SEC
TOP 25

Gridiron Gumbo

Tag: Kentucky Wildcats

  • The 200 Club Meets the Midway: Tennessee’s 31-Game Ground Streak Walks Into a Run Defense Nobody Has Cracked

    The 200 Club Meets the Midway: Tennessee’s 31-Game Ground Streak Walks Into a Run Defense Nobody Has Cracked

    Under Josh Heupel, Tennessee is 37-2 when it runs for 200 yards and has won 31 straight of those games. South Carolina hasn’t let anybody run for even 136 this season. Add a 2-6 Vols record in Columbia since 2008, a point spread that flipped, and the State Fair across the street.

    By T-Rohn, Gridiron Gumbo · Posted Oct. 24, 2026

    CONFIRMED: No. 11 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) at South Carolina (3-3, 1-3), 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPN; both teams’ rushing and run-defense numbers; Tennessee’s No. 11 ranking and SEC-best scoring defense; the DraftKings spread, total and moneylines in “The Line Flipped,” as of 1:25 p.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, with the spread also matching VegasInsider’s DraftKings column; Tennessee as the opening favorite at -2.5 (DraftKings favorite at open). Official school facts, each credited to the school’s own notes, release or site: Tennessee’s 37-2 record and 31 straight wins when it runs for 200, its Columbia record, series history and 2022 details (Tennessee’s game notes); the Gamecocks’ record under Beamer when they rush for 200 or more yards (13-3), their four rushing touchdowns allowed, the Sellers and Fuller yards per carry, and the 2022 yardage (South Carolina’s release); and the State Fair dates, game-day parking, Elvis listing, Pegasus ride and new food (the fair’s own announcement). Game-by-game rushing totals are Gridiron Gumbo math from ESPN box scores. REPORTED: Sports Illustrated’s Vols site carrying the same 37-2 and 31-straight numbers; the Army, Air Force and Navy comparison (Tennessee’s notes only); Heupel’s quote (Sports Illustrated); and Beamer’s quotes (247Sports, with the Knowles quote also carried by On3), each a media report credited by outlet in the text. Sources are listed at the end.

    TAKE (joke):Down in Cajun country, a man who makes a good roux all his life doesn’t change it for nobody. You stir it till it’s the color of an old penny and you don’t apologize. Josh Heupel’s Tennessee has a roux like that. It’s 200 rushing yards.

    Tennessee has had 39 games of 200 or more rushing yards under Heupel and is 37-2 in them, and the Vols have won the last 31 in a row.1 Sports Illustrated’s Vols site reported the same numbers this week.2 REPORTED (Tennessee’s notes only): Army, Air Force and Navy are the only teams to reach 200 rushing yards in more games since 2021.1

    TAKE (joke):The Vols don’t just run the ball. They run it like a service academy with an SEC recruiting budget.

    Saturday at 2:30 p.m. Central, that recipe goes into a kitchen where nobody has been able to cook so far. No opponent has run for more than 135 yards on South Carolina this season.

    TAKE (joke):Knoxville to Columbia is one mountain range, one road crew and about nine gas stations that each swear they’ve got the best boiled peanuts. The Vols have made the drive plenty of times. The 200-yard streak is the only thing that has ever shown up on schedule.

    The Wall in Columbia

    South Carolina’s run defense allows 103.7 yards a game, third-best in the SEC and 25th in FBS.3, 4 That’s the season average. The game-by-game numbers are wilder.

    Gridiron Gumbo went through ESPN’s box scores for all six Gamecock games.5 Here’s what opponents ran for:

    | Opponent | Rushing yards vs. South Carolina |

    | — | — |

    | Kent State | 100 |

    | Towson | 21 |

    | Mississippi State | 135 |

    | at Alabama | 124 |

    | Kentucky | 122 |

    | at Florida | 120 |

    Nobody has reached 136. The closest was Mississippi State at 135, and in four SEC games South Carolina has allowed 125.3 rushing yards a game. Tennessee’s magic number is 200.

    TAKE (joke):That’s not a run defense. That’s a crawfish trap. Plenty of things swim in. Nothing swims out with 200.

    The Gamecocks have allowed just four rushing touchdowns all season, all in SEC play, tied with Texas for second-fewest in the SEC.4 Heupel noticed. “They’ve done a really good job against the run game this year,” he said on the Mike Keith Show, crediting the Gamecocks’ safeties for playing close to the box and tackling well.2

    TAKE (joke):Mississippi State got to 135 and missed the line by one yard. That’s the football version of pulling into the fais do-do just as the band plays the last song.

    Tennessee’s Roux Has Been Thinner in SEC Play

    Tennessee averages 217.1 rushing yards a game, second in the SEC behind South Carolina’s 232.3.3, 1, 4 The split looks different in league play: Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State account for 896 of Tennessee’s 1,520 rushing yards this season, by Gridiron Gumbo’s count from ESPN box scores.5

    | Tennessee game | Rushing yards |

    | — | — |

    | Furman | 329 |

    | at Georgia Tech | 299 |

    | Kennesaw State | 268 |

    | Texas | 70 |

    | Auburn | 237 |

    | at Arkansas | 167 |

    | Alabama | 150 |

    Source: ESPN box scores (Gridiron Gumbo tally).

    In four SEC games, Tennessee has hit 200 exactly once, against Auburn. The Vols are averaging 156.0 rushing yards a game in league play. They are 3-0 in SEC games when they hit 150 or better and lost the only one when they didn’t, a 20-17 loss to then-No. 1 Texas when they ran for 70.

    TAKE (joke):Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State were the buffet. SEC play is a plate lunch: one scoop, no seconds, and somebody’s already eyeing your roll.

    That lines up with the bigger history. Tennessee’s notes say Heupel’s Vols are 44-7 when they run for 150-plus and 1-7 when they’re held under 100.1 So the streak is about 200, but 150 has been the dividing line in Tennessee’s results.

    TAKE (joke):Mawmaw always said if you can’t find andouille, smoked sausage will do. If Tennessee can’t find 200 in Columbia, 150 and a whole lot of defense is the substitute.

    The Vols’ leading rusher is senior DeSean Bishop. He has 837 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, and Tennessee’s notes say 517 of those yards came in the second half, the most in the country.1 He ran 32 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns against Alabama last week.1 Bishop is also 23 yards from passing Montario Hardesty (2,391) for 10th on Tennessee’s career rushing list.1 Those yards would come against a defense that has allowed no opponent more than 135 rushing yards this season.

    TAKE (joke):Twenty-three yards is two first downs and one long argument with the fella holding the chains. Somewhere in Knoxville, a man has already done that math on a napkin.

    The Other Half of the Gumbo

    The flip side matters just as much. South Carolina has the SEC’s top rushing offense at 232.3 yards a game.3, 1, 4 LaNorris Sellers leads the SEC at 6.1 yards a carry and Matt Fuller ranks third at 6.0.4 And Tennessee’s run defense allows about 121 yards a game, 42nd in FBS.3, 1 The Vols’ defense also leads FBS with 30 sacks and has allowed the fewest points in the SEC (14.7 a game).6, 1

    TAKE (joke):Two kitchens, one stove. Somebody’s about to get a spoon across the knuckles, and Mawmaw’s not taking sides.

    But South Carolina’s own 200-yard magic has been a little less magic this year. The Gamecocks are 13-3 under Shane Beamer when they run for 200.4 They’ve done it four times this season.4 By Gridiron Gumbo’s count from ESPN box scores, those four were 278 yards against Kent State and more than 400 against Towson, both wins, then 216 in a 49-18 loss at Alabama and 232 in a 35-34 overtime loss to Kentucky.5 If that 13-3 includes this season, two of the three losses came on Sept. 26 and Oct. 3.

    TAKE (joke):South Carolina’s ground game is like a great Cajun two-step. Beautiful to watch, and it’ll still get you stepped on if the other fella’s got better shoes.

    Tennessee’s Columbia Problem

    Tennessee has won four of the last five meetings, though the NCAA vacated the 2019 and 2020 wins.1, 7 Columbia is a different story.

    TAKE (joke):Winning four of five meetings and still dreading one address is like winning every card game at the family reunion and still getting the folding chair by the bathroom door.

    Tennessee has gone 2-6 on its last eight visits to Williams-Brice Stadium,1 and South Carolina’s release says the same thing from the other side: the Gamecocks have won six of eight at home in the series, starting with a 27-6 win on Nov. 1, 2008.4 UT’s series list shows three of those six losses came by exactly three points: 38-35 in 2012, 24-21 in 2016 and 27-24 in 2018.1 One of Tennessee’s two wins in that stretch, 31-27 in 2020, is among the wins the NCAA later vacated.1

    TAKE (joke):Three losses by exactly three points. At some point that’s not bad luck, that’s a standing reservation.

    Then there’s the last visit. On Nov. 19, 2022, unranked South Carolina beat No. 5 Tennessee 63-38.1, 4 South Carolina’s release says the Gamecocks piled up 606 yards, and Spencer Rattler went 30-of-37 for 438 yards and six touchdowns.4 Tennessee’s notes call it the highest-scoring game in series history, at 101 points.1

    TAKE (joke):A hundred and one points in one night. Somewhere a scoreboard operator is still asking about overtime pay.

    Beamer said he barely brought it up this week. He told reporters Tuesday that Peyton Williams was the only one he thought was still around from that night, which he called “magical.”8 The more useful lesson, he said, is how well South Carolina played in all three phases, and he stressed that this week’s opponent is a completely different Tennessee team.

    Here’s one more wrinkle from UT’s notes. The last five Tennessee games in Columbia all kicked off at night. Saturday’s game is the first daytime kickoff between these two at Williams-Brice since Oct. 27, 2012. Under Heupel, Tennessee is 6-3 in road games played during the day and 7-8 in road games at night.1

    TAKE (joke):So Tennessee finally gets to see Williams-Brice in daylight. Whether that’s good news depends on whether you think the ghosts only come out after dark.

    The Line Flipped

    ESPN’s odds board flags Tennessee as DraftKings’ favorite at the open, and ESPN’s preview and VegasInsider’s opening-line column both list Tennessee -2.5.3, 9, 10 As of 1:25 p.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, DraftKings listed South Carolina -2.5 (-110) and Tennessee +2.5 (-110) on the spread, a game total of 50.5 (over -110, under -110), and moneylines of South Carolina -135 and Tennessee +114, per ESPN’s odds board.9 VegasInsider’s DraftKings column shows the same spread.10

    Lines can change before kickoff. These figures are a snapshot for context, not advice, and Gridiron Gumbo is not recommending a side or a bet. How Gridiron Gumbo handles betting content: https://gridirongumbo.com/picks-disclaimer/

    21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

    That is a five-point swing from the open, toward a 3-3 team over a ranked 6-1 team. We don’t know what moved the number. South Carolina had an open date after its 38-19 win at Florida on Oct. 10, and Saturday is Tennessee’s eighth straight week with a game.1 The Vols are off on Halloween.

