The Reunion Nobody Scheduled a Family Dinner For: Oklahoma Comes to Starkville for the First Time Ever

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Week 8 preview — Oklahoma at Mississippi State, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2:30 p.m. CT, Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville (SEC Network). Picks lock at kickoff. | By T-Rohn

Saturday Injury Update (Oct. 24)

Updated Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, 1:11 p.m. CT. CONFIRMED by the SEC’s official game-day availability report, posted 1:00 p.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24. The game-day report lists only Available, Game Time Decision or Out, and the SEC says a player not on the report is regarded as available. Out can also cover non-injury reasons.

• Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor is not on the game-day report, which means he is available. He was questionable on Friday’s report (posted 7:10 p.m. CT Oct. 23).
• RB Fluff Bothwell and LB Zakari Tillman are also not on the report, which means they are available.
• Mississippi State, out: S Isaac Smith, LB Jalen Smith, WR Ayden Williams, DL Trevion Williams and DL Diesel Moye. No Bulldog is listed as a game-time decision.
• Oklahoma, out: LB Taylor Heim, WR Trell Harris, WR Elijah Thomas, RB Xavier Robinson, TE Trynae Washington, DB Eli Bowen, DB Jacobe Johnson, OL Eddy Pierre-Louis and OL Ryan Fodje. Thomas (doubtful) and Bowen (questionable) moved to out from Friday’s report. OL Michael Fasusi and OL Heath Ozaeta, questionable Friday, are not on the game-day report, which means they are available.

REPORTED: ESPN (Pete Thamel, citing sources, story updated 10:48 a.m. CT Saturday) reported that Taylor and Bothwell will both be available, and On3 reported Friday that Taylor was expected to play. The official game-day report now matches.

REPORTED line: as of 1:11 p.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, DraftKings listed Oklahoma -1.5 (-112), total 49.5 (Over -105 / Under -115), moneylines Oklahoma -122 / Mississippi State +102 (ESPN’s DraftKings odds feed and the VegasInsider DraftKings column, both checked at 1:11 p.m. CT; DraftKings had Oklahoma -1.5 and a 48.5 total at 11:11 a.m. CT and Oklahoma -2.5 (-105) and a 47.5 total at 8:11 a.m. CT). Our pick is unchanged below. Lines move, so check your book. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks disclaimer.

First, Last Week’s Receipts

We grade our own picks around here like we grade a rookie cook’s first roux — honest, in public, and with love. Last week we picked LSU 33, Mississippi State 17, and the Under 56.5 (DraftKings, Friday night, Oct. 16, per the Week 7 preview). The actual final was LSU 31, Mississippi State 0.

So the winner pick was right and the under was right — 31 total points sneaks under the number like a teenager sneaking past Mama’s porch light — but Lord have mercy, that score prediction was deader than a crawfish at a boil. State did not score. Not a touchdown, not a field goal, not a sympathy point for showing up pretty. Zero. We went 1–0 straight up and 1–0 on the total in this one, and the record book will tell you exactly how ugly that win looked. That’s how this page works.

Correction (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:39 p.m. CT): an earlier version of this post said last week’s pick was LSU 34, Mississippi State 24, under 58.5. Under 58.5 was the Monday (Oct. 12) number in the Week 7 preview, and 34-24 was T-Rohn’s own Monday call in the game-day post. The last pick the Gumbo published before kickoff, and the one graded on the pick tracker, was LSU 33-17 and the Under 56.5. The total went under both numbers (31 points), so the result is unchanged.

Correction (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:42 p.m. CT): an earlier version of this post said our season record starts 1–0 straight up and 1–0 on over/unders. That was this game’s result only, not the season record; see the pick tracker for the full record.

Wednesday Night Update (Oct. 21)

The first SEC availability report of the week lists Kamario Taylor as questionable (On3) — the exact same word he carried into LSU week. Back then, as the Clarion Ledger reported, he was questionable on the first two reports, slid to doubtful the night before the game, and was ruled out about 90 minutes before kickoff. Running back Fluff Bothwell, who missed the LSU game, is also listed as questionable. (He came off the report Friday and is available; see the Saturday update at the top.)

Lebby is deferring to the report, and the report is deferring to the end of the week. “The injury report will continue to speak to that,” he told the Clarion Ledger on Monday. Translation: nobody outside that training room knows. We’ve since checked Thursday’s 7:10 PM CT availability report, and Taylor is still listed questionable, but the mood in Starkville has changed. On3 reported Thursday evening there’s “more optimism than a week ago” and that he’s doing more in practice, and Brent Venables joked on his Monday show that Taylor’s going to play. Our pick held at that point. Friday’s 7:10 PM CT report kept Taylor at questionable, and Saturday’s final report (about 1:00 PM CT) is the last word; picks can be updated until kickoff.

