, and they didn’t even have a map.
Here’s the moment the game turned. Trailing 7-3 in the second quarter, Missouri had first-and-goal at the Ole Miss 2. Two runs went backward, a pass fell incomplete, and a 23-yard field goal missed. Ole Miss then scored two touchdowns in a row and led 21-3 at halftime. Missouri didn’t reach the red zone again until the final two minutes. The run game, the heart of this team, produced 39 yards on 26 carries.
There were bright spots. Austin Simmons threw for 339 yards, Donovan Olugbode caught 9 passes for 127 yards, linebacker Nicholas Rodriguez made 13 tackles, and punter Bruno Reus averaged 42.5 yards on seven punts. But an offense that can’t run the ball and can’t score from the 2 is a gumbo pot with a hole in the bottom.
Cajun Commentary: Ruthless truth: Missouri’s only real problem is that it can’t win away from home against good teams. The Tigers are unbeaten at home, and three of their final four games are in Columbia. Eli Drinkwitz said he won’t wallow. Good, because the swamp doesn’t care about your feelings either.
Gumbo Grade: D-. Three points against a top-10 team, and no points from the 2. The pot never got to a boil.
KENTUCKY WILDCATS: The Luckiest Cats in the Bayou, and Now They’re Tied for First
No. 15 Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13 | Kentucky now 6-1 (4-1 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 12
Cajun roast: Kentucky wins games like my Uncle T-Boy wins at bourré: nobody at the table can explain how, everybody’s mad about it, and he’s still holding the pot at the end of the night.
Kentucky gained 230 total yards, trailed 13-7 late in the third quarter, and won by eight. The defense did it. The Wildcats intercepted Oklahoma four times: Ty Bryant had two, and Jordan Castell had two, including a 41-yard pick-six with 1:17 left that sealed it. Bryant’s first interception set up the go-ahead drive, which ended on Kenny Minchey’s second touchdown pass of the night. Minchey went 21 of 28 for 158 yards and two TDs, and Grant Godfrey made 15 tackles.
That’s five straight wins, including back-to-back overtime wins over ranked teams before this one. Kentucky’s only loss was to Alabama, and now the Wildcats are tied with Georgia atop the SEC. Read that sentence again slowly. Yes, Kentucky football.
Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Kentucky is the best “how in the world” team in America, and that’s a compliment. Zero turnovers, opportunistic defense, and nerves of steel. But 230 yards won’t beat Tennessee or Georgia. Enjoy the view from the top, Cats. Bring a lawn chair, because it might be a short visit.
Gumbo Grade: A-. A road SEC win built on four takeaways and zero giveaways. The offense brought store-bought potato salad, but the defense cooked the whole meal.
OKLAHOMA SOONERS: From Beating No. 1 to Handing Out Free Samples
Cajun roast: One week after knocking off No. 1 Texas, Oklahoma threw four interceptions at home. That’s like winning the Mardi Gras king cake baby and choking on it at the parade.
The Sooners outgained Kentucky 346-230, had more first downs (19-14), held the ball longer, and lost by eight because they gave the ball away four times through the air, including the pick-six that ended it. Manny Choice caught 5 passes for 98 yards, Isaiah Sategna III added 8 for 83, and Rocky Beers caught a 20-yard touchdown pass right before halftime. Tate Sandell made field goals from 44 and 26 yards.
The defense was good enough to win. Kentucky had 76 yards and four punts on five straight drives after its opening touchdown, and Jake Kreul had 2.5 sacks and three tackles for loss. But the AP put it plainly: turnovers once again did in the offense. The run game didn’t help, with 76 rushing yards on the night.
Cajun Commentary: Ruthless truth: the Texas win was a party, and this was the hangover. A 3-3 team with a top-notch defense and an offense that keeps tossing the ball to the other side is a coin flip every week. Oklahoma goes to Starkville next as a 3-point favorite (DraftKings, as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22), and yes, I’ll be sweating that one.
Gumbo Grade: D+. The defense earned a B. The four interceptions dragged the whole pot down.
LSU TIGERS: Death Valley Served a Full Plate, and Nobody Else Got a Bite
No. 22 LSU 31, No. 16 Mississippi State 0 | LSU now 5-2 (2-2 SEC) | New AP rank: No. 18
Cajun roast: LSU fans have spent all season complaining louder than a fais do-do band with a blown speaker. Saturday the Tigers finally gave ’em something else to yell about.
Credit where it’s due, even from a maroon man. Sam Leavitt played his cleanest game of the season: 31 of 38 for 289 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions, his first turnover-free game this year, spreading the ball to nine receivers. Jackson Harris caught 6 passes for 85 yards and two TDs (27 and 17 yards), Eugene Wilson III and Malik Elzy caught the others, and Dilin Jones had 84 rushing yards plus 8 catches for 58. LSU led 21-0 at halftime and converted 8 of 13 third downs.
The defense pitched LSU’s first shutout of an SEC opponent since 2007. TJ Dottery made 12 tackles, Jordan Ross had a sack and 2.5 tackles for loss, and Ty Benefield picked off a pass. State got inside the LSU 40 five times and came away with zero, all five ending on failed fourth downs.
Fair is fair, though, so here’s the balance. LSU was outrushed 170-90, and the opponent was missing its starting quarterback and top running back. A week ago this team lost in overtime at Kentucky. Lane Kiffin said it himself: no pity for injuries, and he’s right, but nobody should engrave a trophy off one Saturday.
Cajun Commentary: Hot take: if Leavitt keeps throwing it like this and stops giving the ball away, LSU is the most dangerous two-loss team in the league. If not, they’re the most dangerous two-loss team to their own fans’ blood pressure.
Gumbo Grade: A. A clean, convincing shutout of a ranked rival. Not an A+, because the run game was a mosquito bite, not a gator bite.
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS: My Team, My Pot, My Goose Egg
No. 22 LSU 31, No. 16 Mississippi State 0 | Mississippi State now 4-2 (2-2 SEC) | Dropped out of the AP Top 25
Cajun roast: State got inside the LSU 40 five times and came home with zero points. I’ve seen Mawmaw walk out of a casino with more to show for it, and she plays the penny slots with a coupon.
I promised I’d boil my own team hotter than anybody, so here’s the boil. Mississippi State has now lost two straight, each by more than 30 points, and this one was a shutout. Five drives got inside the LSU 40. All five ended on failed fourth-down tries, including one from the LSU 6-yard line. Not one field goal attempt. State went 0 for 5 on fourth down. Jeff Lebby went for it all afternoon and came home broke. The offense drove inside the 20 just once, went 7 of 15 on third down, and committed 7 penalties for 75 yards.
To be fair, State was missing its starting quarterback, Kamario Taylor, and its top running back, Fluff Bothwell. Second-year quarterback Parker Puckett made his first career start in Death Valley, of all places, and went 16 of 26 for 121 yards, with a 33-yard run as his best play. Kolin Wilson ran for 70-plus yards, and State actually outrushed LSU 170-90 and held the ball for more than 30 minutes. On defense, Jett Jefferson made 8 tackles and Marcus Williams had a sack and two tackles for loss. But the defense also gave up 31 of 38 passing to Leavitt.
Cajun Commentary: Ruthless take from the guy who owns the maroon: the injuries are real, but five empty trips inside the 40 is a coaching problem, not a roster problem. Take the points, Coach. Oklahoma comes to Starkville on Saturday, and this team needs a win like a crawfish needs water.
Gumbo Grade: F. I love y’all, but a shutout is a shutout. Mawmaw made me say it.
LSU 31, Mississippi State 0: Five trips inside the LSU 40. Five failed fourth downs. Zero points. Mawmaw would’ve kicked the field goal from the 6, cher.
ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS: The Drought Is Over. Somebody Light the Grill.
Cajun roast: Arkansas hadn’t won an SEC game since 2024. That’s 14 straight conference losses, which is longer than some marriages in my family.
Finally. The Hogs went to Nashville as 5.5-point underdogs (DraftKings closing line) and snapped a 14-game SEC losing streak.Joker Johnson started it with a 25-yard pick-six, Cam Settles ran for two touchdowns, and quarterback KJ Jackson went 21 of 31 for 251 yards and ran for 58 yards and a TD, including an 8-yarder that gave Arkansas a 21-14 lead early in the third quarter. Settles’ 3-yard score with nine seconds left in the third broke a 21-21 tie for good. Arkansas ran for 187 yards, gained 438 overall, and didn’t turn it over.
When Vanderbilt drove to the Arkansas 29 with 3:46 left, Miguel Mitchell picked it off, and Max Gilbert’s 39-yard field goal iced it. Coach Ryan Silverfield said the win “was for the players,” and after two years of this, they earned every bite.
Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Arkansas just found its identity, and it’s “run the ball and don’t do anything dumb.” Revolutionary, I know. The Hogs get a bye, then host Missouri on Oct. 31. Bring that run game and they might steal another one.
Gumbo Grade: A-. Road SEC win, zero turnovers, a defensive touchdown and a closing interception. The only thing missing is a passing touchdown. Pass the boudin, Fayetteville.
VANDERBILT COMMODORES: Favored at Home and Still Got Peeled
Cajun roast: Vanderbilt was a 5.5-point favorite (DraftKings closing line) at home against a team on a 14-game SEC losing streak, and lost. That’s like losing a staring contest to a crawfish that’s already been boiled.
Vandy now has four straight losses and is 0-4 in the SEC. Jared Curtis threw for 274 yards and a touchdown, a 24-yarder to Junior Sherrill, who had a big night with 8 catches for 99 yards. Sedrick Alexander and Makhilyn Young each ran for a score, and Bryan Longwell made 13 tackles. But two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown and one on the final real drive, sank the ship.
The bigger problem is a defense that was supposed to be the strength of this team. Arkansas ran for 187 yards, one week after Ole Miss ran for 196. Clark Lea said, “We’re actively in pursuit of a better performance.” Coach, the whole fan base is in pursuit of that, plus a cold drink.
Cajun Commentary: Ruthless truth: Vandy’s 3-0 start is a memory now, as faded as last year’s Mardi Gras beads in a pickup truck’s rearview mirror. Next up is a trip to Kentucky. Bring a life jacket.
Gumbo Grade: D-. You were the favorite. At home. Against the team with the longest losing streak in the league. Yikes, cher.
TEXAS A&M AGGIES: Scrimmage Saturday at Kyle Field
Texas A&M 41, The Citadel 0 | Texas A&M now 4-3 (1-3 SEC) | Unranked
Cajun roast: After scoring six points at Missouri, A&M scheduled a get-well casserole from the FCS. It was delicious. It was also The Citadel. Don’t post the recipe yet.
A&M did exactly what it was supposed to do. The Aggies scored touchdowns on all four first-half drives, led 28-0 at halftime, and gained 501 total yards. Jamarion Morrow ran for three first-half touchdowns (all short ones, six yards combined), KJ Edwards led all rushers with 116 yards, and Aaron Gregory caught 6 passes for 94 yards and two TDs. Starter Marcel Reed went 8 of 13 for 130 yards and a TD before the backups took over. The defense allowed 183 yards and pitched its second shutout of the season, the first time A&M has had two in the same year since 1993.
Cajun Commentary: Hot take: this tells us nothing, and that’s fine. A&M is 1-3 in the SEC and heads to Tuscaloosa as a 13.5-point underdog (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23). That’s when we find out if the offense is fixed or just took a nice nap.
Gumbo Grade: B. You can’t grade higher than a B against an FCS team, but they did everything right. A clean plate is a clean plate.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS: On a Bye, Somewhere Fishing
Bye week | South Carolina is 3-3 (1-3 SEC) | Unranked
Cajun roast: South Carolina had the best week in the SEC, because it’s the only team that couldn’t lose. Somebody check on Columbia, they might be at the camp with a cooler and a cane pole.
The Gamecocks rested up after a 38-19 win at Florida on Oct. 10, and that win looks a whole lot better now that Florida just won in Austin. Next comes the big one: No. 11 Tennessee in Columbia on Saturday, with South Carolina a 2.5-point favorite (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23).
Cajun Commentary: Hot take: South Carolina at home against Tennessee is the most underrated game of the week. If the Gamecocks bring the Gainesville version, the Vols’ playoff talk gets a whole lot quieter.
Gumbo Grade: B (for Bye). Undefeated this week. Nobody fumbled, nobody got flagged, nobody got embarrassed. Lucky them.
The Power Pot: SEC Power Rankings After Week 7
Ranked by how good each team looks right now, not by brand name or by what the helmets cost. And yes, the maroon team is where it is on merit.
Tennessee (6-1, 3-1) – Three straight wins, a punishing run game, and a defense that just suffocated Alabama. The only loss was by three to Texas. Hottest pot on the stove.
Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1) – Held a top-15 team to three points and 39 rushing yards. Playing the best football in the league this month.
Georgia (6-1, 4-1) – Still tied for first with wins at Alabama and over Oklahoma. The Auburn loss was a home-cooked disaster, but the résumé is still the best in the room.
Kentucky (6-1, 4-1) – Tied for first, five straight wins, and more lucky charms than a Lafayette pawn shop. The 45-17 home loss to Bama keeps them from the top three.
Florida (5-2, 3-2) – Wins over Ole Miss, Texas and Auburn. A week ago they looked like roadkill. Now they’re the scariest gator in the ditch.
LSU (5-2, 2-2) – Lost by eight at Ole Miss and by one at Kentucky, then shut out a ranked rival. If the turnovers stay gone, look out.
Alabama (5-2, 3-2) – Two straight losses, but they still have wins over Kentucky and South Carolina. The talent’s there. The offense isn’t.
Auburn (4-2, 2-2) – Toppled No. 1 on the road. Losses to Florida and Tennessee are respectable. Nobody wants this quarterback in November.
Missouri (5-2, 2-2) – Unbeaten at home, beaten up on the road. First-and-goal at the 2 for zero points is going to haunt their film room.
Texas (4-2, 1-2) – No. 1 two weeks ago, now has two straight losses and a 1-2 SEC record. The talent says higher. The tape says “get in line.”
Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2) – Yes, they beat Missouri head-to-head. They also lost the last two by a combined 64 points. I put ’em here myself, and it hurts like stepping on a crawfish claw barefoot.
Oklahoma (3-3, 1-2) – A win over Texas and a defense that travels, but an offense that keeps giving the ball away.
South Carolina (3-3, 1-3) – That 38-19 win at Florida keeps aging well. Tennessee at home will tell us the truth.
Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3) – Beat up an FCS team. Next up is Tuscaloosa, which is not an FCS team.
Arkansas (3-4, 1-3) – The streak is dead, the run game is alive, and the Hogs are finally out of the basement.
Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4) – Four straight losses and a home loss as the favorite. They’ve got the basement all to themselves now.
Cajun Commentary: Hot take: Nos. 1 through 4 are so close you couldn’t slide a crawfish tail between them. Tennessee gets the top spot because it’s the one team that looks better every single week. Ask me again after Saturday in Columbia.
Next Week on the Menu (Saturday, Oct. 24; all times CT)
Kickoff times and TV from ESPN’s schedule; lines are DraftKings numbers as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23 unless noted, and will move.