    Beamer was asked about that grind and didn’t oversell it. “Maybe you don’t want to stop,” he said of a team playing well, adding that he thinks the effect of a bye week gets blown out of proportion.8

    TAKE (joke):Rested team versus hot team. In my family, that’s the same fight as the cousin who slept in versus the cousin who’s been up since 4 a.m. stirring the pot. The one who slept in looks better. The one who’s been stirring knows where the spoon is.

    The Coach He Can’t Shake

    Tennessee’s new defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles, has been a recurring problem for Beamer, and Beamer said so himself at his Tuesday press conference. “I can’t get away from him,” he said.8, 11

    As Beamer told it, Knowles was Duke’s defensive coordinator while Beamer was an assistant at Virginia Tech, then Oklahoma State’s while Beamer was at Oklahoma, so they faced each other every year at both stops. He called Knowles “a nightmare” to prepare for. Now Beamer is at South Carolina, Knowles is at Tennessee, and they meet again.

    And Then There’s the Fair

    None of this happens in a quiet parking lot. The South Carolina State Fair runs Oct. 15-25 right across the street from Williams-Brice.12, 13 The fair’s own schedule lists Saturday as game day. It also lists “Matt Stone as Elvis” for Oct. 24 on the new Pepsi Plaza stage.12

    TAKE (joke):Elvis on the fair bill the same day as the game means plenty of folks in Columbia are going to be all shook up, and half of them will be holding something deep-fried.

    Fair parking jumps from $10 to $20 a car on game day only.12 South Carolina’s fan guide says tailgating isn’t allowed in the fair lots, and all of the athletics department’s parking is sold out.13 It’s the 21st straight sellout at Williams-Brice.4

    Beamer told fans to “get here early” because traffic with the fair across the street is going to be a challenge.8

    TAKE (joke):Columbia traffic on a fair-and-football Saturday works like a roux. Nothing moves fast, everybody’s stirring, and one wrong turn makes the whole thing stick.

    One of the fair’s new rides is called Pegasus, and new fair food this year includes a Reese’s Donut Burger.12

    TAKE (joke):Pegasus: spins, flips and no idea where you’ll land. Cher, that’s not a carnival ride. That’s a Tennessee trip to Columbia since 2008.

    TAKE (joke):The Reese’s Donut Burger is the only thing near Williams-Brice with no trouble getting past the line of scrimmage, and neither defense is going to stop it.

    The Bottom Line

    The SEC’s top two rushing offenses meet on a day the fairgrounds next door will be serving a donut burger. One team needs 200 rushing yards to keep a 31-game streak alive, and it plays a defense that hasn’t let anybody get to 136. The other team wants 200 too, and it hasn’t always worked out lately.

    TAKE (joke):Two of the SEC’s best running teams, one fairground and zero patience. Back home in Cajun country we call that a family reunion.

    Both teams know the number they want. Kickoff is 2:30 p.m. CT on ESPN.

    Sources

    1. Tennessee Athletics, Game 8 notes at South Carolina (39 200-yard games, 37-2, 31 straight; service-academy note; 150+/under-100 splits; day/night road splits; eighth straight week; series list and Columbia record; 2022 game and 101 points; 2019 and 2020 wins vacated by the NCAA (the 2020 win at Columbia is one of them); first day kickoff since Oct. 27, 2012; Bishop second-half yards and career list; 30 sacks; MacIntyre starts): https://utsports.com/documents/download/2026/10/19/G8_UT_Notes_SC.pdf ↩ Back to story
    2. Charles Mays, Sports Illustrated (Vols), “Josh Heupel previews No. 11 Tennessee at South Carolina on the Mike Keith Show,” Oct. 2026 (Heupel quote; 37-2 and 31 straight; 30 sacks): https://www.si.com/college/tennessee/football/josh-heupel-previews-no-11-tennessee-at-south-carolina-on-the-mike-keith-show-01m5k86sry3t ↩ Back to story
    3. ESPN (Data Skrive), “No. 11 Tennessee squares off against South Carolina in SEC play,” game preview (records, kickoff, ESPN, opening line Tennessee by 2.5, team rushing/defense stats and FBS ranks): https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856731/tennessee-south-carolina and https://www.espn.com/college-football/preview//gameId/401856731 ↩ Back to story
    4. South Carolina Athletics, “South Carolina Welcomes No. 11/11 Tennessee Saturday Afternoon,” Oct. 23, 2026 (6-of-8 at home since 2008; 2022 63-38 details; 21st straight sellout; State Fair across the street; SEC-leading 232.3 rush offense; No. 3 SEC rush defense; four rushing TDs allowed; Sellers and Fuller yards per carry; 13-3 under Beamer with 200+; four 200-yard games this season; Kent State/Towson/Alabama/Kentucky rushing totals): https://gamecocksonline.com/news/2026/10/23/south-carolina-welcomes-no-11-11-tennessee-saturday-afternoon/ ↩ Back to story
    5. ESPN box scores used for the Gridiron Gumbo rushing tally — South Carolina: Kent State https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856665 ; Towson https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856680 ; Mississippi State https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856691 ; at Alabama https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856696 ; Kentucky https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856709 ; at Florida https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856714 . Tennessee: Furman https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856666 ; at Georgia Tech https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856681 ; Kennesaw State https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856692 ; Texas https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856704 ; Auburn https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856710 ; at Arkansas https://www.espn.com/college-football/game//gameId/401856713 ; Alabama https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401856723 ↩ Back to story
    6. Maura Carey, Associated Press (via Yahoo Sports), “SEC Week 8: No. 7 Ole Miss heads to No. 19 Texas…,” Oct. 23, 2026 (No. 11 Tennessee; Tennessee fewest points allowed, 14.7): https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/sec-week-8-no-7-003338959.html ↩ Back to story
    7. Tennessee Athletics, “FB PREVIEW: Streaking #11/11 Vols Visit South Carolina…,” Oct. 23, 2026 (2-6 in last eight trips to Williams-Brice; four of last five meetings; Bishop vs. Alabama; 23 yards from top 10): https://utsports.com/news/2026/10/23/football-fb-preview-streaking-11-11-vols-visit-south-carolina-for-challenging-road-tilt-against-gamecocks ↩ Back to story
    8. Patrick Brown, 247Sports, “What South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer said about playing Tennessee,” Oct. 2026 (Beamer comments on 2022, the bye week, Knowles and the fair): https://247sports.com/college/tennessee/longformarticle/shane-beamer-south-carolina-gamecocks-head-coach-tennessee-vols-game-preview-josh-heupel-jim-knowles-291578542/ ↩ Back to story
    9. ESPN odds board (DraftKings), Tennessee at South Carolina, checked about 1:05 p.m. CT and rechecked 1:25 p.m. CT Oct. 24, 2026 (SC -2.5 (-110), total 50.5 (-110/-110), SC -135 / TENN +114; Tennessee flagged as DraftKings favorite at open): https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401856731/tennessee-south-carolina ↩ Back to story
    10. VegasInsider, college football odds, DraftKings column (Tennessee +2.5 -110 / South Carolina -2.5 -110) and opening-line column (Tennessee -2.5), DraftKings column rechecked about 1:26 p.m. CT Oct. 24, 2026 (spread unchanged), opening-line column fetched about 1:15 p.m. CT: https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/ ↩ Back to story
    11. On3, “Shane Beamer says he can’t escape ‘nightmare’ in Jim Knowles,” Oct. 2026 (Knowles comments, second source): https://www.on3.com/teams/tennessee-volunteers/news/shane-beamer-jim-knowles-nightmare-cant-escape-tennessee-defense-south-carolina/ ↩ Back to story
    12. South Carolina State Fair, “South Carolina State Fair Announces 2026 Lineup, New Foods, Rides and More,” Oct. 7, 2026 (Oct. 15-25 dates; Oct. 24 game day; Matt Stone as Elvis Oct. 24; $20 game-day parking; Pegasus ride; new foods): https://www.scstatefair.org/media/south-carolina-state-fair-announces-2026-lineup-new-foods-rides-and-more/ and https://www.scstatefair.org/ ↩ Back to story
    13. South Carolina Athletics, “Know Before You Go: Tennessee 2026,” Oct. 19, 2026 (fair lots, no tailgating in fair lots, athletics lots sold out): https://gamecocksonline.com/news/2026/10/19/know-before-you-go-tennessee-2026/ ↩ Back to story
    14. Gridiron Gumbo, picks and betting disclaimer: https://gridirongumbo.com/picks-disclaimer/
  • Empty Since 1950: One Win Puts Kentucky Alone Atop the SEC This Late

    Empty Since 1950: One Win Puts Kentucky Alone Atop the SEC This Late

    Beat Vanderbilt on Saturday night and Will Stein’s Wildcats sit alone atop the SEC this late in a season (Week 8 or later) for the first time since Bear Bryant’s 1950 team, per the Courier Journal.1 The last Kentucky team up there finished the job in New Orleans by snapping Oklahoma’s 31-game win streak. This year’s team already took care of Oklahoma. In October.

    By T-Rohn, Gridiron Gumbo · Posted Oct. 23, 2026

    CONFIRMED: Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC) and Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4) records, this week’s SEC schedule, kickoff and TV; Kentucky’s No. 12 ranking (Oct. 18); the Oklahoma game; the 1950 season and 1951 Sugar Bowl; 1976-77 history; availability-report timing; odds as of 8:15 a.m. CT Friday. REPORTED: the “first since 1950” finding and scouting notes, from the Courier Journal; Clark Lea’s comments, from On3; other single-outlet details credited in text. Sources are listed at the end.

    Down on the bayou we’ve got a saying about a house that sits empty too long: either somebody’s fixing to move in, or the raccoons already did. Kentucky football’s penthouse, the one marked “Alone in First Place, SEC, Week 8 or Later,” has been locked up since Harry Truman was in the White House.

    Saturday night, somebody might finally get the key.

    If No. 12 Kentucky beats Vanderbilt at Kroger Field (6:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network), the Wildcats will be alone in first place in the SEC this deep into a season (Week 8 or later) for the first time since 1950, the Louisville Courier Journal’s Ryan Black reported Friday. Black wrote that a win puts Kentucky at 5-1 in league play, a half-game ahead of Georgia (6-1, 4-1), which is off this week.1 No other team can reach five league wins this weekend.2

    Seventy-six years. In Kentucky football time, that’s long enough for the program to go from “basketball school” to “basketball school that also has a football team” and back again about four times.

    There have been near-misses. The 1976 Wildcats got a share of the SEC title only in May 1978, when an NCAA ruling forced Mississippi State to forfeit its win over Kentucky.3 The 1977 team went 6-0 in league play but was on NCAA probation and ineligible for the title; Alabama went 7-0 and won it.4, 5

    The Last Tenant: Bear Bryant

    The man who last held that lease was Paul “Bear” Bryant, in his fifth season in Lexington. The 1950 Wildcats went 11-1 and won the program’s first SEC championship.6, 7 Quarterback Babe Parilli was a consensus first-team All-American that year.8

    The only loss that year came at Tennessee.9 Some things in the SEC, cher, never change. Only the address on the bill.

