Roux the Day: Gridiron Gumbo’s SEC Week 7 Preview

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Gridiron Gumbo | SEC Week 7 Preview: games of Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 | Posted Monday, Oct. 12, 2026

By T-Rohn. All times Central. Lines updated Friday night, Oct. 16 and subject to move faster than a cousin at a free buffet.

Picks can change with news. Everything below is the Gumbo’s official Week 7 set, refreshed Thursday night, Oct. 15 (and Friday night, Oct. 16, for Mississippi State at LSU after the Kamario Taylor downgrade) with new ratings, current lines and the SEC availability reports, and picks lock at kickoff, but you can still enter right up until game time. If a starter’s status changes, so might the pick.

Eight games, fifteen SEC teams, and South Carolina sitting this one out on a bye, probably icing everything that hurts. Georgia is the last team clean in league play, Alabama is mad, Texas wants respect, and my Bulldogs walk into Death Valley before most of Baton Rouge has finished breakfast. Get your pot on, cher.

Lock of the Week: Texas -11.5 vs. Florida

Texas comes home mad after Red River with the #2 defense in our ratings, while Florida’s defense just gave up 45 and 38 and QB Aaron Philo (shoulder), WR Vernell Brown III and WR Bailey Stockton are all questionable. Texas 34, Florida 17.

Upset Special: Missouri over Ole Miss (safer play is Missouri +5.5)

Ole Miss owns the SEC’s last-ranked run defense (about 176 rushing yards a game), Mizzou comes in with Jamal Roberts off back-to-back 200-yard games and a top-10 defense in our ratings, and the Rebels just lost S Edwin Joseph. It’s the Gumbo’s only straight-up pick of an underdog this week, and it is genuine but thin, so the safer play is Missouri +5.5. Missouri 29, Ole Miss 27.

The Games

Florida (4-2, 2-2) at Texas (4-1, 1-1)

11 a.m. CT, ABC | Texas -11.5, O/U 51.5 (DraftKings and other books, Oct 15)

Florida got booed at its own homecoming last week, and now it gets to walk into Austin, where they boo you in a nicer accent. Texas has the #2 defense in our ratings, and a Florida defense that just gave up 45 and 38 is traveling with a banged-up QB, WR1 and RB2. Throw in a Longhorn crowd still mad about Red River and Texas pulls away. One caveat, cher: Texas is 1-4 against the spread and the offense has been uneven, so respect the number.

Pick: Texas | ATS: Texas -11.5 | O/U: No lean | Projected Score: Texas 34, Florida 17 | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶🌶🌶 (4/5)

Roster check: No injuries reported for either team (TeamRankings, Oct 12). Florida WR Vernell Brown III (knee) likely questionable; he has missed two games (Palm Beach Post/Gainesville Sun). QBs: Aaron Philo (FLA) and Arch Manning (TEX). No pick change. Wednesday night update (Oct 14): Florida QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) is questionable on the first SEC availability report and has been limited; Tramell Jones Jr. has taken first-team reps and would make his first career start if Philo can’t go (Gators Online/On3, ESPN, Oct 14). Vernell Brown III practiced Wednesday, and Texas DT Justus Terry practiced and is expected back (Burnt Orange Nation, Oct 14). The total dropped from 52.5 to 51.5, and the line has since climbed to Texas -11.5 (-11 at some books; DraftKings, scoresandodds.com, Oct 15). Thursday update (Oct 15): Philo is still questionable, WR Bailey Stockton is questionable and RB Duke Clark is out; if Philo can’t go, Tramell Jones Jr. makes his first start (On3). Texas WR Kaliq Lockett is doubtful and OL Jaydon Chatman is out. Official pick: Texas 34, Florida 17, with a lean on Texas -11.5 and no lean on the total (51 projected vs 51.5). Friday night update (Oct 16): Philo is still questionable on the Friday report, and On3’s Pete Nakos reports Florida is expected to start Tramell Jones Jr., with a final call Saturday morning (On3, CBS Sports, Oct 16). Vernell Brown III and Bailey Stockton remain questionable and Duke Clark is out; Texas DT Justus Terry and OL Jordan Coleman are probable (On3). DraftKings still has Texas -11.5, total 51.5. No pick change: the Lock of the Week stays Texas -11.5.