No. 18 LSU at Auburn, 11 a.m. (ABC). Tiger vs. Tiger at Jordan-Hare. LSU is favored by 7 (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23), but Auburn just took down No. 1 in Athens. This is the most dangerous early game on the board, and somebody’s mawmaw is going to need her heart pills.
No. 11 Tennessee at South Carolina, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN). South Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite at home (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23), coming off a bye. The Vols’ playoff dreams walk into Williams-Brice. Our sleeper game of the week.
Texas A&M at No. 13 Alabama, 2:30 p.m. (ABC). Bama is favored by 13.5 (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23) and desperate. A&M is fresh off a scrimmage. If the Tide lose three straight, folks in Tuscaloosa will start burning sage.
Oklahoma at Mississippi State, 2:30 p.m. (SEC Network). OU is a 3-point favorite in Starkville (DraftKings, as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22). Both teams need this like a fish needs a bayou. I’m not picking it. I’ll be on my porch, chewing my fingernails.
No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas, 6:30 p.m. (ABC).Game of the week. Texas is a 3.5-point home favorite, which tells you how much respect Austin still gets with the oddsmakers. Lose this, and the Longhorns’ season goes in the trash with the crawfish shells.
Vanderbilt at No. 12 Kentucky, 6:30 p.m. (SEC Network). Kentucky is favored by 10.5 (DraftKings, as of 8:11 AM CT Oct. 23) and has a share of first place to protect. Vandy needs a win like a Cajun needs hot sauce.
Bye: Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Missouri. (Florida at Georgia and Missouri at Arkansas are both Oct. 31.)
Cajun Commentary: Ole Miss-Texas is the marquee game, but LSU-Auburn and Tennessee-South Carolina are the two most likely to blow up the Power Pot. Set the DVR, cher, and hide the remote from your in-laws.
That’s the gumbo for this week, y’all. Laissez les bons temps rouler, take the points when they’re on the table, and don’t forget the bug spray.
Gridiron Gumbo: SEC football, seasoned in Southwest Louisiana.
Sources
Final scores, box scores, standings, AP rankings (Week 8 poll released Oct. 18), next week’s schedule, and betting lines come from ESPN’s scoreboard, game summaries and standings. Scores were cross-checked with CollegeFootballData and with game recaps from the AP and the schools’ official athletics sites (Auburn, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Texas A&M), plus CBS Sports and SECSports.com, all accessed Oct. 18, 2026.
By T-Rohn. Disclosure: Gridiron Gumbo’s owner leans Mississippi State and owns more cowbells than any grown man should. He was not allowed to grade the Bulldogs without a second opinion and a cold drink.
Six weeks in, the roux is dark, the pot is bubbling, and somebody already burned the rice. With Week 7 on deck, it’s time for the Midseason Gumbo Showdown: every SEC team graded, ranked and seasoned. Records and results below are through Saturday, Oct. 10, per the SEC’s Week 7 release and the Oct. 11 AP poll. Opinions are ours. Facts are not negotiable.
The Standings, Straight From the Pot
Team
SEC
Overall
Georgia
4-0
6-0
Alabama
3-1
5-1
Kentucky
3-1
5-1
Ole Miss
2-1
4-1
Mississippi State
2-1
4-1
Missouri
2-1
5-1
Tennessee
2-1
5-1
Florida
2-2
4-2
Oklahoma
1-1
3-2
Texas
1-1
4-1
Auburn
1-2
3-2
LSU
1-2
4-2
South Carolina
1-3
3-3
Texas A&M
1-3
3-3
Arkansas
0-3
2-4
Vanderbilt
0-3
3-3
Source: SEC Week 7 football release (games through Oct. 10, 2026).
Gumbo Grades: All 16, No Curve
Georgia (6-0) — A: Went to Tuscaloosa, won 20-17, and climbed to No. 1 with 66 first-place votes. Kirby’s pot doesn’t boil over; it just keeps simmering until you’re full.
Alabama (5-1) — A-: Hung 56 in Starkville and 49 on South Carolina, then lost a 20-17 coin flip to Georgia. Voters kept them at No. 6, which is the poll equivalent of ‘you’re still welcome at the cookout.’
Kentucky (5-1) — A: Two 35-34 overtime wins, a road win at Texas A&M, a +7 turnover margin and the highest ranking (No. 15) since 2022. Will Stein goes for it on fourth down like the gas bill is somebody else’s problem.
Missouri (5-1) — B+: Allowed 23 total points to Florida and Texas A&M combined. That defense is tighter than a Sunday-school collar.
Tennessee (5-1) — B+: Only loss is 20-17 to Texas. The quarterback room is a weekly game of ‘guess who,’ and Heupel’s still winning.
Mississippi State (4-1) — B+: Bias alert, cher. Road wins at Minnesota and South Carolina, beat then-No. 19 Missouri 31-24, then got cooked 56-23 by Alabama at home. My cowbells are still muted out of shame.
Ole Miss (4-1) — B: Beat LSU 32-24 and dropped 52 on Vandy, but gave up 52 in Gainesville and ranks last in the SEC in run defense. A pass rush with a screen door behind it.
Texas (4-1) — B: Beat Ohio State, then lost 27-24 to Oklahoma in Dallas. Preseason hype was a five-alarm pot; it’s currently a solid three.
Oklahoma (3-2) — B-: Losses at Michigan and Georgia, then knocked off No. 1 Texas. Venables’ bunch is the cousin who’s broke all year but buys the first round at the wedding.
Florida (4-2) — C+: Started 4-0 with a 52-28 beatdown of then-No. 4 Ole Miss, then lost 45-17 at Missouri and 38-19 at home to South Carolina. Sumrall’s gumbo started hot and somebody turned off the burner.
LSU (4-2) — C: 0-2 on the road, a 35-34 OT loss at Kentucky, and a 12-spot plunge to No. 22. Kiffin’s trick plays are fun until the red zone turns into a field-goal buffet.
Auburn (3-2) — C: Lost 44-39 to Florida and 24-14 at Tennessee, beat Vandy 21-15. Golesh’s offense keeps forgetting the first quarter exists.
South Carolina (3-3) — C-: Blew a 17-point lead to Kentucky and a 16-point lead to Mississippi State, then finally closed one out, 38-19 in Gainesville. Shane Beamer has found the brakes; now try using them early.
Texas A&M (3-3) — D+: Scored six points in each of its last two road games (35-6 at LSU, 27-6 at Missouri). Kyle Field deserves more than a pair of field goals per trip.
Vanderbilt (3-3) — D+: 3-0 in non-conference, 0-3 in the SEC, and on a three-game skid. Somebody check the pantry, the magic seasoning ran out.
Arkansas (2-4) — D: 0-3 in the league, scoring 7 at A&M and 17 against Tennessee. The Hogs’ offense has been slow-cooked into mush.
The Midseason Power Pot
Georgia — The only unbeaten SEC team, and they got there through Bryant-Denny.
Alabama — One three-point loss to the No. 1 team. Still the deepest roster in the pot.
Kentucky — Earned it. Five wins, two OT escapes, one loss to Alabama.
Missouri — The best defense in the league right now, full stop.
Tennessee — 5-1 with a QB question. Third Saturday in October decides a lot.
Texas — The Ohio State win still counts. The OU loss still stings.
Ole Miss — Explosive passing game, leaky run defense. Mizzou is coming to test it.
Mississippi State — Ranked No. 16 and earned it, but the Alabama tape and a QB health question keep them here. (Yes, I wanted them higher. No, I didn’t.)
Oklahoma — Beat Texas, but zero true road wins.
Florida — Two straight losses, still has Baugh.
LSU — Talent says higher. Results say this.