    Then came the part Kentucky fans still tell their grandkids about. On Jan. 1, 1951, at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans, No. 7 Kentucky beat No. 1 Oklahoma 13-7 in the Sugar Bowl and ended the Sooners’ 31-game winning streak, the longest in the nation at the time.10, 9, 11

    Bryant didn’t beat Oklahoma with a pep talk. The Sugar Bowl’s history says he threw a multi-look defense at the Sooners’ fast split-T offense that sometimes ballooned to a nine-man line, and moved a tackle named Walt Yowarsky to defense, a position the Sugar Bowl says he had played exactly once before in his life. Oklahoma fumbled on its first play. Yowarsky recovered.9

    A nine-man line in New Orleans. That’s not a defense, that’s a second line at Café Du Monde on a Sunday morning, and nobody’s getting through either one.

    Pause on the venue for a second, because it’s a Louisiana story too. The Wildcats’ finest hour happened in Tulane Stadium, back when Tulane was still an SEC member (it left the league in 1966).12 More than 13,000 Kentucky fans made the trip.10

    Thirteen thousand fans, and every one of them went home with the same souvenir: a hoarse voice and a new appreciation for chicory coffee.

    Sagarin’s computer ratings name Kentucky the 1950 national champion,6 and the NCAA’s list of past champions credits Kentucky as Sagarin’s 1950 pick.13 Kentucky fans have been bringing that up at Thanksgiving ever since. The rest of the family has been passing the potatoes and pretending not to hear.

    The Oklahoma Rhyme

    Here’s where it gets eerie, like a cypress swamp at dusk.

    Bryant’s team built its legend by beating Oklahoma. Stein’s team got itself into this position by beating Oklahoma: Kentucky won 21-13 in Norman on Oct. 17 to pull into a tie for the SEC lead.14 The Sooners outgained the Wildcats 346 yards to 230 and still lost, because Kentucky forced four turnovers and committed none.15

    Bryant needed to get to New Year’s Day to take down the Sooners. Stein did it before Halloween. The Sooners must feel like the guy at the crawfish boil who keeps getting pinched by the same bucket.

    UK Athletics says Stein is the first Kentucky coach to start 6-1 in his first season since Alpha Brumage in 1913, and, in the school’s words, “the first coach ever to begin 4-1 in SEC play in his first season.”6 The SEC was founded in December 1932 and played its first football season in 1933. Stein is also on the watch list for the Paul “Bear” Bryant National Coach of the Year Award.6

    So yes, the award is named after the last man to sit in the penthouse. You can’t write this stuff. Well, we can, but only because the facts did it first.

    The Doorman Is Vanderbilt, and He Has a Grudge

    Now for the bad news if you’re wearing blue in Lexington. The team standing between Kentucky and that empty penthouse has made a habit of walking into Kroger Field and leaving with the silverware.

    Vanderbilt has won the last two meetings and three of the last four, including its last two trips to Lexington, 20-13 in 2024 and 24-21 in 2022.16 Kentucky leads the all-time series 48-45-4.2

    Ninety-nine meetings since 1896. These two have been playing each other since before anybody in Louisiana had a car to tailgate out of.

    Last year in Nashville it was 45-17 Vanderbilt.17 This year the shoe is on the other foot. Kentucky is 6-1 and Vanderbilt is still looking for its first SEC win. Commodores coach Clark Lea said this week his team can win if it limits penalties and protects the ball, and he praised Kentucky’s “energy and momentum,” calling it “real.”17

    Food-wise it’s an even fight: Nashville brings hot chicken, Lexington brings burgoo, and the Cajun brings a sack of boudin and the quiet belief that both of y’all are under-seasoned.

    Vandy also brings a receiver who doesn’t do off-nights. Wide receiver Junior Sherrill has caught at least one pass in 44 straight games, the longest active streak in FBS and the longest by a Commodore since at least 1996.16 He has 628 receiving yards this season, third among SEC players.16

    Forty-four straight games with a catch. T-Rohn can’t go 44 straight minutes without dropping a boudin ball.

    The books like Kentucky. As of 8:15 a.m. CT Friday, Oct. 23, DraftKings and FanDuel both had the Wildcats as 10.5-point favorites.18 Lines move, cher. Bet with your head, not your heart, and never with your mama’s gumbo money. Read our picks disclaimer: https://gridirongumbo.com/picks-disclaimer/

    21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

    The Matchup That Probably Decides It

    The Courier Journal’s scouting notes point to one big gap: Kentucky’s defense has 11 interceptions, the most in the SEC, and quarterback Kenny Minchey has thrown just one interception in seven games.1 Kentucky also won back-to-back overtime games 35-34 by converting two-pointers, against South Carolina on Oct. 3 and LSU on Oct. 10, per the AP and UK Athletics. Lea called those decisions to go for two “gutsy.”17 When the other coach is complimenting your nerve, the gumbo’s already got some heat in it.

    Vandy’s best counterpunches, according to the same Courier Journal piece, are history and special teams. Punter Tyler Ebel leads the SEC in yards per punt, and Josiah Broxton and Austin Howard have each returned a punt for a touchdown this season.1

    Check the SEC availability report before kickoff. Under league policy, Friday’s update is due by 7 p.m. CT, and a game-day update posts no later than 90 minutes before kickoff.19

    The T-Rohn Take

    Here’s what makes this one worth a bowl of gumbo. Every Kentucky season has a “this is the year” moment, and it usually lasts about as long as a snowball on a Lafayette sidewalk in August. This one is different because it comes with a receipt dated 1950.

    Most fans keep receipts in a shoebox. Kentucky keeps this one framed in the den, next to the basketball banners, which needed a bigger den.

    Win Saturday and Kentucky doesn’t just keep winning. It walks into a room no Wildcat team has stood in alone this late in a season (Week 8 or later, by the Courier Journal’s count) since Babe Parilli was slinging it, Bear Bryant was stacking nine guys on the line, and the Sugar Bowl was still played in Tulane’s yard.

    Lose, and Vanderbilt does to Kentucky what Vanderbilt has done in Lexington the last two times it showed up: eats the gumbo, compliments the roux and leaves the dishes.

    Either way, somebody turn the lights on in that penthouse, cher. Seventy-six years of dust is a lot of dust.

    And if the place is still on the market Sunday, the listing doesn’t change a word: original 1950 fixtures, panoramic league views, motivated seller.

    Sources

    1. Ryan Black, Louisville Courier Journal, “Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt football prediction, odds for Week 8 SEC game,” Oct. 23, 2026 (solo first place since 1950; standings scenario; interception and special-teams notes): https://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/college/kentucky/2026/10/23/kentucky-vanderbilt-football-predictions-uk-vandy-picks-betting-odds/92149653007/ ↩ Back to story
    2. Southeastern Conference, Week 8 media release, Oct. 19, 2026 (standings, schedule, TV, series record): https://rolltide.com/documents/download/2026/10/19/SEC_Week_8_Release__2026_.pdf ↩ Back to story
    3. Lexington Herald-Leader, “How Kentucky’s 1976 football team became SEC champions in 1978”: https://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-football/article109488107.html ↩ Back to story
    4. NCAA infractions report, “University of Kentucky placed on probation” (1976): https://web3.ncaa.org/lsdbi/search/miCaseView/report?id=102004 ↩ Back to story
    5. SECFOOTBALL.CO, “SEC 1977 Season: Standings & Champion” (Alabama 7-0, Kentucky 6-0): https://secfootball.co/history/season/1977 ↩ Back to story
    6. UK Athletics, “Will Stein Selected to Bear Bryant National Coach of the Year Award Watch List,” Oct. 21, 2026 (Stein’s 6-1 and 4-1 firsts; 1950 season; Sagarin; overtime wins): https://ukathletics.com/news/2026/10/21/will-stein-selected-to-bear-bryant-national-coach-of-the-year-award-watch-list/ ↩ Back to story
    7. Allstate Sugar Bowl, “17th Annual Sugar Bowl Classic ~ January 1, 1951”: https://allstatesugarbowl.org/sports/2022/4/15/17th-annual-sugar-bowl-classic-january-1-1951.aspx ↩ Back to story
    8. National Football Foundation, College Football Hall of Fame, Babe Parilli: https://footballfoundation.org/hof_search.aspx?hof=1783 ↩ Back to story
    9. Allstate Sugar Bowl, “How Kentucky and Oklahoma Met in the 1951 Sugar Bowl”: https://allstatesugarbowl.org/sports/2022/4/15/how-kentucky-and-oklahoma-met-in-the-1951-sugar-bowl.aspx ↩ Back to story
    10. UK Athletics, “1951 Sugar Bowl”: https://ukathletics.com/news/2002/07/18/55ae9c83e4b02cd67304f046-131468125892300672/ ↩ Back to story
    11. Ed Ashford, Lexington Herald, 1951 Sugar Bowl game story, republished with light editing by the Lexington Herald-Leader as “Kentucky time machine: Cats took down a juggernaut in 1951 Sugar Bowl” (May 24, 2020): https://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-football/article241951656.html ↩ Back to story
    12. Tennessee State Museum, “SEC: The Creation and Expansion of the Southeastern Conference,” Aug. 23, 2021 (founding December 1932; Tulane left in 1966): https://tnmuseum.org/Stories/posts/sec-the-creation-and-expansion-of-the-southeastern-conference ↩ Back to story
    13. NCAA, “Past Division I-A Football National Champions” (archived; 1950 Kentucky: Sagarin): https://web.archive.org/web/20080112203239/http://www.ncaa.org/champadmin/ia_football_past_champs.html ↩ Back to story
    14. Associated Press, “No. 15 Kentucky rallies to beat Oklahoma 21-13 and move into a tie for the SEC lead,” Oct. 17, 2026 (as carried by ESPN): https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401856722/kentucky-oklahoma ↩ Back to story
    15. ESPN, Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13 team stats (Oct. 17, 2026): https://www.espn.com/college-football/matchup/_/gameId/401856722 ↩ Back to story
    16. Vanderbilt Athletics, “VUFB Game Week – Kentucky,” Oct. 20, 2026 (recent series results, kickoff, Sherrill streak): https://vucommodores.com/news/2026/10/20/vufb-game-week-kentucky-2026 ↩ Back to story
    17. Tyler Thompson, On3 (KSR), “Clark Lea believes Vanderbilt can beat Kentucky if the Commodores stop beating themselves,” Oct. 22, 2026: https://www.on3.com/teams/kentucky-wildcats/news/clark-lea-kentucky-vanderbilt-turnovers-penalties/ ↩ Back to story
    18. SharpData OS, VAN @ UK odds board (DraftKings and FanDuel lines, checked 8:15 a.m. CT Oct. 23, 2026): https://www.sharpdataos.com/cfb/games/2026-w8-vanderbilt-commodores-at-kentucky-wildcats ↩ Back to story
    19. SEC, student-athlete availability report policy (football updates Wednesday-Friday by 7 p.m. CT; game-day update 90 minutes before kickoff), https://www.secsports.com/news/2024/08/sec-to-provide-public-availability-reports-for-football-basketball-and-baseball; reports: https://www.secsports.com/fbreports ↩ Back to story
    20. Lexington Herald-Leader, “Where Kentucky is ranked in Oct. 18 Associated Press top 25,” Oct. 18, 2026: https://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-football/article317673338.html
  • The Reunion Nobody Scheduled a Family Dinner For: Oklahoma Comes to Starkville for the First Time Ever

    The Reunion Nobody Scheduled a Family Dinner For: Oklahoma Comes to Starkville for the First Time Ever

    Week 8 preview — Oklahoma at Mississippi State, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2:30 p.m. CT, Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville (SEC Network). Picks lock at kickoff. | By T-Rohn

    Saturday Injury Update (Oct. 24)

    Updated Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, 1:11 p.m. CT. CONFIRMED by the SEC’s official game-day availability report, posted 1:00 p.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24. The game-day report lists only Available, Game Time Decision or Out, and the SEC says a player not on the report is regarded as available. Out can also cover non-injury reasons.

    • Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor is not on the game-day report, which means he is available. He was questionable on Friday’s report (posted 7:10 p.m. CT Oct. 23).
    • RB Fluff Bothwell and LB Zakari Tillman are also not on the report, which means they are available.
    • Mississippi State, out: S Isaac Smith, LB Jalen Smith, WR Ayden Williams, DL Trevion Williams and DL Diesel Moye. No Bulldog is listed as a game-time decision.
    • Oklahoma, out: LB Taylor Heim, WR Trell Harris, WR Elijah Thomas, RB Xavier Robinson, TE Trynae Washington, DB Eli Bowen, DB Jacobe Johnson, OL Eddy Pierre-Louis and OL Ryan Fodje. Thomas (doubtful) and Bowen (questionable) moved to out from Friday’s report. OL Michael Fasusi and OL Heath Ozaeta, questionable Friday, are not on the game-day report, which means they are available.

    REPORTED: ESPN (Pete Thamel, citing sources, story updated 10:48 a.m. CT Saturday) reported that Taylor and Bothwell will both be available, and On3 reported Friday that Taylor was expected to play. The official game-day report now matches.

    REPORTED line: as of 1:11 p.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, DraftKings listed Oklahoma -1.5 (-112), total 49.5 (Over -105 / Under -115), moneylines Oklahoma -122 / Mississippi State +102 (ESPN’s DraftKings odds feed and the VegasInsider DraftKings column, both checked at 1:11 p.m. CT; DraftKings had Oklahoma -1.5 and a 48.5 total at 11:11 a.m. CT and Oklahoma -2.5 (-105) and a 47.5 total at 8:11 a.m. CT). Our pick is unchanged below. Lines move, so check your book. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks disclaimer.

    First, Last Week’s Receipts

    We grade our own picks around here like we grade a rookie cook’s first roux — honest, in public, and with love. Last week we picked LSU 33, Mississippi State 17, and the Under 56.5 (DraftKings, Friday night, Oct. 16, per the Week 7 preview). The actual final was LSU 31, Mississippi State 0.

    So the winner pick was right and the under was right — 31 total points sneaks under the number like a teenager sneaking past Mama’s porch light — but Lord have mercy, that score prediction was deader than a crawfish at a boil. State did not score. Not a touchdown, not a field goal, not a sympathy point for showing up pretty. Zero. We went 1–0 straight up and 1–0 on the total in this one, and the record book will tell you exactly how ugly that win looked. That’s how this page works.

    Correction (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:39 p.m. CT): an earlier version of this post said last week’s pick was LSU 34, Mississippi State 24, under 58.5. Under 58.5 was the Monday (Oct. 12) number in the Week 7 preview, and 34-24 was T-Rohn’s own Monday call in the game-day post. The last pick the Gumbo published before kickoff, and the one graded on the pick tracker, was LSU 33-17 and the Under 56.5. The total went under both numbers (31 points), so the result is unchanged.

    Correction (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:42 p.m. CT): an earlier version of this post said our season record starts 1–0 straight up and 1–0 on over/unders. That was this game’s result only, not the season record; see the pick tracker for the full record.

    Wednesday Night Update (Oct. 21)

    The first SEC availability report of the week lists Kamario Taylor as questionable (On3) — the exact same word he carried into LSU week. Back then, as the Clarion Ledger reported, he was questionable on the first two reports, slid to doubtful the night before the game, and was ruled out about 90 minutes before kickoff. Running back Fluff Bothwell, who missed the LSU game, is also listed as questionable. (He came off the report Friday and is available; see the Saturday update at the top.)

    Lebby is deferring to the report, and the report is deferring to the end of the week. “The injury report will continue to speak to that,” he told the Clarion Ledger on Monday. Translation: nobody outside that training room knows. We’ve since checked Thursday’s 7:10 PM CT availability report, and Taylor is still listed questionable, but the mood in Starkville has changed. On3 reported Thursday evening there’s “more optimism than a week ago” and that he’s doing more in practice, and Brent Venables joked on his Monday show that Taylor’s going to play. Our pick held at that point. Friday’s 7:10 PM CT report kept Taylor at questionable, and Saturday’s final report (about 1:00 PM CT) is the last word; picks can be updated until kickoff.

    Meanwhile, down the road: the team that shut State out may be getting healthier. LSU tight end Trey’Dez Green and edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen were not listed on Wednesday’s report, per LouisianaSports.net. Not our game, but misery does love a scoreboard.

    The pick: Oklahoma 25-22 (moved from 23-20 on Sat., Oct. 24). Pass on the spread and the total: DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5, seen at the 4:02 AM CT Sat run (pick first made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings)). Update Oct 21: we first posted Oklahoma 24-17, under 46.5 (DraftKings’ opening total). Revisit after Thursday’s availability report on Kamario Taylor.

    Update (Sat, Oct. 24, 5:57 a.m. CT): Moved the score to Oklahoma 25-22 to match the 47.5 market total (DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5, seen at the 4:02 AM CT Sat run); still a pass on the side and total. Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor is still questionable; the final SEC report is due around 1 PM CT. The notes dated Oct. 22 and Oct. 23 on this page reflect the earlier 23-20 score.

    Update (Thu, Oct. 22, evening): Lines refreshed with the sportsbook named for each. Thursday’s SEC availability report still lists Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor as questionable, so the pick stood at 23-20 (superseded: now Oklahoma 25-22, see the Oct. 24 update), pass on the spread and total. Pick made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings); DraftKings now OU -3 / 46.5 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22. Picks can be updated until kickoff.

    The Setup

    Now comes a game that has literally never happened.

    Mississippi State (4–2, 2–2 SEC) hosts Oklahoma (3–3, 1–2 SEC) on Saturday afternoon in Starkville, and these two schools have never played each other in football. Not once. Not in a bowl, not in 1927, not back when the forward pass was considered witchcraft. The Sooners have never set foot in Davis Wade Stadium, which means Saturday is their first-ever hearing test — and cher, the cowbells do not care that Oklahoma has tradition. The cowbells have never met a tradition they wouldn’t clang directly in the ear of.

    And then there’s the family business. State head coach Jeff Lebby played at Oklahoma, started his coaching career there, and ran the Sooners’ offense as coordinator in 2022 and 2023 before Starkville hired him. Saturday is the first time he faces Brent Venables and his old employer as a head coach. This ain’t a revenge game so much as a family reunion where both sides brought a defense and nobody brought potato salad.

    Both teams walk in limping off a loss. Both teams are playing for bowl position and October relevance now, not playoff fairy tales. Loser of this one is in a world of hurt. Winner gets to breathe.

    Oklahoma’s Case — Give the Devil His Due

    Call it straight: the oddsmakers have Oklahoma favored on the road (opened around OU -1.5 to -2.5; DraftKings went to OU -5.5 Thursday afternoon and sat at OU -3 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22 (DraftKings Saturday: OU -1.5 / 48.5 as of 11:11 a.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026; it was OU -2.5 / 47.5 as of 8:11 a.m. CT), via VegasInsider), with a low total that opened at 46.5, dipped to 44.5 Thursday afternoon and is back to 46.5 at DraftKings — and the desert ain’t in the business of charity.

    The Sooners own the single best win between these two teams: they beat then-No. 1 Texas 27–24 in Dallas on Oct. 10. When quarterback John Mateer is right, this offense can play with anybody in America.

    Problem is, Mateer was not right last Saturday. Kentucky beat Oklahoma 21–13 in Norman, and Mateer threw three second-half interceptions, two of them in the last two minutes. Oklahoma turned it over four times, Kentucky zero, and that was the whole ballgame boiled down to one sentence. The Sooners actually outgained Kentucky 346 yards to 230 and still lost, which is like cooking a whole pot of gumbo, tasting it, declaring it perfect — and then dropping the pot on the kitchen floor.

    Their offensive line has been shuffled all season and is thin again this week, and it tends to show up late in games like a relative who arrives after the dishes are done. But Venables’ defense is real: it held Kentucky to 230 total yards. If Oklahoma just stops handing the other team the football like it’s passing out church bulletins, they’re dangerous.

    State’s Case — And the Elephant in the Infirmary

    Now the home side of the pot, and we are not going to sugarcoat it, because sugarcoated is for beignets, not football previews.

    State’s shutout loss at LSU had a cause, and the cause was standing on the sideline in a boot. Star quarterback Kamario Taylor, who On3 reports has been dealing with turf toe from the Missouri game (State has not said what the injury is, per the Clarion Ledger), missed the LSU game and watched it with a boot on his right foot (Clarion Ledger). Running back Fluff Bothwell missed it too, but he is now off the report and available (Sports Illustrated). Lebby on Monday: “He didn’t wake up yesterday morning and was healed. It’s going to be day-to-day. He’s got a lot of work to do.” By Thursday night the tune had softened. He’s still questionable on the official report (Friday, 7:10 PM CT), but On3 reports “more optimism than a week ago” and more work in practice. So this week’s question isn’t whether he’s in a boot. It’s whether he’s in uniform, and how many steps he’s lost if he is.

    Without him, sophomore Billy Puckett, a former walk-on making his first career start, moved State between the 20s and then watched drive after drive die. Puckett finished 16-of-26 for 121 yards with an interception, and State got shut out for the first time since a 41-0 loss at Alabama in 2020. The effort was honest. The finishing was not there.

    Two things State does have going for it:

    • The ground game showed up even in a shutout. State out-rushed LSU, and Bothwell, its leading rusher, came off the injury report Friday and is available (Sports Illustrated).
    • Home. Davis Wade, afternoon kick, a stadium full of cowbells, and an Oklahoma team that has never heard that sound in person. Plenty of better teams have walked into Starkville ranked, rested, and reasoning — and walked out holding their ears and their L.

    State’s defense still has losses. Safety Isaac Smith, who left the LSU game with an injury, is out, along with linebacker Jalen Smith and linemen Trevion Williams and Diesel Moye, per the official SEC report (Friday, 7:10 PM CT) and On3. Linebacker Zakari Tillman, who missed the LSU game, is off the report and available. Oklahoma has its own list: running back Xavier Robinson is out and receiver Elijah Thomas is doubtful, along with six other Sooners who are out (Sooners Wire), including two offensive linemen.

    The Matchup That Decides It

    This game is a contest between two offenses currently trying to hurt themselves less than the other one.