Mississippi State (4-1, 2-1) at LSU (4-2, 1-2)

11 a.m. CT, ESPN | LSU -15.5, O/U 56.5 (DraftKings Friday night via LineTerminal, Oct 16; opened -10.5)

Full disclosure, cher: this is my team, so I held the thermometer extra steady. LSU is the better, deeper team at home (our ratings have its defense around #10 and State’s around #65 after giving up 56 to Alabama), and Death Valley at 11 in the morning is still Death Valley, just with more Bloody Marys. But State’s offense is road-tested (38 at Minnesota, 41 at South Carolina) and LSU’s defense gave up 34 to Kentucky. Then Friday night’s SEC report downgraded QB Kamario Taylor (foot) and RB Fluff Bothwell to doubtful, and walk-on Billy Puckett is the expected starter, so State is likely without the SEC’s leading passer and its leading rusher. LSU wins by a little more than two scores, and it hurts me to type it.

Pick: LSU | ATS: No lean now (pass; Taylor doubtful; Thursday’s MSU +14.5 is voided: Taylor was ruled out on the Saturday SEC report) | O/U: Under now (Thursday’s Over is voided: Taylor is out) | Projected Score: LSU 33, Mississippi State 17 (updated Friday night projection; Thursday’s was LSU 36, Mississippi State 22) | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶🌶🌶 (4/5)

Roster check: MSU QB Kamario Taylor (right foot/leg, left the Oct 3 Alabama loss in a boot) is unknown; first SEC availability report is Wednesday (Clarion Ledger, Daily Journal, Oct 12). At his Monday presser Jeff Lebby deferred all injury questions to Wednesday’s report and said the focus is getting Taylor ready (Starkville Daily News, 247Sports, Oct 12). Billy Puckett is the backup. Line steady at LSU -12.5, opened -10.5 (The Sharp Edition). Tuesday night update: Taylor is still limited in practice and his status is in flux, with a decision expected later in the week (ESPN/Pete Thamel, CBS Sports, Oct 13). The line moved again, from LSU -12.5 to -14 (consensus via VegasInsider; DraftKings -14 via ESPN odds feed). Wednesday night update (Oct 14): the first SEC availability report is out, and Kamario Taylor (foot) is listed QUESTIONABLE, not out; leading rusher Fluff Bothwell is questionable too (The Advocate/NOLA.com, TigerRag, Oct 14). LSU lists only LB Tylen Singleton as questionable beyond its long-term outs (LB Whit Weeks, TE Trey’Dez Green, S Dashawn Spears) (The Advocate). The line ticked from LSU -14 to -14.5 (opened -10.5). Thursday update (Oct 15): Taylor (turf toe/foot) and Bothwell are STILL QUESTIONABLE, LB Jalen Smith is out and Zakari Tillman is doubtful; the backups are Billy Puckett and AJ Swann, and Jeff Lebby hinted Taylor can play through it (On3). DraftKings has LSU -14.5 with a total of 56.5 (some books -15.5/-16). This game could shift after the Saturday ~9:30 AM CT SEC availability report. Official pick: LSU 36, Mississippi State 22; a thin Mississippi State +14.5 lean and a slight Over only if Taylor is confirmed to play, and no recommended play otherwise. Friday night update (Oct 16): the SEC’s third availability report downgraded Taylor (foot/turf toe) from questionable to DOUBTFUL, and Bothwell is doubtful too (247Sports, Louisiana Sports, Oct 16); ESPN’s Pete Thamel reports Taylor is not expected to play (via Sports Illustrated, Oct 16). Walk-on Billy Puckett (8-of-12 passing in two games) is the expected starter, with AJ Swann also on the depth chart (Louisiana Sports). LSU still lists LB Whit Weeks, LB Charles Ross II, WR Phillip Wright III, S Dashawn Spears and TE Trey’Dez Green out and LB Tylen Singleton doubtful (247Sports). The line climbed to LSU -15.5 at DraftKings, total 56.5 (LineTerminal). As promised Thursday, the Taylor-only plays are off: no lean on the spread (33-17 projected, right around the number) and the total flips to the Under (50 projected after the 2-point wind cut vs 56.5). Final word comes with the ~9:30 AM CT game-day report. Updated Friday night projection: LSU 33, Mississippi State 17. The straight-up pick stays LSU. The Thursday plays (Mississippi State +14.5 and the Over 56.5) counted only if Taylor played, so they are voided, since Taylor and Bothwell were officially ruled out on the Saturday SEC availability report: no action, not graded as losses. The Under is the updated Friday night total lean.