Meanwhile, down the road: the team that shut State out may be getting healthier. LSU tight end Trey’Dez Green and edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen were not listed on Wednesday’s report, per LouisianaSports.net. Not our game, but misery does love a scoreboard.

The pick: Oklahoma 25-22 (moved from 23-20 on Sat., Oct. 24). Pass on the spread and the total: DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5, seen at the 4:02 AM CT Sat run (pick first made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings)). Update Oct 21: we first posted Oklahoma 24-17, under 46.5 (DraftKings’ opening total). Revisit after Thursday’s availability report on Kamario Taylor.

Update (Sat, Oct. 24, 5:57 a.m. CT): Moved the score to Oklahoma 25-22 to match the 47.5 market total (DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5, seen at the 4:02 AM CT Sat run); still a pass on the side and total. Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor is still questionable; the final SEC report is due around 1 PM CT. The notes dated Oct. 22 and Oct. 23 on this page reflect the earlier 23-20 score.

Update (Thu, Oct. 22, evening): Lines refreshed with the sportsbook named for each. Thursday’s SEC availability report still lists Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor as questionable, so the pick stood at 23-20 (superseded: now Oklahoma 25-22, see the Oct. 24 update), pass on the spread and total. Pick made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings); DraftKings now OU -3 / 46.5 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22. Picks can be updated until kickoff.

The Setup

Now comes a game that has literally never happened.

Mississippi State (4–2, 2–2 SEC) hosts Oklahoma (3–3, 1–2 SEC) on Saturday afternoon in Starkville, and these two schools have never played each other in football. Not once. Not in a bowl, not in 1927, not back when the forward pass was considered witchcraft. The Sooners have never set foot in Davis Wade Stadium, which means Saturday is their first-ever hearing test — and cher, the cowbells do not care that Oklahoma has tradition. The cowbells have never met a tradition they wouldn’t clang directly in the ear of.

And then there’s the family business. State head coach Jeff Lebby played at Oklahoma, started his coaching career there, and ran the Sooners’ offense as coordinator in 2022 and 2023 before Starkville hired him. Saturday is the first time he faces Brent Venables and his old employer as a head coach. This ain’t a revenge game so much as a family reunion where both sides brought a defense and nobody brought potato salad.

Both teams walk in limping off a loss. Both teams are playing for bowl position and October relevance now, not playoff fairy tales. Loser of this one is in a world of hurt. Winner gets to breathe.

Oklahoma’s Case — Give the Devil His Due

Call it straight: the oddsmakers have Oklahoma favored on the road (opened around OU -1.5 to -2.5; DraftKings went to OU -5.5 Thursday afternoon and sat at OU -3 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22 (DraftKings Saturday: OU -1.5 / 48.5 as of 11:11 a.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026; it was OU -2.5 / 47.5 as of 8:11 a.m. CT), via VegasInsider), with a low total that opened at 46.5, dipped to 44.5 Thursday afternoon and is back to 46.5 at DraftKings — and the desert ain’t in the business of charity.

The Sooners own the single best win between these two teams: they beat then-No. 1 Texas 27–24 in Dallas on Oct. 10. When quarterback John Mateer is right, this offense can play with anybody in America.

Problem is, Mateer was not right last Saturday. Kentucky beat Oklahoma 21–13 in Norman, and Mateer threw three second-half interceptions, two of them in the last two minutes. Oklahoma turned it over four times, Kentucky zero, and that was the whole ballgame boiled down to one sentence. The Sooners actually outgained Kentucky 346 yards to 230 and still lost, which is like cooking a whole pot of gumbo, tasting it, declaring it perfect — and then dropping the pot on the kitchen floor.

Their offensive line has been shuffled all season and is thin again this week, and it tends to show up late in games like a relative who arrives after the dishes are done. But Venables’ defense is real: it held Kentucky to 230 total yards. If Oklahoma just stops handing the other team the football like it’s passing out church bulletins, they’re dangerous.

State’s Case — And the Elephant in the Infirmary

Now the home side of the pot, and we are not going to sugarcoat it, because sugarcoated is for beignets, not football previews.