    • If Taylor plays and can actually move, State’s offense is a different animal and the pick below gets shaky fast.
    • If Puckett starts again, State has to win ugly: run the ball like they did in Baton Rouge, shorten the game, let the cowbells do the pass rush, and pray Mateer keeps donating footballs.
    • Mateer, for his part, faces a simple test: protect the football. He knows exactly which quarterback he was last week.

    The low total — 46.5 at the open, and 46.5 at DraftKings as of 8:03 PM CT Thursday after a dip to 44.5 that afternoon, and 47.5 at DraftKings as of 8:11 a.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, then 48.5 as of 11:11 a.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 — tells you the folks in the desert expect a fistfight in a phone booth, not a track meet. For once, the desert and I agree completely.

    The Straight Prediction

    Here at Gridiron Gumbo we don’t cook the books, even for our own team — especially not the week after our own team got shut out.

    Mississippi State at full strength might well win this game at home. Whether State gets to full strength is the whole question, cher. Taylor was questionable through Friday (reported turf toe) and is not on the 1:00 p.m. CT game-day report, which means he is available; leading rusher Fluff Bothwell is off the report and available, and the defense is without safety Isaac Smith. The optimism is real, but so is the fine print: a quarterback with a reported turf toe who sat out last week doesn’t get his burst back just because the bells are ringing. Against a Venables defense that just held Kentucky to 230 yards, a limited Taylor makes this a coin flip with a lean, and no Taylor makes it Baton Rouge with better scenery.

    Oklahoma is flawed, turnover-drunk, and eminently beatable. But the Sooners have the healthier quarterback, the better defense on paper, and a win over the No. 1 team in the country in their back pocket.

    Prediction: Oklahoma 25, Mississippi State 22 (moved from 23-20 on Sat., Oct. 24) — Oklahoma wins, but we pass on the spread (pick made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings); DraftKings now OU -3 / 46.5 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22, which lands right on our 3-point projection; DraftKings had moved to -5.5 Thursday afternoon) and on the total, dropping our earlier slight lean to the Under 44.5. Oklahoma’s elite defense against a better State offense, plus that home crowd, makes this about a field goal, and Taylor’s questionable status is the whole edge. And if Taylor plays and looks like himself, State is live, and I’ll happily eat this pick in public next week. Crow is a Cajun delicacy when you season it right. But picks are made on evidence, and right now the evidence says “questionable, trending up,” not “cleared.” Lines as of Fri Oct 23, 8:23 AM CT (VegasInsider): DraftKings OU -3, total 46.5; FanDuel OU -3.5, total 46.5. That’s right on our 3-point number, so we still pass on both. Picks can be updated until kickoff. Update, Sat., Oct. 24, 5:57 a.m. CT: we moved the score from 23-20 to 25-22 to match the 47.5 market total (DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5, seen at the 4:02 AM CT Sat run), still a pass on both. Taylor is still questionable, and Saturday’s final SEC report (around 1 PM CT) is the last word.

    Lagniappe

    Win or lose, State’s season doesn’t end Saturday — but its story changes. Win, and the Bulldogs are 5–2 with a bowl trip in sight. Lose, and it’s three losses and a whole lot of soul-searching in Starkville. Either way you’ll get it told straight right here, same as that 31–0 we didn’t dress up and won’t run from.

    Hail State — and good luck to everybody in uniform today.

    — T-Rohn

    Sources: Clarion Ledger (Taylor status, Lebby quotes, LSU-week report history); On3 (Oct. 21 Mississippi State availability report); LouisianaSports.net (LSU report); Lines: DraftKings, FanDuel, Bovada and BetMGM via sportsanalysis.info, checked Thu Oct 22, 4:10 PM CT; current DraftKings line via VegasInsider, checked Thu Oct 22, 8:03 PM CT. Saturday injury and line update: official SEC availability report (secsports.com/fbreports, posted 7:10 PM CT Fri Oct. 23); Sports Illustrated (Bothwell); On3 (Mississippi State report); Sooners Wire (Oklahoma report); On3, ESPN and Clarion Ledger (Taylor); ESPN and VegasInsider DraftKings odds, both checked 8:11 a.m. CT and again 11:11 a.m. CT Sat Oct. 24. Picks disclaimer.

    Update (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:12 p.m. CT): DraftKings now OU -3 / 46.5 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22 (VegasInsider). The score then was 23-20 (superseded Oct. 24: now Oklahoma 25-22); we pass on the spread, which lands on our 3-point projection, and on the total, dropping the slight Under 44.5 lean (pick made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings)). Correction (Oct. 22, 2026): an earlier version listed DraftKings at OU -5.5 / 44.5 (as of 4:10 PM CT); those lines are now updated. Updated (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:32 p.m. CT): named the sportsbook and time for every line; the pick is unchanged. Updated (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:39 p.m. CT): the Oklahoma–Mississippi State pick line now names the book for each number: the Oct. 21 spread (OU -4.5) was at DraftKings and Bovada, and the 44.5 total was at DraftKings. The pick is unchanged. Picks disclaimer.

    Update (Fri, Oct. 23, 8:24 a.m. CT): Kamario Taylor remains questionable, with reports of growing optimism. Lines as of 8:23 AM CT Oct. 23 (VegasInsider): DraftKings OU -3 / 46.5, FanDuel OU -3.5 / 46.5, BetMGM OU -3.5 / 46.5. Pick unchanged at the time (score 23-20, superseded Oct. 24: now Oklahoma 25-22), pass on the spread and total. Clarified: State’s 31-0 loss at LSU was the first time it had been shut out since 2020.

    Update (Sat, Oct. 24, 5:57 a.m. CT): Oklahoma 25-22, moved from 23-20 to match the 47.5 market total (DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5, seen at the 4:02 AM CT Sat run); still a pass on the spread and total. Kamario Taylor is still questionable; final SEC report due around 1 PM CT. Picks disclaimer.

    Update (Sat, Oct. 24, 8:11 a.m. CT): injury text refreshed to the SEC’s Friday 7:10 p.m. CT report: Bothwell and Tillman are off the report and available, Isaac Smith is out, Oklahoma’s Xavier Robinson is out and Elijah Thomas is doubtful, and Taylor remains questionable. DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5 as of 8:11 a.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, then OU -1.5 / 48.5 as of 11:11 a.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026. The pick and score are unchanged (Oklahoma 25-22, pass on the spread and total). Picks disclaimer.

  • 27-24, Three Times: The SEC Upset Recipe Nobody Wrote Down

    27-24, Three Times: The SEC Upset Recipe Nobody Wrote Down

    In eight days, three unranked SEC teams beat top-seven SEC teams by the exact same score. They all came from behind by double digits, and every one was sealed by a takeaway in the last two minutes.

    By T-Rohn, Gridiron Gumbo · Posted Oct. 21, 2026

    CONFIRMED: Oklahoma 27, No. 1 Texas 24 (Oct. 10); Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24 and Florida 27, No. 7 Texas 24 (Oct. 17); the comebacks, the late takeaways and the back-to-back walk-off field goals, per AP/ESPN. REPORTED: details credited to single outlets in text.

    Every good Cajun cook has one recipe she never writes down. You just watch her make it until you can do it yourself.

    The SEC just made the same dish three times in eight days. I wrote it down.

    The recipe is 27-24.

    TAKE (joke): Mawmaw wrote hers on the back of a Piggly Wiggly receipt. The SEC wrote this one on a scoreboard. Same rule for both: nobody gets to see it until somebody’s already eating.

    Everybody covered the upsets one at a time. Put the three box scores side by side, though, and they look like the same game played three times.

    The Recipe Card

    Here’s what all three upsets had in common, checked against the AP, ESPN and the schools’ own game notes:

    • Same score. Oklahoma 27, Texas 24. Auburn 27, Georgia 24. Florida 27, Texas 24.
    • Same matchup. An unranked SEC team beat an SEC team ranked in the AP top seven, two of them No. 1.
    • Same hole. Every winner trailed by at least 10 points.
    • Same finish. Every winner’s defense took the ball away in the final two minutes.

    And two of the three ended on a field goal as time expired. ESPN Research says that’s the first time in AP poll history, going back to 1936, that the No. 1 team lost on the final play in back-to-back weeks.

    Three times is not a coincidence. Three times is a cookbook.

    Batch One: Oklahoma 27, No. 1 Texas 24 (Oct. 10)

    The Red River Rivalry, at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, in front of 92,100.

    Texas led 17-7 at halftime, and Oklahoma’s offense had been sputtering. ESPN reported the Sooners had 69 yards of offense in the first half, and 1 of those came on the ground.

    That’s not an offense. That’s a man looking for his truck keys.

    But Oklahoma scored in all three phases. Dakoda Fields fell on a blocked punt in the end zone. Peyton Bowen returned an interception 42 yards for a touchdown. Lloyd Avant ran one in from 2 yards.

    Texas tied it at 24 with 6:32 left. Then Courtland Guillory intercepted a pass at the Oklahoma 39 with 19 seconds to go. ESPN reported it was his first pick as a Sooner. John Mateer found Isaiah Sategna III for gains of 13 and 20, and replay let both stand.

    With no time left, Tate Sandell drilled a 47-yarder, per the AP. He’d already hit one from 53 earlier in the game.

    “I don’t know if I ever could have dreamed something like this,” Sandell told ESPN.

    Here’s the part I like. Sandell is from Port Neches, Texas, per Oklahoma Athletics. That’s Golden Triangle country, close enough to Louisiana to smell the boudin. He transferred from UTSA and won the 2025 Lou Groza Award as the nation’s best kicker, Oklahoma’s first ever.

    TAKE (joke): Norman has the trophy now. Port Neches has the bragging rights. Louisiana, as usual, has the boudin and will be taking partial credit.

    A Texas boy, raised a short drive from Cajun country, beat No. 1 Texas with one swing of his leg. Ça c’est bon.

    It was Oklahoma’s first win over a No. 1 team since 2007. ESPN noted that in 122 years of the rivalry, the Sooners had never beaten a No. 1 Texas team. The AP put their record against top-ranked Texas at 0-4-1.

    Batch Two: Auburn 27, No. 1 Georgia 24 (Oct. 17)

    Georgia moved up to No. 1 after Texas lost. It turned into what the AP called a “short one-week stay.”

    The Bulldogs led 14-0 in the first quarter in Athens. ESPN Research says that before this game, unranked teams trailing the AP No. 1 by 14 or more had lost 195 straight. Under Kirby Smart, Georgia was 65-0 against unranked teams when it led by at least 14.

    Then Auburn scored 24 straight points.

    TAKE (joke): Athens went quiet. Then it went very quiet. Then somebody in the upper deck asked if the hedges were still under warranty.

    Georgia came back to tie it at 24 with 2:58 left. With 58 seconds to go, Cody Sigler forced a fumble and Sylvester Smith-Reed recovered at the Auburn 44, per the AP and Auburn Athletics.

    Then Alex McPherson hit a 34-yarder as time expired.

    Auburn closed as a 19.5-point underdog at DraftKings for the Oct. 17 game (per LineGauge and GordStats). Auburn Athletics said it was the Tigers’ first win between the hedges since 2005.