The Citadel (FCS) at Texas A&M (3-3, 1-3)

Noon CT, SEC Network+ | Texas A&M -45.5, O/U 56.5 (DraftKings via CFBD, Oct 15)

A&M scored six points against Missouri last week, so Mike Elko ordered a get-well casserole from the FCS. The Citadel are fine military men, but at 2-4 and allowing about 33 a game this is like bringing a pirogue to a battleship fight. The catch is an Aggie offense that has been ugly (six points twice in the last three games), so A&M wins big but 45.5 is a whole lotta crawfish to lay, and the depth chart will rotate.

Pick: Texas A&M | ATS: The Citadel +45.5 | O/U: Under | Projected Score: Texas A&M 44, The Citadel 9 | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶🌶🌶 (4/5)

Roster check: A&M OL Blake Ivy is out for the season; WR Terry Bussey, RB Tiger Riden Jr., WR Madden Williams and DL Chace Sims are also out for the year (SI/All Aggies, Oct 11). Tuesday update: books finally posted a line, Texas A&M -45.5 with a 56.5 total (cfb.app, Bleacher Report, Oct 13). Wednesday night update (Oct 14): non-conference game, so no SEC availability report is required. Thursday update (Oct 15): line unchanged at Texas A&M -45.5, O/U 56.5 (DraftKings via CFBD); QB Marcel Reed is expected to play, and the kickoff time should be confirmed day-of (noon CT on the report, 11 a.m. CT on SECN+ per the SEC release). Official pick: Texas A&M 44, The Citadel 9; lean The Citadel +45.5 and the Under 56.5 (53 projected after a 2-point wind cut).

Alabama (5-1, 3-1) at Tennessee (5-1, 2-1)

2:30 p.m. CT, ABC | Alabama -7.5, O/U 50.5 (consensus, Oct 16; total opened 56.5)

The Third Saturday in October, with cigars on the line. Alabama just got curse-busted at home by Georgia and comes in mad as a nutria in a trap, with a defense that is top three nationally in takeaways. Tennessee has named George MacIntyre its starter for his second career start, and he has to avoid turnovers. Neyland keeps the Vols live, but the Tide is better on both lines and wins by about a touchdown.

Pick: Alabama | ATS: Alabama -7.5 | O/U: Under | Projected Score: Alabama 27, Tennessee 19 | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶🌶 (3/5)

Roster check: Heupel again declined to name a starter Monday, saying the team will find out through the week (ESPN, Tennessean, Oct 12): Faizon Brandon (right shoulder, questionable) or George MacIntyre, who had 3 turnovers vs Arkansas (Knoxville News Sentinel, ESPN, Oct 12). Line moved from Bama -7 to -8.5; total from 56.5 to 53.5 (Gridiron & Wine, Legion Report). Tuesday update: Brandon practiced Tuesday and is still working through the shoulder injury, and Heupel still hasn’t named a starter (On3/Pete Nakos, Rocky Top Insider, Oct 13). The total dropped again, from 53.5 to 51.5 (DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, FanDuel Research). Wednesday night update (Oct 14): first SEC availability report lists Alabama WR Ryan Coleman-Williams and DL Terrance Green OUT, C Racin Delgatty questionable; Tennessee QB Faizon Brandon is QUESTIONABLE (Rocky Top Insider, Oct 14). DraftKings dropped Bama from -8.5 to -7.5 after the report. Thursday update (Oct 15): Tennessee named George MacIntyre the starter over Faizon Brandon (ESPN, CBS, Oct 15); he went 18-of-29 for 247 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT in his first start. Alabama WR Ryan Coleman-Williams and DT Terrance Green are out and C Racin Delgatty is questionable. Totals range from 50.5 to 53.5. Official pick: Alabama 27, Tennessee 19; thin lean on Alabama -7.5 and the Under (46 projected after a 2-point wind cut). Friday night update (Oct 16): Alabama ruled out starting C Racin Delgatty (knee), with Mal Waldrep expected at center, and TE Josh Ford is questionable (On3, Oct 16). Tennessee QB Faizon Brandon is off the report and available, but George MacIntyre is expected to make his second straight start (247Sports, Oct 16). Consensus is still Alabama -7.5, and the total dipped to 50.5 (PlaceBets.ai, LineSteam, Oct 16). No pick change: Alabama 27, Tennessee 19, thin lean Alabama -7.5 and the Under 50.5 (46 projected).