Auburn — Competitive, not dangerous yet.
South Carolina — Finally closed a game. Bye week came at the right time.
Texas A&M — Must find an offense on the road.
Vanderbilt — Saturday against Arkansas is a must-win.
Arkansas — See above, from the other sideline.
Who’s For Real, Who’s a Fraud
For real:
Kentucky. Two coin-flip OT wins can be luck. A +7 turnover margin and a road win at A&M says it’s a habit.
Missouri’s defense. Held Florida’s Jadan Baugh, the SEC’s rushing-TD leader, to 13 yards. That’s not a fluke, that’s a lockdown.
Georgia. Thin at running back with injuries and still No. 1. That’s what depth looks like.
Fraud watch (prove us wrong, please):
Ole Miss’s run defense. Roughly 176 rush yards allowed per game, last in the SEC. Missouri’s Jamal Roberts is coming off back-to-back 200-yard games. Gulp.
Florida’s 4-0 start. The Ole Miss win was real; the last two weeks were too.
LSU’s ranking. No. 22 with zero road wins. Death Valley can’t play every game.
Midseason Awards
MVP: Missouri RB Jamal Roberts. Back-to-back 200-yard rushing games for a 5-1 team. Honorable mention, with full bias disclosure: Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor (1,450 pass yards, 17 TD, 4 INT) — wishing him a quick recovery from the foot injury he suffered against Alabama.
Biggest surprise: Kentucky. First-year coach Will Stein has the Wildcats 5-1 and at their highest AP ranking since 2022.
Biggest letdown: Texas A&M. 3-3, 1-3 in the SEC, 12 total points in two road league games.
Best game: Georgia 20, Alabama 17. A No. 1-ranking game in Tuscaloosa decided by three. Runner-up: Kentucky 35, LSU 34 (OT), in which Lexington’s fourth-down nerve outlasted Kiffin’s gadget bag.
Second-Half Bold Predictions
These are predictions, not facts. Bookmark this and laugh at us in December.
Georgia reaches the SEC title game unbeaten in league play — and it’s closer than anyone in Athens wants to admit.
Kentucky gets to eight regular-season wins. Will Stein keeps going for it on fourth down, and we keep sweating.
Missouri wins in Oxford this Saturday, and the Death Row defense becomes the SEC’s most-quoted nickname by November.
Texas A&M finishes .500 or better, because a coaching staff that talented can’t keep scoring six on the road.
At least one of Vanderbilt or Arkansas wins two SEC games the rest of the way. (It starts Saturday night in Nashville.)
Mississippi State is bowl eligible by Halloween (Oklahoma visits Starkville Oct. 24, then it’s a trip to Texas) — and yes, I’ll be ringing every one of those cowbells. Mostly the dented ones.
Gumbo’s Picks Record: The Honest Ledger
We promised to keep the receipts public. Our pick tracker currently holds our eight Week 7 official picks (Texas, LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Missouri as the upset special, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma). None have been graded yet, so the official Gridiron Gumbo record is 0-0 straight up, 0-0 against the spread, 0-0 on totals. Not hiding anything, cher: the tracker starts this week, and you’ll see every win and every faceplant right here.
Note, from one Mississippi State man to the rest of you: we picked LSU over the Bulldogs this week. Neutrality hurts. The cowbells have been informed.
Sources: SEC Week 7 football release, AP Top 25 (Oct. 11, 2026), Sports-Reference, team and press reports. Injury statuses can change; check Thursday’s SEC availability report.
By T-Rohn. Disclosure: Gridiron Gumbo’s owner leans Mississippi State, which means he has no dog in this fight and a deep personal understanding of what a rough October feels like.
Result update (Oct. 22, 2026), CONFIRMED: Arkansas won 31-21 at Vanderbilt on Oct. 17, snapping the Razorbacks’ 14-game SEC losing streak, per ESPN and the AP recap. Our pick, Vanderbilt 28-20, was a miss, and it is logged as a miss in our pick tracker.
Vanderbilt’s week started the way a crawfish boil ends when somebody forgets the lid: hot, messy and short on the good stuff. The Commodores are coming off a 52-17 home loss to Ole Miss, and on Tuesday coach Clark Lea confirmed three injuries that will keep key depth pieces out when Arkansas comes to FirstBank Stadium on Saturday.
Backup quarterback Blaze Berlowitz broke his collarbone late in the Ole Miss game and had surgery Monday. Lea says he’ll be out about a month.
Berlowitz came in after the game was decided and led a touchdown drive. Along the way he took a hit on a sideline run near the Rebels’ 12 that drew an unnecessary roughness flag. Then he stayed in, threw one more pass and handed off twice before he left. “Just the toughness to have a broken collar bone and finish taking three snaps including a pass is pretty remarkable,” Lea said. We make jokes for a living around here, and there’s nothing funny about that. The man finished the drive. Respect.
To be clear, Berlowitz was not Saturday’s starter. Five-star freshman Jared Curtis took the job during the Delaware game. Berlowitz started the first two games, then got the start at Georgia while Curtis was hurt, going 12-for-23 for 190 yards with a touchdown and an interception. On the season he’s 28-for-53 for 386 yards and a score, plus 110 rushing yards. He even volunteered to play receiver after losing the QB job. That’s the kind of teammate who brings the ice chest and the boudin to the tailgate.
Who’s Holding the Clipboard Now?
With Berlowitz out, the backup job behind Curtis goes to junior Whit Muschamp or sophomore Jack Elliott. Muschamp appeared to have the edge coming out of fall camp, and his only passing work this season was two attempts against Georgia. Yes, he’s that Muschamp family. We’ll give Vandy fans a minute to decide whether that last name makes them feel better or reach for the Pepto.
The Big Fellas Up Front
Gunner Givens, an offensive lineman, needs season-ending hip surgery. Lea called it about a six-month recovery. The good news is that Givens’ waiver for an extra season of eligibility has already been approved, so he gets another year in black and gold.
Offensive lineman Mitchell Smith, who also missed the Ole Miss game, will have a procedure to clean up his knee. Lea expects him back “hopefully after the bye week,” so he’ll miss a couple of games.
Losing two linemen in one week is how a decent gumbo turns into soup. It’s still edible, but your grandmother is going to say something.
REPORTED: Vanderbilt was a 6.5-point favorite with a 49.5 total at BetMGM, as of Oct. 16, 2026 (BetMGM). Lines are for entertainment; see our picks disclaimer. Both teams are winless in SEC play, so somebody gets out of the basement Saturday night and somebody gets to keep the folding chair down there.
Arkansas comes in having lost 34-7 at Texas A&M and 24-17 to Tennessee, and the Hogs’ offense has been about as productive as a nutria on a treadmill. Vandy, meanwhile, won its three nonconference games and then dropped three straight to Auburn, Georgia and Ole Miss. Arkansas leads the series 7-3, but Vanderbilt won the last meeting 45-31 in 2018. The Commodores have never beaten the Razorbacks at home, and they last hosted them in 2011, back when your phone still had a keyboard.
Players to watch for Vandy: WR Junior Sherrill (529 receiving yards, fourth in the SEC, with a catch in 43 straight games, the longest active streak in FBS), RB Sedrick Alexander (25 career rushing TDs, third in school history) and LB CJ Heard (team-high 43 tackles and two forced fumbles).
Our official Week 7 pick: Vanderbilt 28, Arkansas 20. The Commodores win, and by our numbers they thinly cover the six. It’ll be ugly, so turn on the lights, stir the pot and keep the antacids handy.
Correction (Oct. 22, 2026): An earlier version described the line as about a 6-point favorite at most books with a total around 50, without naming a sportsbook. It now cites BetMGM. We also added the final result.