    McPherson gave the credit to everybody but himself. “Hudson Powell and Hudson Kaak did a great job, great snap and hold,” he said, per Auburn Athletics. “Our entire line did a great job and made my job pretty easy.”

    Kicking runs in that family. McPherson’s older brother Evan kicks for the Cincinnati Bengals after starring at Florida. Their oldest brother, Logan, punted and held at Louisiana Tech, per Auburn Athletics.

    So a Louisiana Tech punter’s little brother knocked off No. 1. I’m counting that one for the state of Louisiana. Nobody can stop me.

    McPherson has never missed an extra point. He’s 106-for-106 for his career, per Auburn Athletics’ postgame notes.

    Batch Three: Florida 27, No. 7 Texas 24 (Oct. 17)

    Same Saturday. Same score. Same poor Longhorns.

    TAKE (joke): Austin has live music, breakfast tacos and, as of Oct. 17, a strong opinion about the number 24.

    Florida came into Austin off two straight blowout losses under first-year coach Jon Sumrall, per the AP. Quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. was making his first career start, in place of the injured Aaron Philo.

    Texas led 17-3 in the second quarter after Ryan Niblett took a punt back 63 yards for a touchdown, per Texas Athletics and the AP. It was his third career punt-return score, which ties a Texas program record, per Texas Athletics. Tip of the cap to the young man.

    Then Florida scored 24 unanswered points.

    Yes, 24 unanswered. Again. Auburn did the exact same thing in Athens that same day. Somebody’s passing notes.

    Jones threw two touchdowns, both to tight end Lacota Dippre, and didn’t turn it over. Patrick Durkin’s 28-yard field goal gave Florida its first lead, and Jadan Baugh’s fourth-quarter touchdown made it 27-17.

    Texas scored to make it 27-24 with 4:21 left. Then on Texas’ final possession, Myles Graham sacked the quarterback and forced a fumble, and Kanye Clark recovered with 1:58 left, per Florida Athletics.

    Florida Athletics said the Gators came in ranked 131st nationally in pass defense. Against Texas they had five sacks and held the Longhorns to 272 total yards.

    The AP said it was Florida’s first road win over a top-10 team since 2012.

    The Secret Ingredient: Nobody Flinched

    Listen to the two coaches who won on Oct. 17, and you’ll hear the same word.

    “The thing I’m most proud of is that nobody flinched,” Auburn’s Alex Golesh said, per Auburn Athletics.

    Florida’s Jon Sumrall, per the AP: “When things got tough, we flinched the last couple weeks.” Then: “Our team grew today … because we fought.”

    Two coaches, two stadiums, one word. If “flinch” were a spice, it’d be the one you leave out of the pot.

    TAKE (joke): Like raisins in a gumbo. Technically legal. Grounds for leaving the family reunion.

    Dear Longhorns: We Need to Talk About 27-24

    Texas has now lost by the same score in back-to-back weeks. It went from No. 1 to No. 19 in two polls.

    Sports Illustrated reported the Longhorns are the ninth team of the 25-team AP poll era (since 1989) to drop consecutive games to unranked opponents while ranked in the top 10.

    Somebody in Austin needs to check whether the scoreboard is stuck. Two weeks, same numbers. That’s not a losing streak. That’s a screensaver.

    TAKE (joke): Somebody unplug it, count to ten and plug it back in. That fixes the router, the TV and, we hope, the burnt orange.

    To be fair to Texas, it lost both games by a field goal to teams playing out of their minds, and one of those losses came on the final snap. That’s not a collapse. That’s a bad week at the casino.

    Speaking of the casino: ESPN’s David Purdum reported that a three-team moneyline parlay on Auburn, Florida and Tennessee on Oct. 17 paid about 156-1 at Hard Rock Bet. The book said it took at least two of them, the biggest for $10, which netted $1,565.

    Tennessee, by the way, ruined my whole theme by beating Alabama 26-10 that same Saturday, per the AP. Close enough, Vols. You get partial credit.

    Lagniappe: The Recipe Doesn’t Travel

    Before y’all start painting 27-24 on the side of your truck, here’s a warning.

    Oklahoma followed its 27-24 upset by losing 21-13 at home to Kentucky on Oct. 17, per the AP and Oklahoma Athletics. So the recipe works once. After that, you’re just a team that needs a new recipe.

    TAKE (joke): Kentucky brought the recipe for Kentucky. Turns out it’s mostly bourbon barrels and patience.

    Who’s Next to Get Served

    • Texas hosts No. 7 Ole Miss on Saturday, Oct. 24, per the AP.
    • Auburn hosts No. 18 LSU on Saturday, Oct. 24, at 11 a.m. CT on ABC, per Auburn Athletics.
    • Oklahoma visits my Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday, Oct. 24, at 2:30 p.m. CT on SEC Network, per Oklahoma Athletics.
    • Florida gets Georgia on Oct. 31, per Florida Athletics.

    About my Bulldogs. LSU just beat us 31-0 in Baton Rouge, per the AP, and we fell out of the poll. If Oklahoma wants to beat us 27-24, cher, I’ll take it. At least we’d have 24.

    TAKE (joke): Confession Booth: the Cowbell Counter is at “ringing it in the shower.” And LSU fans, quit grinning. Y’all kick off at Auburn at 11 a.m. CT, which in Baton Rouge is still breakfast.

    Every good cook knows: you don’t argue with a recipe that works. You just hope it’s not your turn in the pot.

    Laissez les bons temps rouler, y’all.

    Betting content is for entertainment only. See our picks disclaimer.

    Sources

    Correction (Oct. 22, 2026): An earlier version cited an opening line without naming a sportsbook.

  • Kentucky: William V. Campbell Trophy Finalist, Ty Bryant. College football’s premier…

    Kentucky: William V. Campbell Trophy Finalist, Ty Bryant. College football’s premier…

    CONFIRMEDTip of the cap: Kentucky Football (official) posted: “William V. Campbell Trophy Finalist, Ty Bryant. College football's premier scholar-athlete award”

    Source: Kentucky Football (official) · 10/21 10:00 AM CT

  • Kentucky: The moment we told Ty he’s a finalist for the Campbell Trophy

    Kentucky: The moment we told Ty he’s a finalist for the Campbell Trophy

    CONFIRMEDTip of the cap: Kentucky Football (official) posted: “The moment we told Ty he's a finalist for the Campbell Trophy”

    Source: Kentucky Football (official) · 10/21 10:39 AM CT

  • Kentucky: A man of exceptional courage, integrity, and sportsmanship. Willie Rodriguez is a…

    Kentucky: A man of exceptional courage, integrity, and sportsmanship. Willie Rodriguez is a…

    CONFIRMEDTip of the cap: Kentucky Football (official) posted: “A man of exceptional courage, integrity, and sportsmanship. Willie Rodriguez is a semifinalist for the Jason Witten Collegiate Man of the Year Award”

    Source: Kentucky Football (official) · 10/21 11:00 AM CT

  • Kentucky: Midseason First Team All-American honors for Lance Heard

    Kentucky: Midseason First Team All-American honors for Lance Heard

    CONFIRMEDTip of the cap: Kentucky Football (official) posted: “Midseason First Team All-American honors for Lance Heard”

    Source: Kentucky Football (official) · 10/20 3:38 PM CT

  • Bluegrass Bayou Ambush: How Will Stein’s Kentucky Got Outgained, Out-Possessed and Still Walked Out of Norman Tied for First

    Bluegrass Bayou Ambush: How Will Stein’s Kentucky Got Outgained, Out-Possessed and Still Walked Out of Norman Tied for First

    Oklahoma racked up 346 yards to Kentucky’s 230, and the Wildcats won anyway. Four takeaways and a late pick-six later, the first-year coach has a 6-1 team, a five-game win streak and a share of the SEC lead.

    CONFIRMED: result and records per AP/ESPN. REPORTED: details credited to single outlets in text.

    Every swamp-raised kid learns one thing early: the gator that looks asleep is the one that eats your dog. Kentucky played Saturday night in Norman like that gator, half-submerged for three quarters. Then it bit.

    In fairness to Oklahoma, nobody in Norman was expecting a gator from Lexington. Kentucky’s fan base wasn’t either. Half of them were still checking basketball recruiting rankings.

    No. 15 Kentucky beat Oklahoma 21-13 on Oct. 17 and moved into a tie for the Southeastern Conference lead, according to the Associated Press. The Wildcats (6-1, 4-1 SEC) have won five straight and pulled even with Georgia after the Bulldogs fell to Auburn. On Sunday they climbed to No. 12 in the AP poll, per WUKY.

    Tied for first in the SEC in football, in October. Lexington authorities have advised residents not to make any sudden movements.

    Plenty of folks will tell you Kentucky is “for real.” We’re more interested in how they’re doing it, because the box score from Norman reads like a losing team’s. Kentucky won that game the way a Cajun wins at bourré: patience, a little nerve, and taking the pot at the very end.

    Bourré, for the uninitiated, is the card game where you can lose the pot, your truck, and your dignity before the gumbo’s done. Kentucky took the pot.

    The Yardage Lie

    Per ESPN’s box score, Oklahoma outgained Kentucky 346 yards to 230, had 19 first downs to Kentucky’s 14, and held the ball 31:24 to 28:36. UK Wildcats Wire’s Lee Ann Herring Olvedo wrote that the Sooners kept the ball in Kentucky’s half for long stretches. Most weeks, that’s a loss with a long bus ride home.

    Oklahoma basically rented Kentucky’s half of the field, put up curtains, and still got evicted at the end of the lease.

    Not this time. Asked about the stat sheet, Will Stein said up front in his postgame remarks that stats are for losers, Wildcats Wire reported. Hard to argue when the scoreboard backs you up.

    The ESPN line score shows the shape of it: Kentucky 7-0-0-14, Oklahoma 3-7-3-0. The Wildcats went more than two quarters without scoring and then put up 14 in the fourth while the defense pitched a shutout over the final 15 minutes.

    Two scoreless quarters in the middle. Kentucky’s offense took the longest halftime in the history of the sport and nobody told the television people.

    The Defense Ran a Trap Line

    The AP said, and ESPN’s box score backs up the count of four Oklahoma turnovers, that Kentucky intercepted Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer three times and holder Jacob Ulrich once. That fourth one deserves its own paragraph.

    In the second quarter, Oklahoma lined up for a 28-yard field goal and tried a fake, with Ulrich throwing. Jordan Castell was waiting and picked it off, wiping out three points the Sooners all but had in hand and keeping Kentucky ahead 7-3, per Wildcats Wire. Down here we call that stealing the shrimp right off your plate.

    A fake field goal in the SEC: the football equivalent of telling your mama you already cleaned your room. It works great until somebody opens the door.

    Oklahoma answered with a 90-yard, 12-play drive capped by Mateer’s 20-yard touchdown pass to Rocky Beers for a 10-7 halftime lead, then added a 26-yard field goal in the third quarter for 13-7. Then came the turn. Late in the third quarter, with 3:10 to go, Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace hit Mateer’s arm mid-throw. The pass fluttered, and Ty Bryant intercepted it and brought it back deep into Oklahoma territory, according to Wildcats Wire.