Auburn (3-2, 1-2) at Georgia (6-0, 4-0)

2:30 p.m. CT, ESPN | Georgia -19.5, O/U 49.5 (DraftKings and Bovada; some books -20.5 to -21, Oct 15)

Georgia is the only SEC team still clean in conference play, and they just went to Tuscaloosa and broke a curse like it owed them money. The Dawgs bring the #3 defense in our ratings against an Auburn offense ranked around 62nd that is missing LB Xavier Atkins. Auburn has been competitive and Georgia just survived Alabama 20-17, so I stop short of a 40-point blowout: Georgia by about three touchdowns.

Pick: Georgia | ATS: Auburn +19.5 or better | O/U: Under | Projected Score: Georgia 34, Auburn 13 | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶🌶🌶 (4/5)

Roster check: Georgia unofficial report: OLB Amaris Williams, OL Marcus Harrison, WR Thomas Blackshear out; RBs Nate Frazier (ribs) and Chauncey Bowens questionable; Smart says tailback is thin (AJC, Oct 12). Auburn is off a bye. Monday night update: line moved again, from Georgia -19.5 to -20.5 (opened -16.5; DraftKings via ESPN odds feed, sportsanalysis.info and The Sharp Edition). Wednesday night update (Oct 14): Georgia RB Chauncey Bowens will miss Auburn and his timetable is unclear, while Nate Frazier is eyeing a return (Red & Black, On3/Pete Nakos, Oct 14). Auburn LB Xavier Atkins is not with the team (Saturday Down South, Oct 14). Thursday update (Oct 15): DraftKings has Georgia -19.5 (other books -20.5 to -21; opened -16.5), total 49.5. Georgia RB Chauncey Bowens, WR Blackshear, WR Canion, LB Amaris Williams and S Tyriq Green are out; RB Nate Frazier is not on the report and is expected back, and QB Gunner Stockton is available. Auburn is without LB Xavier Atkins, TE Hunter Herring and OL Tai Buster. Official pick: Georgia 34, Auburn 13; lean Auburn +19.5 or better and the Under 49.5 (47 projected).

Missouri (5-1, 2-1) at Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1)

2:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network | Ole Miss -5.5, O/U 58.5 (DraftKings and consensus, Oct 15)

Ole Miss hung 52 on Vanderbilt, but it also gives up rushing yards like a crawfish boil gives up corn: the Rebels are last in the SEC against the run, at roughly 176 a game. Missouri brings Jamal Roberts, off back-to-back 200-yard games, and a top-10 defense in our ratings, against an Ole Miss secondary that just lost S Edwin Joseph. The ratings see a coin flip at a neutral site, so this is the Gumbo’s Upset Special: Tigers by two. It is genuine but thin as a straight-up pick, and Missouri’s long questionable list and the Oxford atmosphere are real risks, so the safer play is Missouri +5.5.

Pick: Missouri (Upset Special) | ATS: Missouri +5.5 | O/U: Under | Projected Score: Missouri 29, Ole Miss 27 | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶 (2/5)

Roster check: Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy returned vs Vandy; S Edwin Joseph (ankle sprain) is questionable; OL Tommy Kinsler IV is banged up (HottyToddy, Oct 12). Mizzou: no reported injuries (TeamRankings). Spread moved from -6.5 to -6, total from 58.5 to 59.5. Wednesday night update (Oct 14): first SEC availability report rules Ole Miss S Edwin Joseph OUT (ankle surgery; On3, Oct 14). Mizzou QB Austin Simmons is listed probable, WR Cayden Lee questionable, and RB Ahmad Hardy is still out (Mizzou Today/On3, Oct 14). The line moved from Ole Miss -6 to -5.5 (opened -7.5 at some books) and the total from 59.5 to 58.5. Thursday update (Oct 15): Ole Miss has 8 players out in total; Missouri’s midweek list has 24 questionable, including WR Cayden Lee, EDGE Darris Smith, LT Cayden Green and TE Norfleet, while RB Ahmad Hardy is out (On3). Official pick: Missouri 29, Ole Miss 27 (Upset Special); lean Missouri +5.5, the safer play, and the Under 58.5 (56 projected after a 2-point wind cut). Friday night update (Oct 16): Missouri trended up: QB Austin Simmons is off the report, LB Jeremiah Beasley and TE Brett Norfleet moved from doubtful to questionable, and LB Robert Woodyard Jr. and DT Sterling Webb are probable, while RB Ahmad Hardy is still out. Ole Miss S MJ Preston slipped back to questionable (The Rebel Walk, Oct 16). DraftKings still has Ole Miss -5.5, total 58.5 (NBC Sports, Oct 16). No pick change.