Gridiron Gumbo original projections — Oct. 13, 2026, after the Oct. 10 games (ESPN calls it Week 6). Disclosure: your humble cook bleeds maroon and rings a cowbell (Mississippi State). We graded State like everybody else. Mawmaw checked.
How we cooked it
These are our picks, not a copy of anybody’s. Ingredients: current overall/SEC records (ESPN standings), ESPN FPI ratings and projected final records/playoff odds, the AP poll, and the actual 2026-27 SEC bowl rules. Note: the CFP committee’s first rankings don’t drop until November, so the AP poll + FPI stand in for now.
CFP: 12 teams. Power 4 champs get auto bids, plus the top Group of 6 team; seven at-larges; top four ranked teams get byes.
SEC ladder: Citrus Bowl takes the best SEC team left after the CFP. Then the “pool of six” (ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Las Vegas, Liberty) is slotted by the SEC with schools and bowls, avoiding repeat trips. Birmingham and Gasparilla pick after that. 2026 is the SEC’s Las Vegas year in the rotation with Duke’s Mayo. Bowl tie-ins carried over from 2025 for this season.
The Pot, Team by Team
Georgia (6-0, 4-0 SEC; AP No. 1)
Projection: 12-0 / 11-1, SEC champion, top-4 CFP seed (bye). FPI has them No. 2 nationally, projecting 11.8 wins and a 95.8% playoff chance. They already won 20-17 in Tuscaloosa. Take: Kirby’s roux is so dark and steady it should come with a warning label. Every other fanbase is just stirring and praying, cher.
Alabama (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 6)
Projection: 10-2, CFP at-large, first-round home game. FPI No. 5, 81.8% playoff odds. Losing at home to Georgia doesn’t knock you out of a 12-team field. Take: Tide fans are treating one loss like Mawmaw found store-bought boudin in her fridge. Relax, y’all are still eating in December.
Texas (4-1, 1-1; AP No. 7)
Projection: 10-2, CFP at-large. FPI No. 6, 74.6% playoff odds. The Red River loss stings, but the early win over Ohio State keeps the résumé strong. Take: Austin lost to Oklahoma and acted like somebody put beans in their gumbo. It’s a Texas thing. We’ll allow it.
Tennessee (5-1, 2-1; AP No. 14)
Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large (last one in, ~No. 11-12 seed). The SEC’s best playoff odds outside the big three (FPI: 24.4%, 8.4 projected wins). This is our boldest call. They still have to play Alabama and LSU. Take: Rocky Top’s offense looks like a crawfish boil with no seasoning. Still gets eaten, but nobody’s bragging about it.
Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1; AP No. 9)
Projection: 8-4, Citrus Bowl. Highest AP rank of the non-CFP group, but FPI projects only 7.8 wins because of the back half: Missouri, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma and the Egg Bowl. Take: Oxford’s tailgate is fancier than a Garden District wedding, but that schedule is a pot of boiling water and the Rebels are the crawfish.
Kentucky (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 15)
Projection: 8-4, ReliaQuest Bowl. They have two straight 35-34 overtime wins, including over LSU. FPI still rates them No. 30 and projects 7.9 wins, so we expect some regression. Next up: at Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, Florida, at Missouri, Louisville. Take: Lexington’s living on overtime like a man living on gas-station boudin. Delicious, reckless, and the bill comes due eventually.
LSU (4-2, 1-2; AP No. 22)
Projection: 8-4, Gator Bowl. FPI’s No. 8 team in the country is the most talented team in this tier, with 7.7 projected wins and 15.4% playoff odds. Two SEC losses already pretty much end any CFP hopes. Take: Lane Kiffin’s Year 1 in Baton Rouge is a jambalaya with every expensive ingredient and nobody minding the burner. Death Valley’s already sharpening its call-in-show voice, cher.
Missouri (5-1, 2-1; AP No. 13)
Projection: 8-4, Music City Bowl. FPI projects 7.9 wins, and Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss and Oklahoma are still ahead. Nashville is an easy drive for the fan base. Take: Mizzou fans still call the SEC “the new neighbors.” Fifteen seasons in, cher. Bring a covered dish already.
Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1; AP No. 16) (the cook’s team, graded fair)
Projection: 7-5, Las Vegas Bowl. FPI projects 7.6 wins and rates them No. 27, behind several SEC teams with worse records. We went with the computer and not our hearts. The 56-23 home loss to Alabama is the stain. The trip to LSU on Oct. 17 is the swing game for Jeff Lebby. Take: Starkville’s in Vegas with cowbells. The casinos will take every dollar but they’ll never get the ringing out of their ears. (Yes, Mawmaw is biased. She also ranked them seventh, so hush.)
Oklahoma (3-2, 1-1)
Projection: 7-5, Texas Bowl. The Red River win is a top-shelf ingredient, but FPI projects 7.0 wins and the back half is rough. A trip to Houston puts the Sooners in a bowl in Texas, which they’ll pretend not to enjoy. Take: Sooner Nation’s beat Texas and is already planning the parade. Mawmaw says don’t salt the pot before the water boils.
Florida (4-2, 2-2)
Projection: 7-5, Liberty Bowl. They started 4-0 (including 52-28 over Ole Miss), then lost 45-17 at Missouri and 38-19 at home to South Carolina. FPI still projects 6.6 wins with an 84.6% chance at bowl eligibility. Take: The Swamp went from top-10 to “check on Gator fans” faster than a pot of rice burns when you walk off. Jon Sumrall’s Year 1 roux needs a whole lotta stirring.
Auburn (3-2, 1-2)
Projection: 6-6, Birmingham Bowl. FPI: 6.1 projected wins, 69.4% to reach six. That’s a coin-flip-plus, and Birmingham is right up the road. Take: The Plains fanbase would roll Toomer’s for a bowl-eligibility clinch at this point. Low bar, cher, but it’s a bar.
South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)
Projection: 6-6, Gasparilla Bowl. The 38-19 win in Gainesville bought Shane Beamer some breathing room. FPI gives them a 57.3% chance at six wins. Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Georgia and Clemson are still on the schedule. Take: Columbia’s hot seat cooled down quicker than leftover gumbo in Mawmaw’s deep freeze. Don’t get comfortable. It thaws.
Texas A&M (3-3, 1-3)
Projection: 6-6, Bowl TBD (SEC backup slot). They were ranked No. 9 as recently as mid-September, but FPI now projects 5.7 wins (56.8% for six). Once the SEC tie-ins are filled, a sixth win only gets them a leftover spot. Take: College Station spent like a Houston oil man and is cooking like a dorm microwave. Mike Elko’s kitchen needs a health inspection.
Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3)
Projection: 4-8, no bowl. FPI projects 4.4 wins with a 12.6% chance at bowl eligibility. Take: The smartest fanbase in the league has done the math and moved on to basketball. Mawmaw respects a family that knows when the pot’s empty.
Arkansas (2-4, 0-3)
Projection: 3-9, no bowl. FPI projects 3.3 wins with a 1.9% chance at bowl eligibility. Take: Hog fans are calling the Hogs like they’re calling the coach’s buyout number. Only thing roasting in Fayetteville this fall is the boudin at the tailgate.
The Tally
4 CFP teams (Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee) plus 9 tie-in bowls plus Texas A&M in a TBD backup slot = 14 bowl-eligible. Vandy and Arkansas stay home.
Where we differ from the national guys: most outlets have Ole Miss (and some Kentucky) as the SEC’s fourth playoff team. We picked Tennessee because of FPI’s projected record and playoff odds. Argue with us in the comments, cher.