    Sooner fans, at this point, were already looking up how much a field storm costs in their new conference. Patience, y’all. The rate card is flat.

    Kentucky’s offense finally woke up. A seven-play, 44-yard drive ended with Willie Rodriguez catching a 12-yard touchdown from Kenny Minchey for a 14-13 lead with 12:53 left, per ESPN. On Oklahoma’s next series, the Kentucky defense forced a punt without a first down.

    Like a Lexington alarm clock: it doesn’t go off for a while, then it goes off all at once and you’ve got 14 points and a crick in your neck.

    The finisher came with 1:17 left. On third-and-6 at the Oklahoma 32, Castell jumped a Mateer throw and returned it 41 yards for a touchdown, according to the AP and Wildcats Wire. Wildcats Wire noted it was the first pick-six of Stein’s tenure. Bryant grabbed his second interception with 21 seconds left to close it out. That’s four takeaways on the night, and zero Kentucky turnovers, per ESPN.

    Somewhere in Kentucky a fan base that usually spends November arguing about point guards had to sit down on the porch steps.

    ESPN credits Castell with the pick-six, and Wildcats Wire credits him with the fake-field-goal interception too. That would give him two of the four takeaways, and both of the game-changing ones. Somebody get that young man a plate of étouffée.

    The Coach Who Admits It

    Here’s what we like about this one. Stein didn’t pretend his own call was perfect.

    Up 14-13 with a fourth down just outside the Oklahoma goal line, Stein went for it. Minchey was sacked. Afterward, per Wildcats Wire and 247Sports, Stein said: “Part of me wishes we would have kicked the field goal at that point, just because it would have put us up four.”

    A head coach in the SEC owning a decision out loud, in his first season? Mon ami, that’s rarer than a quiet Saturday night on Bourbon Street. His defense covered for it with another three-and-out, then the pick-six made it a moot point.

    Most SEC decisions get explained the way a Louisiana mechanic explains a bill: lots of words, no admissions, and somehow it’s the weather’s fault.

    Minchey finished 21 of 28 for 158 yards and two touchdowns, both to Rodriguez, per ESPN. It wasn’t flashy. It was efficient, and that was enough.

    The Road Is Where Kentucky Lives Now

    This is the part that sets Kentucky apart. CBS Sports’ Austin Nivison, who moved the Wildcats from sixth to third in his SEC Power Rankings, noted Norman was Kentucky’s third conference road win. He listed the road wins as Texas A&M, South Carolina and Oklahoma, and called the win over LSU the marquee result. Nivison wrote that “all of those wins came on the road in extremely hostile environments.”

    Kentucky’s road schedule this year reads like a bus driver’s revenge tour. The program has seen more hostile stadiums than a traveling tuba section.

    Nivison, writing for CBS Sports, also pointed to the analytics: Kentucky is 20th in adjusted EPA per play and second in strength of record, citing ESPN FPI. He also wrote, “At some point, we have to throw out preseason expectations and accept that Kentucky might just be a really good football team.”

    Gators Wire’s power rankings had Kentucky third as well and noted the only loss came against Alabama. That puts Kentucky in a firm position to make the SEC title game in its first season under Stein.

    Think about where the rest of the league is. In the same weekend, No. 1 Georgia lost at home to Auburn, No. 6 Alabama lost at Tennessee, and No. 7 Texas lost to Florida. Ranked teams were dropping like overcooked crawfish. Meanwhile Kentucky went into a hostile building, got outgained by more than 100 yards, and still came home with the W. In a season this messy, a team that does that has something worth more than a pretty stat line.

    The AP Top 10 last weekend was less a poll and more a casualty list from a bayou-side tailgate that ran out of ice.

    Next Up: Vanderbilt

    Kentucky’s next game is against Vanderbilt. Nivison already has a forecast: “just brace yourselves for Will Stein leading 7-1 Kentucky into November.”

    Vanderbilt fans, a famously calm people who mostly storm the library, are said to be ready either way.

    Is Kentucky a true SEC heavyweight? The yardage says “show me.” The scoreboard, the turnover margin and the standings say “already did.” T-Rohn’s take: in a league where everybody’s grandmama is losing at home, the team that keeps winning on the road gets a seat at the head of the table.

    Pass the hot sauce. The Wildcats are cooking.

    Sources

  • Bowl Gumbo, Second Stir: Ole Miss Jumps in the Playoff Pot, Texas Falls Out, and Where Every SEC Team Is Headed

    Bowl Gumbo, Second Stir: Ole Miss Jumps in the Playoff Pot, Texas Falls Out, and Where Every SEC Team Is Headed

    Gridiron Gumbo original projections — Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2026, after the Oct. 17 games (Week 7). Second stir of the pot; last week’s Early Bowl Gumbo is here. Disclosure: your humble cook still bleeds maroon and rings a cowbell (Mississippi State). State got graded like everybody else, and after Saturday in Baton Rouge, that is not a favor.

    Last week we had four SEC teams in the Playoff Pot. Then the No. 1 team in the country lost at home to an unranked Auburn, Tennessee sat on Alabama for four quarters, and Florida walked into Austin and walked out with a win. The AP’s top team has now lost in back-to-back weeks to unranked opponents, which NCAA.com says has happened only five times ever. (CONFIRMED) So we dumped the whole pot out on the newspaper and started over.

    How we cooked it

    These are our picks, not a copy or an average of anybody else’s bowl projections. Ingredients, all pulled Oct. 20:

    • Records and results through the Oct. 17 games (ESPN standings, cross-checked against the CollegeFootballData.com game log).
    • Ratings: ESPN FPI (updated Oct. 20) and SP+ (via CollegeFootballData.com). Both measure points above an average team.
    • The Gumbo Model: we average each SEC team’s FPI and SP+ rating, give the home team 2.5 points, turn every remaining game into a win probability and simulate the rest of the season 20,000 times. Projected records below are those simulated wins rounded, not a game-by-game “favorite always wins” list (that would have LSU going 10-2, which happens in only 14% of our sims).
    • The AP poll (Oct. 18). The CFP committee’s first rankings don’t come out until Tuesday, Nov. 3, so the AP poll and the ratings stand in for now. (CONFIRMED)

    The rules of the pot (re-checked this week):

    • CFP: Still 12 teams for 2026-27. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions get in, plus the highest-ranked champion from the other conferences, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams. The top four ranked teams get first-round byes. (CONFIRMED)
    • SEC ladder: The Citrus Bowl takes the best SEC team left after the Playoff. Next is the “pool of six” (ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Las Vegas, Liberty), which the SEC slots with the schools and bowls while avoiding repeat trips. Birmingham and Gasparilla pick after that. Bowl tie-ins were carried over from 2025 for this one season, and 2026 is the SEC’s turn in Las Vegas in its rotation with the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. (CONFIRMED)
    Cartoon critters fighting over a gold trophy in a giant gumbo pot under the words Playoff Pot

    The Playoff Pot (CFP summary)

    • Georgia — SEC champion, top-four seed with a first-round bye. We have Georgia beating Tennessee in Atlanta.
    • Tennessee — at-large after losing the SEC title game. Projected 9-3 in the regular season.
    • Ole Miss — at-large. Projected 9-3. New this week.
    • Alabama — at-large, the last SEC team in. Projected 9-3, and the bubble is right under its feet.
    • First team out: Texas. FPI and SP+ still rate the Longhorns as a top-eight team, but they’re 1-2 in the league. Saturday’s Ole Miss at Texas game is basically a trade: the winner probably takes the spot.

    TAKE: Four SEC teams is our call, same number as last week, with two new names. The SEC has nine teams in the AP Top 25, but the highest is Georgia at No. 5, behind Miami, BYU, Ohio State and Notre Dame. That’s a lot of competition for seven at-large spots, so a fifth SEC team would need chaos somewhere else.

    Who Moved

    • ▲ Ole Miss: Citrus → CFP at-large. Beat Missouri 31-3 and jumped to No. 7 in the AP poll. 63% of our sims end with 9 or more wins.
    • ▼ Texas: CFP at-large → Texas Bowl. Lost to Oklahoma, then 27-24 at home to Florida. Two league losses in a nine-game SEC schedule leaves no room for error.
    • ▲ Tennessee: last team in → SEC title game plus a safe at-large spot. Beat Alabama 26-10 and has the league’s second-best path to Atlanta in our sims (34%).
    • ▼ Alabama: 10-2 with a home playoff game → 9-3 and the last SEC team in. Lost back-to-back games, and our model makes the Tide an underdog at LSU on Nov. 7.
    • ▲ LSU: Gator → Citrus. Shut out Mississippi State 31-0. SP+ rates LSU No. 6 in the country, and our model makes the Tigers favorites in all five remaining games.
    • ▲ Auburn: Birmingham → Liberty. Won 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia and now projects to 7-5.
    • ▲ Florida: Liberty → ReliaQuest. The 27-24 win at Texas gives the Gators wins over Ole Miss, Texas and Auburn.
    • ▼ Oklahoma: Texas Bowl → Birmingham. Lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky and is 3-3, with six wins a 62% proposition in our sims.

    The Pot, Team by Team

    Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC; AP No. 5)

    Projection: 10-2, SEC champion, top-four CFP seed (bye). ■ STEADY on the destination, down from last week’s 12-0/11-1 on the record.
    The data: Lost 27-24 at home to Auburn. Still the SEC’s highest-rated team in both systems (FPI No. 3, SP+ No. 2). Our sims put Georgia in Atlanta 85% of the time, and it wins out 41% of the time. The toughest remaining game is Nov. 7 at Ole Miss (Georgia 67% in our model). FPI gives them a 78.1% playoff chance.
    TAKE: Kirby Smart’s sideline face Saturday could’ve curdled a pot of milk from across the stadium. Calm down, Athens. Y’all lost one game, not the deed to the house.

    Tennessee (6-1, 3-1; AP No. 11)

    Projection: 9-3, loses the SEC title game to Georgia, CFP at-large. ▲ UP from last week’s last-team-in.
    The data: Beat Alabama 26-10. The only loss is 20-17 to Texas. FPI No. 12, SP+ No. 13. Remaining games, with Tennessee’s chance in our model: at South Carolina (63%), Kentucky (76%), at Texas A&M (60%), LSU (43%, its only game as an underdog) and at Vanderbilt (86%). 79% of our sims end with nine or more wins.
    TAKE: Knoxville’s already printing “SEC Champs” shirts in that traffic-cone orange that makes Mawmaw’s eyes water. Josh Heupel, unplug the printer, cher. Atlanta’s still a month off.

    Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1; AP No. 7)

    Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large. ▲ UP from the Citrus Bowl.
    The data: Beat Missouri 31-3. The only loss is 52-28 at Florida. FPI No. 11, SP+ No. 14, FPI playoff odds 43.6%. The back half is no picnic: at Texas (31%), Auburn (75%), Georgia (33%), at Oklahoma (61%), Wofford and the Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State (81%). Our projected losses are the Texas and Georgia games. Win either one and this goes from bubble to comfortable.
    TAKE: Grove folks are already pricing December hotel rooms in their Sunday seersucker. Pete Golding, keep ’em off the balcony until the committee actually says something.