Arkansas (2-4, 0-3) at Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-3)

6 p.m. CT, ESPN2 | Vanderbilt -6, O/U 50.5 (consensus; totals 49.5 to 50.5, Oct 15)

Two teams winless in the SEC, both looking at the schedule like a man looking at his credit card statement. Neither defense is any good (Arkansas ranks 95th and Vanderbilt 82nd in our ratings), but Vandy has the better offense, home field, and Junior Sherrill and Sedrick Alexander against an Arkansas team that has scored 7 and 17 in its last two. Commodores by about a touchdown, and it’s a cellar scrap, so keep the antacids handy.

Pick: Vanderbilt | ATS: Vanderbilt -6 | O/U: No lean | Projected Score: Vanderbilt 28, Arkansas 20 | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶 (2/5)

Roster check: Arkansas depth chart unchanged; KJ Jackson starts; C Caden Kitler is playing through a foot injury (Hogs on SI, Oct 12). Vandy backup QB Blaze Berlowitz is out after surgery; Jared Curtis expected to play (SI). Spread moved from -6.5 to -6. Wednesday night update (Oct 14): first SEC availability report lists Vandy QB Blaze Berlowitz and six others OUT; Arkansas lists DB Braydon Lee and TE Maddox Lassiter OUT and OL Josiah Clemons doubtful (Hawg Beat/On3, Oct 14). Thursday update (Oct 15): consensus Vanderbilt -6 (FanDuel -5.5), total 49.5 to 50.5. Jared Curtis is back at QB for Vandy (second game since a knee bruise) with Blaze Berlowitz out for about a month; Arkansas C Caden Kitler is available, Antonio Jordan is probable, Gavin Garretson and Josiah Clemons are doubtful and Braydon Lee is out (KJ Jackson starts). Official pick: Vanderbilt 28, Arkansas 20; thin lean on Vanderbilt -6 and no lean on the total (48 projected vs 50).

Kentucky (5-1, 3-1) at Oklahoma (3-2, 1-1)

6:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network | Oklahoma -6.5, O/U 43.5 (DraftKings -6.5 via CFBD, Oct 15; -7 at DraftKings Oct 14)

Kentucky keeps winning one-score games like a man who hit once at the Coushatta and now thinks he’s a genius, and that +7 turnover margin tends to regress. Oklahoma has the #8 defense in our ratings, comes off its biggest win of the year and gets a Norman crowd. The Sooner offense is the limiting factor, so expect a rock fight: Oklahoma by a touchdown, with the total staying low.

Pick: Oklahoma | ATS: No lean | O/U: Under | Projected Score: Oklahoma 24, Kentucky 17 | Gumbo Confidence: 🌶🌶🌶 (3/5)

Roster check: John Mateer starts for OU but the offense ranks last in the SEC in total offense (CBS Sports); no reported injuries for either team (TeamRankings). Monday night update: DraftKings moved from OU -6.5 to -7 (ESPN odds feed via sportsanalysis.info). Wednesday night update (Oct 14): first SEC availability report lists Kentucky RB CJ Baxter questionable and WR Nic Anderson probable; Oklahoma has WR Trell Harris out and OL Michael Fasusi, G Eddy Pierre-Louis and CB Eli Bowen questionable (KSR/On3, Oct 14). DraftKings has Oklahoma -7 (Oct 14) and -6.5 (Oct 15 CFBD pull); total 43.5, moneyline OU -258 / UK +210. Thursday update (Oct 15): Kentucky WR Nic Anderson is probable, RB CJ Baxter and LB Alex Afari are questionable, DE Tyler Thomas is doubtful and four are out; Oklahoma OL Michael Fasusi and CB Eli Bowen are questionable, and RB Xavier Robinson and WR Trell Harris are out. Official pick: Oklahoma 24, Kentucky 17; no spread lean (projected margin of 7 matches the line) and a lean Under 43.5 (41 projected). Friday night update (Oct 16): Oklahoma ruled out CB Eli Bowen and WR Trell Harris, and LT Michael Fasusi was downgraded to doubtful along with guards Eddy Pierre-Louis and Heath Ozaeta; Kentucky RB CJ Baxter is questionable (On3/KSR, Oct 16). The line is holding at Oklahoma -6.5, total 43.5 (LineSteam, Oct 16). No pick change; those Sooner injuries are a big reason we still have no lean on the spread.

Picks Summary

Picks can change with news. Picks lock at kickoff, but you can still enter right up until game time. Lines are for entertainment. Gamble responsibly, and never bet the gumbo money.

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