Gridiron Gumbo | SEC Week 7 Preview: games of Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 | Posted Monday, Oct. 12, 2026
By T-Rohn. All times Central. Lines updated Friday night, Oct. 16 and subject to move faster than a cousin at a free buffet.
Picks can change with news. Everything below is the Gumbo’s official Week 7 set, refreshed Thursday night, Oct. 15 (and Friday night, Oct. 16, for Mississippi State at LSU after the Kamario Taylor downgrade) with new ratings, current lines and the SEC availability reports, and picks lock at kickoff, but you can still enter right up until game time. If a starter’s status changes, so might the pick.
Eight games, fifteen SEC teams, and South Carolina sitting this one out on a bye, probably icing everything that hurts. Georgia is the last team clean in league play, Alabama is mad, Texas wants respect, and my Bulldogs walk into Death Valley before most of Baton Rouge has finished breakfast. Get your pot on, cher.
Cajun Commentary: Disclosure stands from last week. I bleed maroon. That’s exactly why State gets boiled hottest in this kitchen. Every pick below is straight from the numbers and the tape, not the cowbell.
Lock of the Week: Texas -11.5 vs. Florida
Texas comes home mad after Red River with the #2 defense in our ratings, while Florida’s defense just gave up 45 and 38 and QB Aaron Philo (shoulder), WR Vernell Brown III and WR Bailey Stockton are all questionable. Texas 34, Florida 17.
Upset Special: Missouri over Ole Miss (safer play is Missouri +5.5)
Ole Miss owns the SEC’s last-ranked run defense (about 176 rushing yards a game), Mizzou comes in with Jamal Roberts off back-to-back 200-yard games and a top-10 defense in our ratings, and the Rebels just lost S Edwin Joseph. It’s the Gumbo’s only straight-up pick of an underdog this week, and it is genuine but thin, so the safer play is Missouri +5.5. Missouri 29, Ole Miss 27.
The Games
Florida (4-2, 2-2) at Texas (4-1, 1-1)
11 a.m. CT, ABC | Texas -11.5, O/U 51.5 (DraftKings and other books, Oct 15)
Florida got booed at its own homecoming last week, and now it gets to walk into Austin, where they boo you in a nicer accent. Texas has the #2 defense in our ratings, and a Florida defense that just gave up 45 and 38 is traveling with a banged-up QB, WR1 and RB2. Throw in a Longhorn crowd still mad about Red River and Texas pulls away. One caveat, cher: Texas is 1-4 against the spread and the offense has been uneven, so respect the number.
Roster check: No injuries reported for either team (TeamRankings, Oct 12). Florida WR Vernell Brown III (knee) likely questionable; he has missed two games (Palm Beach Post/Gainesville Sun). QBs: Aaron Philo (FLA) and Arch Manning (TEX). No pick change. Wednesday night update (Oct 14): Florida QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) is questionable on the first SEC availability report and has been limited; Tramell Jones Jr. has taken first-team reps and would make his first career start if Philo can’t go (Gators Online/On3, ESPN, Oct 14). Vernell Brown III practiced Wednesday, and Texas DT Justus Terry practiced and is expected back (Burnt Orange Nation, Oct 14). The total dropped from 52.5 to 51.5, and the line has since climbed to Texas -11.5 (-11 at some books; DraftKings, scoresandodds.com, Oct 15). Thursday update (Oct 15): Philo is still questionable, WR Bailey Stockton is questionable and RB Duke Clark is out; if Philo can’t go, Tramell Jones Jr. makes his first start (On3). Texas WR Kaliq Lockett is doubtful and OL Jaydon Chatman is out. Official pick: Texas 34, Florida 17, with a lean on Texas -11.5 and no lean on the total (51 projected vs 51.5). Friday night update (Oct 16): Philo is still questionable on the Friday report, and On3’s Pete Nakos reports Florida is expected to start Tramell Jones Jr., with a final call Saturday morning (On3, CBS Sports, Oct 16). Vernell Brown III and Bailey Stockton remain questionable and Duke Clark is out; Texas DT Justus Terry and OL Jordan Coleman are probable (On3). DraftKings still has Texas -11.5, total 51.5. No pick change: the Lock of the Week stays Texas -11.5.
Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1) at LSU (4-2, 1-2)
11 a.m. CT, ESPN | LSU -15.5, O/U 56.5 (DraftKings Friday night via LineTerminal, Oct 16; opened -10.5)
Full disclosure, cher: this is my team, so I held the thermometer extra steady. LSU is the better, deeper team at home (our ratings have its defense around #10 and State’s around #65 after giving up 56 to Alabama), and Death Valley at 11 in the morning is still Death Valley, just with more Bloody Marys. But State’s offense is road-tested (38 at Minnesota, 41 at South Carolina) and LSU’s defense gave up 34 to Kentucky. Then Friday night’s SEC report downgraded QB Kamario Taylor (foot) and RB Fluff Bothwell to doubtful, and walk-on Billy Puckett is the expected starter, so State is likely without the SEC’s leading passer and its leading rusher. LSU wins by a little more than two scores, and it hurts me to type it.
Pick: LSU | ATS: No lean now (pass; Taylor doubtful; Thursday’s MSU +14.5 is voided: Taylor was ruled out on the Saturday SEC report) | O/U: Under now (Thursday’s Over is voided: Taylor is out) | Projected Score: LSU 33, Mississippi State 17 (updated Friday night projection; Thursday’s was LSU 36, Mississippi State 22) | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶🌶🌶 (4/5)
Roster check: MSU QB Kamario Taylor (right foot/leg, left the Oct 3 Alabama loss in a boot) is unknown; first SEC availability report is Wednesday (Clarion Ledger, Daily Journal, Oct 12). At his Monday presser Jeff Lebby deferred all injury questions to Wednesday’s report and said the focus is getting Taylor ready (Starkville Daily News, 247Sports, Oct 12). Billy Puckett is the backup. Line steady at LSU -12.5, opened -10.5 (The Sharp Edition). Tuesday night update: Taylor is still limited in practice and his status is in flux, with a decision expected later in the week (ESPN/Pete Thamel, CBS Sports, Oct 13). The line moved again, from LSU -12.5 to -14 (consensus via VegasInsider; DraftKings -14 via ESPN odds feed). Wednesday night update (Oct 14): the first SEC availability report is out, and Kamario Taylor (foot) is listed QUESTIONABLE, not out; leading rusher Fluff Bothwell is questionable too (The Advocate/NOLA.com, TigerRag, Oct 14). LSU lists only LB Tylen Singleton as questionable beyond its long-term outs (LB Whit Weeks, TE Trey’Dez Green, S Dashawn Spears) (The Advocate). The line ticked from LSU -14 to -14.5 (opened -10.5). Thursday update (Oct 15): Taylor (turf toe/foot) and Bothwell are STILL QUESTIONABLE, LB Jalen Smith is out and Zakari Tillman is doubtful; the backups are Billy Puckett and AJ Swann, and Jeff Lebby hinted Taylor can play through it (On3). DraftKings has LSU -14.5 with a total of 56.5 (some books -15.5/-16). This game could shift after the Saturday ~9:30 AM CT SEC availability report. Official pick: LSU 36, Mississippi State 22; a thin Mississippi State +14.5 lean and a slight Over only if Taylor is confirmed to play, and no recommended play otherwise. Friday night update (Oct 16): the SEC’s third availability report downgraded Taylor (foot/turf toe) from questionable to DOUBTFUL, and Bothwell is doubtful too (247Sports, Louisiana Sports, Oct 16); ESPN’s Pete Thamel reports Taylor is not expected to play (via Sports Illustrated, Oct 16). Walk-on Billy Puckett (8-of-12 passing in two games) is the expected starter, with AJ Swann also on the depth chart (Louisiana Sports). LSU still lists LB Whit Weeks, LB Charles Ross II, WR Phillip Wright III, S Dashawn Spears and TE Trey’Dez Green out and LB Tylen Singleton doubtful (247Sports). The line climbed to LSU -15.5 at DraftKings, total 56.5 (LineTerminal). As promised Thursday, the Taylor-only plays are off: no lean on the spread (33-17 projected, right around the number) and the total flips to the Under (50 projected after the 2-point wind cut vs 56.5). Final word comes with the ~9:30 AM CT game-day report. Updated Friday night projection: LSU 33, Mississippi State 17. The straight-up pick stays LSU. The Thursday plays (Mississippi State +14.5 and the Over 56.5) counted only if Taylor played, so they are voided, since Taylor and Bothwell were officially ruled out on the Saturday SEC availability report: no action, not graded as losses. The Under is the updated Friday night total lean.