    Alabama (5-2, 3-2; AP No. 13)

    Projection: 9-3, CFP at-large (last SEC team in). ▼ DOWN from 10-2 and a home playoff game.
    The data: Lost 20-17 to Georgia and 26-10 at Tennessee. Wins include 45-17 at Kentucky and 56-23 at Mississippi State. The ratings still love the Tide (FPI No. 6, 49.5% playoff odds; SP+ No. 12). Remaining: Texas A&M (81%), at LSU (39%), at Vanderbilt (91%), Chattanooga and Auburn (82%). A loss in Baton Rouge puts them at 9-3, with the committee doing the math.
    TAKE: Tuscaloosa’s call-in shows are running hotter than a crawfish pot with the lid clamped down. Kalen DeBoer’s gonna need a bigger net for all them complaints.

    LSU (5-2, 2-2; AP No. 18)

    Projection: 8-4, Citrus Bowl. ▲ UP from the Gator Bowl.
    The data: Beat Mississippi State 31-0. The losses are 32-24 at Ole Miss and 35-34 at Kentucky. SP+ No. 6 (second in the SEC only to Georgia) and FPI No. 8. Our model makes LSU the favorite in every remaining game (at Auburn 74%, Alabama 61%, Texas 58%, at Tennessee 57%, at Arkansas 92%), but stacking up that many 60-40 games still averages out to about 8.4 wins. Two SEC losses already make the Playoff a long shot (FPI: 28.5%). The highest-rated team left after the Playoff is the obvious Citrus pick.
    TAKE: Ten days ago Death Valley wanted Lane Kiffin’s head on a boudin platter. Now the same callers are booking Orlando condos. Fair-weather fans on the bayou? Never heard of ’em, cher.

    Kentucky (6-1, 4-1; AP No. 12)

    Projection: 8-4, Gator Bowl. ■ STEADY: still a pool-of-six team, but the bowl changes from ReliaQuest to Gator.
    The data: Tied for first, with five straight wins capped by 21-13 at Oklahoma. The only loss was 45-17 to Alabama. But the ratings aren’t buying it: FPI No. 26 and SP+ No. 45, the lowest of the top seven teams in the standings. Remaining: Vanderbilt (81%), at Tennessee (24%), Florida (53%), at Missouri (36%) and Louisville (50%). FPI gives them 39.4% playoff odds. Our blend is more skeptical because SP+ rates them so much lower.
    TAKE: Lexington’s tied for first in the SEC in late October, so every bourbon shop in town is down to the bottom shelf. Will Stein, the raccoon’s still on the bricks, but somebody just turned on the porch light.

    Texas (4-2, 1-2; AP No. 19)

    Projection: 8-4, Texas Bowl. ▼ DOWN from a CFP at-large.
    The data: Lost 27-24 to Oklahoma and 27-24 at home to Florida, after September wins over Ohio State (24-23) and at Tennessee (20-17). FPI No. 7 (41.0% playoff odds) and SP+ No. 8, so the talent is real. Our model favors Texas in five of six remaining games: Ole Miss (69%), Mississippi State (88%), at Missouri (69%), at LSU (42%), Arkansas (96%) and at Texas A&M (72%). Still, only 47% of our sims reach nine wins. Along with LSU, they’re the best-rated team we have outside the Playoff. Beat Ole Miss Saturday and the two programs likely swap spots.
    TAKE: Steve Sarkisian says everything in Austin is getting evaluated. Mawmaw says start with the seasoning, cher. That budget buys a lot of cayenne.

    Florida (5-2, 3-2; AP No. 20)

    Projection: 8-4, ReliaQuest Bowl. ▲ UP from 7-5 and the Liberty Bowl.
    The data: Won 27-24 at Texas. That gives the Gators three résumé wins (Ole Miss 52-28, at Auburn 44-39, at Texas) to go with losses at Missouri (45-17) and vs. South Carolina (38-19). FPI No. 19, SP+ No. 38. Remaining: at Georgia (14%), Oklahoma (58%), at Kentucky (47%), Vanderbilt (84%) and at Florida State (62%).
    TAKE: Gator Nation went from “fire somebody” to “book the bowl trip” in two Saturdays. That’s the fastest mood swing in Florida since the Publix deli ran out of sub rolls. Jon Sumrall’s roux is finally browning.

    Missouri (5-2, 2-2; AP No. 22)

    Projection: 7-5, Music City Bowl. ▼ DOWN a win (8-4 → 7-5), same bowl.
    The data: Lost 31-3 at Ole Miss. Still 4-0 at home. FPI No. 27, SP+ No. 20. Remaining: at Arkansas (77%), Texas (31%), at Georgia (12%), Kentucky (64%) and Oklahoma (61%). Nashville stays an easy drive.
    TAKE: The Show-Me State finally has a demand for Eli Drinkwitz: show us a touchdown from the 2-yard line. Bring a covered dish to Nashville anyway, y’all.

    Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2; receiving votes) (the cook’s team, graded fair)

    Projection: 7-5, Las Vegas Bowl. ■ STEADY on record and bowl, even though the computers now like State less.
    The data: Lost 31-0 at LSU and fell out of the AP Top 25 (was No. 16). FPI dropped to No. 38, the lowest of any SEC team we project to a bowl; SP+ has them No. 47. The early wins still count: at South Carolina 41-34, Missouri 31-24, at Minnesota 38-13. The path to 7-5: Tennessee Tech and Vanderbilt (77%) at home, plus one of two home coin flips, Oklahoma (48%) and Auburn (49%). FPI gives them a 92.2% shot at bowl eligibility.
    TAKE: Starkville’s cowbells went so quiet in Baton Rouge you could hear a crawfish sneeze. Jeff Lebby, when you’re inside the 40, Mawmaw says take the three points and say thank you. (Disclosure: the cook rang his into a pillow all weekend.)

    Auburn (4-2, 2-2; receiving votes)

    Projection: 7-5, Liberty Bowl. ▲ UP from 6-6 and the Birmingham Bowl.
    The data: Won 27-24 at No. 1 Georgia with a field goal as time expired. Losses are 44-39 to Florida and 24-14 at Tennessee. FPI No. 21 (96.2% for six wins), SP+ No. 40. The back half is brutal: LSU (26%), at Ole Miss (25%), Arkansas (83%), at Mississippi State (51%), Samford and at Alabama (18%).
    TAKE: Auburn folks rolled Toomer’s so hard after Athens that Lee County is rationing toilet paper like it’s hurricane season. Alex Golesh won’t buy his own supper till Easter.

    Oklahoma (3-3, 1-2)

    Projection: 6-6, Birmingham Bowl. ▼ DOWN from 7-5 and the Texas Bowl.
    The data: Lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky. The other losses are at Michigan (17-10) and at Georgia (41-13), and the big win is 27-24 over Texas. FPI No. 22, SP+ No. 34. FPI puts six wins at 65.0%, and we have it at 62%. Remaining: at Mississippi State (52%), South Carolina (59%), at Florida (42%), Ole Miss (39%), Texas A&M (57%) and at Missouri (39%).
    TAKE: Last week Sooner Nation was planning a parade. Now Brent Venables’ parade route runs straight to Birmingham, and the band’s down to one kazoo.

    South Carolina (3-3, 1-3)

    Projection: 6-6, Gasparilla Bowl. ■ STEADY.
    The data: Had a week off. The SEC losses are 41-34 to Mississippi State, 49-18 at Alabama and 35-34 to Kentucky, and the win is 38-19 at Florida. FPI No. 29, SP+ No. 32. FPI puts bowl eligibility at 56.9%, and we have it at 62%. Remaining: Tennessee (37%), at Oklahoma (41%), Texas A&M (55%), at Arkansas (72%), Georgia (17%) and at Clemson (62%).
    TAKE: Columbia’s bowl hopes are a 6-6 coin flip, and somehow Gamecock fans already know which ref is gonna blow it. Shane Beamer, keep the visor on and the antacids close.

    Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3)

    Projection: 6-6, bowl TBD (SEC backup slot). ■ STEADY.
    The data: Beat The Citadel 41-0. The SEC losses are to Kentucky (31-21), at LSU (35-6) and at Missouri (27-6). FPI rates them better than their record (No. 20, 61.1% for six wins), and SP+ has them No. 33. They need two wins from at Alabama (19%), at South Carolina (45%), Tennessee (40%), at Oklahoma (43%) and Texas (28%), and they’re the underdog in all five. If all 14 teams get to six wins, the SEC’s tie-ins run out of seats, so A&M lands in a leftover bowl.
    TAKE: College Station’s got the budget of a Houston oil company and the October of a church-league softball team. Mike Elko’s kitchen still smells like burnt roux.

    Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4)

    Projection: 4-8, no bowl. ■ STEADY.
    The data: Four straight losses, the latest 31-21 at home to Arkansas. FPI No. 66 (2.8% bowl odds), SP+ No. 71. They’d need three wins from at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, Alabama, at Florida and Tennessee, and our model doesn’t favor them in any of the five.
    TAKE: Vandy fans ran the bowl math, double-checked it, showed their work, and quietly bought basketball tickets. Clark Lea, at least the library’s open late.

    Arkansas (3-4, 1-3)

    Projection: 4-8, no bowl. ■ STEADY on the destination, up a win from last week’s 3-9.
    The data: Won 31-21 at Vanderbilt for their first SEC win of the year. FPI No. 58 (4.4% bowl odds), SP+ No. 82. They’re the underdog in all five remaining games: Missouri, at Auburn, South Carolina, at Texas and LSU.
    TAKE: Ryan Silverfield got his first SEC win and Fayetteville called the Hogs so loud the cows in Missouri stopped giving milk. In the Ozarks, cher, 4-8 counts as a rebuilding plan with a tailgate.

    The Tally

    4 CFP teams (Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama), plus Citrus (LSU), plus the pool of six (Florida–ReliaQuest, Kentucky–Gator, Texas–Texas Bowl, Missouri–Music City, Mississippi State–Las Vegas, Auburn–Liberty), plus Birmingham (Oklahoma) and Gasparilla (South Carolina), plus Texas A&M in a backup slot. That’s 14 bowl-eligible teams, the same as last week. Vanderbilt and Arkansas stay home.

    Where the computers argue with us: FPI gives Texas (41.0%) and Kentucky (39.4%) playoff odds right next to Ole Miss (43.6%) and Tennessee (44.7%). We went with Ole Miss because of its schedule and SP+. If Texas wins Saturday, we’ll eat the crow, cher. It goes great with rice.

    Games that move the pot this week (Oct. 24): Ole Miss at Texas (a playoff spot is basically on the line), Tennessee at South Carolina, LSU at Auburn, Oklahoma at Mississippi State (a 52-48 coin flip in our model), and Texas A&M at Alabama.

    More from the pot: our Week 7 recap and why Georgia still deserves the SEC crown.

    Sources (data)

    Gridiron Gumbo: SEC football, seasoned in Southwest Louisiana. Projections are our own TAKE built on the data above. Records and ratings are CONFIRMED as of Oct. 20, 2026.

Report an error

Tell us what we got wrong. An editor will check it.

We use your name and email only to follow up on this report. Leave them blank if you like.