The Citadel (FCS) at Texas A&M (3-3, 1-3)
Noon CT, SEC Network+ | Texas A&M -45.5, O/U 56.5 (DraftKings via CFBD, Oct 15)
A&M scored six points against Missouri last week, so Mike Elko ordered a get-well casserole from the FCS. The Citadel are fine military men, but at 2-4 and allowing about 33 a game this is like bringing a pirogue to a battleship fight. The catch is an Aggie offense that has been ugly (six points twice in the last three games), so A&M wins big but 45.5 is a whole lotta crawfish to lay, and the depth chart will rotate.
Pick: Texas A&M | ATS: The Citadel +45.5 | O/U: Under | Projected Score: Texas A&M 44, The Citadel 9 | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶🌶🌶 (4/5)
Roster check: A&M OL Blake Ivy is out for the season; WR Terry Bussey, RB Tiger Riden Jr., WR Madden Williams and DL Chace Sims are also out for the year (SI/All Aggies, Oct 11). Tuesday update: books finally posted a line, Texas A&M -45.5 with a 56.5 total (cfb.app, Bleacher Report, Oct 13). Wednesday night update (Oct 14): non-conference game, so no SEC availability report is required. Thursday update (Oct 15): line unchanged at Texas A&M -45.5, O/U 56.5 (DraftKings via CFBD); QB Marcel Reed is expected to play, and the kickoff time should be confirmed day-of (noon CT on the report, 11 a.m. CT on SECN+ per the SEC release). Official pick: Texas A&M 44, The Citadel 9; lean The Citadel +45.5 and the Under 56.5 (53 projected after a 2-point wind cut).
Alabama (5-1, 3-1) at Tennessee (5-1, 2-1)
2:30 p.m. CT, ABC | Alabama -7.5, O/U 50.5 (consensus, Oct 16; total opened 56.5)
The Third Saturday in October, with cigars on the line. Alabama just got curse-busted at home by Georgia and comes in mad as a nutria in a trap, with a defense that is top three nationally in takeaways. Tennessee has named George MacIntyre its starter for his second career start, and he has to avoid turnovers. Neyland keeps the Vols live, but the Tide is better on both lines and wins by about a touchdown.
Roster check: Heupel again declined to name a starter Monday, saying the team will find out through the week (ESPN, Tennessean, Oct 12): Faizon Brandon (right shoulder, questionable) or George MacIntyre, who had 3 turnovers vs Arkansas (Knoxville News Sentinel, ESPN, Oct 12). Line moved from Bama -7 to -8.5; total from 56.5 to 53.5 (Gridiron & Wine, Legion Report). Tuesday update: Brandon practiced Tuesday and is still working through the shoulder injury, and Heupel still hasn’t named a starter (On3/Pete Nakos, Rocky Top Insider, Oct 13). The total dropped again, from 53.5 to 51.5 (DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, FanDuel Research). Wednesday night update (Oct 14): first SEC availability report lists Alabama WR Ryan Coleman-Williams and DL Terrance Green OUT, C Racin Delgatty questionable; Tennessee QB Faizon Brandon is QUESTIONABLE (Rocky Top Insider, Oct 14). DraftKings dropped Bama from -8.5 to -7.5 after the report. Thursday update (Oct 15): Tennessee named George MacIntyre the starter over Faizon Brandon (ESPN, CBS, Oct 15); he went 18-of-29 for 247 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT in his first start. Alabama WR Ryan Coleman-Williams and DT Terrance Green are out and C Racin Delgatty is questionable. Totals range from 50.5 to 53.5. Official pick: Alabama 27, Tennessee 19; thin lean on Alabama -7.5 and the Under (46 projected after a 2-point wind cut). Friday night update (Oct 16): Alabama ruled out starting C Racin Delgatty (knee), with Mal Waldrep expected at center, and TE Josh Ford is questionable (On3, Oct 16). Tennessee QB Faizon Brandon is off the report and available, but George MacIntyre is expected to make his second straight start (247Sports, Oct 16). Consensus is still Alabama -7.5, and the total dipped to 50.5 (PlaceBets.ai, LineSteam, Oct 16). No pick change: Alabama 27, Tennessee 19, thin lean Alabama -7.5 and the Under 50.5 (46 projected).
Auburn (3-2, 1-2) at Georgia (6-0, 4-0)
2:30 p.m. CT, ESPN | Georgia -19.5, O/U 49.5 (DraftKings and Bovada; some books -20.5 to -21, Oct 15)
Georgia is the only SEC team still clean in conference play, and they just went to Tuscaloosa and broke a curse like it owed them money. The Dawgs bring the #3 defense in our ratings against an Auburn offense ranked around 62nd that is missing LB Xavier Atkins. Auburn has been competitive and Georgia just survived Alabama 20-17, so I stop short of a 40-point blowout: Georgia by about three touchdowns.
Roster check: Georgia unofficial report: OLB Amaris Williams, OL Marcus Harrison, WR Thomas Blackshear out; RBs Nate Frazier (ribs) and Chauncey Bowens questionable; Smart says tailback is thin (AJC, Oct 12). Auburn is off a bye. Monday night update: line moved again, from Georgia -19.5 to -20.5 (opened -16.5; DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, sportsanalysis.info and The Sharp Edition). Wednesday night update (Oct 14): Georgia RB Chauncey Bowens will miss Auburn and his timetable is unclear, while Nate Frazier is eyeing a return (Red & Black, On3/Pete Nakos, Oct 14). Auburn LB Xavier Atkins is not with the team (Saturday Down South, Oct 14). Thursday update (Oct 15): DraftKings has Georgia -19.5 (other books -20.5 to -21; opened -16.5), total 49.5. Georgia RB Chauncey Bowens, WR Blackshear, WR Canion, LB Amaris Williams and S Tyriq Green are out; RB Nate Frazier is not on the report and is expected back, and QB Gunner Stockton is available. Auburn is without LB Xavier Atkins, TE Hunter Herring and OL Tai Buster. Official pick: Georgia 34, Auburn 13; lean Auburn +19.5 or better and the Under 49.5 (47 projected).
Missouri (5-1, 2-1) at Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1)
2:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network | Ole Miss -5.5, O/U 58.5 (DraftKings and consensus, Oct 15)
Ole Miss hung 52 on Vanderbilt, but it also gives up rushing yards like a crawfish boil gives up corn: the Rebels are last in the SEC against the run, at roughly 176 a game. Missouri brings Jamal Roberts, off back-to-back 200-yard games, and a top-10 defense in our ratings, against an Ole Miss secondary that just lost S Edwin Joseph. The ratings see a coin flip at a neutral site, so this is the Gumbo’s Upset Special: Tigers by two. It is genuine but thin as a straight-up pick, and Missouri’s long questionable list and the Oxford atmosphere are real risks, so the safer play is Missouri +5.5.
Pick: Missouri (Upset Special) | ATS: Missouri +5.5 | O/U: Under | Projected Score: Missouri 29, Ole Miss 27 | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶 (2/5)
Roster check: Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy returned vs Vandy; S Edwin Joseph (ankle sprain) is questionable; OL Tommy Kinsler IV is banged up (HottyToddy, Oct 12). Mizzou: no reported injuries (TeamRankings). Spread moved from -6.5 to -6, total from 58.5 to 59.5. Wednesday night update (Oct 14): first SEC availability report rules Ole Miss S Edwin Joseph OUT (ankle surgery; On3, Oct 14). Mizzou QB Austin Simmons is listed probable, WR Cayden Lee questionable, and RB Ahmad Hardy is still out (Mizzou Today/On3, Oct 14). The line moved from Ole Miss -6 to -5.5 (opened -7.5 at some books) and the total from 59.5 to 58.5. Thursday update (Oct 15): Ole Miss has 8 players out in total; Missouri’s midweek list has 24 questionable, including WR Cayden Lee, EDGE Darris Smith, LT Cayden Green and TE Norfleet, while RB Ahmad Hardy is out (On3). Official pick: Missouri 29, Ole Miss 27 (Upset Special); lean Missouri +5.5, the safer play, and the Under 58.5 (56 projected after a 2-point wind cut). Friday night update (Oct 16): Missouri trended up: QB Austin Simmons is off the report, LB Jeremiah Beasley and TE Brett Norfleet moved from doubtful to questionable, and LB Robert Woodyard Jr. and DT Sterling Webb are probable, while RB Ahmad Hardy is still out. Ole Miss S MJ Preston slipped back to questionable (The Rebel Walk, Oct 16). DraftKings still has Ole Miss -5.5, total 58.5 (NBC Sports, Oct 16). No pick change.
Arkansas (2-4, 0-3) at Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3)
6 p.m. CT, ESPN2 | Vanderbilt -6, O/U 50.5 (consensus; totals 49.5 to 50.5, Oct 15)
Two teams winless in the SEC, both looking at the schedule like a man looking at his credit card statement. Neither defense is any good (Arkansas ranks 95th and Vanderbilt 82nd in our ratings), but Vandy has the better offense, home field, and Junior Sherrill and Sedrick Alexander against an Arkansas team that has scored 7 and 17 in its last two. Commodores by about a touchdown, and it’s a cellar scrap, so keep the antacids handy.
Roster check: Arkansas depth chart unchanged; KJ Jackson starts; C Caden Kitler is playing through a foot injury (Hogs on SI, Oct 12). Vandy backup QB Blaze Berlowitz is out after surgery; Jared Curtis expected to play (SI). Spread moved from -6.5 to -6. Wednesday night update (Oct 14): first SEC availability report lists Vandy QB Blaze Berlowitz and six others OUT; Arkansas lists DB Braydon Lee and TE Maddox Lassiter OUT and OL Josiah Clemons doubtful (Hawg Beat/On3, Oct 14). Thursday update (Oct 15): consensus Vanderbilt -6 (FanDuel -5.5), total 49.5 to 50.5. Jared Curtis is back at QB for Vandy (second game since a knee bruise) with Blaze Berlowitz out for about a month; Arkansas C Caden Kitler is available, Antonio Jordan is probable, Gavin Garretson and Josiah Clemons are doubtful and Braydon Lee is out (KJ Jackson starts). Official pick: Vanderbilt 28, Arkansas 20; thin lean on Vanderbilt -6 and no lean on the total (48 projected vs 50).
Kentucky (5-1, 3-1) at Oklahoma (3-2, 1-1)
6:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network | Oklahoma -6.5, O/U 43.5 (DraftKings -6.5 via CFBD, Oct 15; -7 at DraftKings Oct 14)
Kentucky keeps winning one-score games like a man who hit once at the Coushatta and now thinks he’s a genius, and that +7 turnover margin tends to regress. Oklahoma has the #8 defense in our ratings, comes off its biggest win of the year and gets a Norman crowd. The Sooner offense is the limiting factor, so expect a rock fight: Oklahoma by a touchdown, with the total staying low.
Roster check: John Mateer starts for OU but the offense ranks last in the SEC in total offense (CBS Sports); no reported injuries for either team (TeamRankings). Monday night update: DraftKings moved from OU -6.5 to -7 (ESPN odds feed via sportsanalysis.info). Wednesday night update (Oct 14): first SEC availability report lists Kentucky RB CJ Baxter questionable and WR Nic Anderson probable; Oklahoma has WR Trell Harris out and OL Michael Fasusi, G Eddy Pierre-Louis and CB Eli Bowen questionable (KSR/On3, Oct 14). DraftKings has Oklahoma -7 (Oct 14) and -6.5 (Oct 15 CFBD pull); total 43.5, moneyline OU -258 / UK +210. Thursday update (Oct 15): Kentucky WR Nic Anderson is probable, RB CJ Baxter and LB Alex Afari are questionable, DE Tyler Thomas is doubtful and four are out; Oklahoma OL Michael Fasusi and CB Eli Bowen are questionable, and RB Xavier Robinson and WR Trell Harris are out. Official pick: Oklahoma 24, Kentucky 17; no spread lean (projected margin of 7 matches the line) and a lean Under 43.5 (41 projected). Friday night update (Oct 16): Oklahoma ruled out CB Eli Bowen and WR Trell Harris, and LT Michael Fasusi was downgraded to doubtful along with guards Eddy Pierre-Louis and Heath Ozaeta; Kentucky RB CJ Baxter is questionable (On3/KSR, Oct 16). The line is holding at Oklahoma -6.5, total 43.5 (LineSteam, Oct 16). No pick change; those Sooner injuries are a big reason we still have no lean on the spread.
Cajun Commentary: If State covers in Baton Rouge, I’m buying the boudin. If they don’t, I never wrote this, and you can’t prove I own a cowbell.
Picks Summary
Game
Line
O/U
Pick SU
Pick ATS
Pick O/U
Projected Score
Florida at Texas
Texas -11.5
51.5
Texas
Texas -11.5
No lean
Texas 34, Florida 17
Mississippi State at LSU
LSU -15.5
56.5
LSU
No lean now (Thu MSU +14.5 voided; Taylor out)
Under now (Thu Over voided; Taylor out)
LSU 33, Mississippi State 17 (updated Fri night projection)
The Citadel at Texas A&M
Texas A&M -45.5
56.5
Texas A&M
The Citadel +45.5
Under
Texas A&M 44, The Citadel 9
Alabama at Tennessee
Alabama -7.5
50.5
Alabama
Alabama -7.5
Under
Alabama 27, Tennessee 19
Auburn at Georgia
Georgia -19.5
49.5
Georgia
Auburn +19.5 or better
Under
Georgia 34, Auburn 13
Missouri at Ole Miss
Ole Miss -5.5
58.5
Missouri (Upset Special)
Missouri +5.5
Under
Missouri 29, Ole Miss 27
Arkansas at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt -6
50.5
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt -6
No lean
Vanderbilt 28, Arkansas 20
Kentucky at Oklahoma
Oklahoma -6.5
43.5
Oklahoma
No lean
Under
Oklahoma 24, Kentucky 17
Picks can change with news. Picks lock at kickoff, but you can still enter right up until game time. Lines are for entertainment. Gamble responsibly, and never bet the gumbo money.
Cajun Commentary: Disclosure stands from last week. I bleed maroon. That’s exactly why State gets boiled hottest in this kitchen. Every pick below is straight from the numbers and the tape, not the cowbell.