State’s shutout loss at LSU had a cause, and the cause was standing on the sideline in a boot. Star quarterback Kamario Taylor, who On3 reports has been dealing with turf toe from the Missouri game (State has not said what the injury is, per the Clarion Ledger), missed the LSU game and watched it with a boot on his right foot (Clarion Ledger). Running back Fluff Bothwell missed it too, but he is now off the report and available (Sports Illustrated). Lebby on Monday: “He didn’t wake up yesterday morning and was healed. It’s going to be day-to-day. He’s got a lot of work to do.” By Thursday night the tune had softened. He’s still questionable on the official report (Friday, 7:10 PM CT), but On3 reports “more optimism than a week ago” and more work in practice. So this week’s question isn’t whether he’s in a boot. It’s whether he’s in uniform, and how many steps he’s lost if he is.

Without him, sophomore Billy Puckett, a former walk-on making his first career start, moved State between the 20s and then watched drive after drive die. Puckett finished 16-of-26 for 121 yards with an interception, and State got shut out for the first time since a 41-0 loss at Alabama in 2020. The effort was honest. The finishing was not there.

Two things State does have going for it:

• The ground game showed up even in a shutout. State out-rushed LSU, and Bothwell, its leading rusher, came off the injury report Friday and is available (Sports Illustrated).
• Home. Davis Wade, afternoon kick, a stadium full of cowbells, and an Oklahoma team that has never heard that sound in person. Plenty of better teams have walked into Starkville ranked, rested, and reasoning — and walked out holding their ears and their L.

State’s defense still has losses. Safety Isaac Smith, who left the LSU game with an injury, is out, along with linebacker Jalen Smith and linemen Trevion Williams and Diesel Moye, per the official SEC report (Friday, 7:10 PM CT) and On3. Linebacker Zakari Tillman, who missed the LSU game, is off the report and available. Oklahoma has its own list: running back Xavier Robinson is out and receiver Elijah Thomas is doubtful, along with six other Sooners who are out (Sooners Wire), including two offensive linemen.

The Matchup That Decides It

This game is a contest between two offenses currently trying to hurt themselves less than the other one.

• If Taylor plays and can actually move, State’s offense is a different animal and the pick below gets shaky fast.
• If Puckett starts again, State has to win ugly: run the ball like they did in Baton Rouge, shorten the game, let the cowbells do the pass rush, and pray Mateer keeps donating footballs.
• Mateer, for his part, faces a simple test: protect the football. He knows exactly which quarterback he was last week.

The low total — 46.5 at the open, and 46.5 at DraftKings as of 8:03 PM CT Thursday after a dip to 44.5 that afternoon, and 47.5 at DraftKings as of 8:11 a.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, then 48.5 as of 11:11 a.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 — tells you the folks in the desert expect a fistfight in a phone booth, not a track meet. For once, the desert and I agree completely.

The Straight Prediction

Here at Gridiron Gumbo we don’t cook the books, even for our own team — especially not the week after our own team got shut out.

Mississippi State at full strength might well win this game at home. Whether State gets to full strength is the whole question, cher. Taylor was questionable through Friday (reported turf toe) and is not on the 1:00 p.m. CT game-day report, which means he is available; leading rusher Fluff Bothwell is off the report and available, and the defense is without safety Isaac Smith. The optimism is real, but so is the fine print: a quarterback with a reported turf toe who sat out last week doesn’t get his burst back just because the bells are ringing. Against a Venables defense that just held Kentucky to 230 yards, a limited Taylor makes this a coin flip with a lean, and no Taylor makes it Baton Rouge with better scenery.

Oklahoma is flawed, turnover-drunk, and eminently beatable. But the Sooners have the healthier quarterback, the better defense on paper, and a win over the No. 1 team in the country in their back pocket.

Prediction: Oklahoma 25, Mississippi State 22 (moved from 23-20 on Sat., Oct. 24) — Oklahoma wins, but we pass on the spread (pick made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings); DraftKings now OU -3 / 46.5 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22, which lands right on our 3-point projection; DraftKings had moved to -5.5 Thursday afternoon) and on the total, dropping our earlier slight lean to the Under 44.5. Oklahoma’s elite defense against a better State offense, plus that home crowd, makes this about a field goal, and Taylor’s questionable status is the whole edge. And if Taylor plays and looks like himself, State is live, and I’ll happily eat this pick in public next week. Crow is a Cajun delicacy when you season it right. But picks are made on evidence, and right now the evidence says “questionable, trending up,” not “cleared.” Lines as of Fri Oct 23, 8:23 AM CT (VegasInsider): DraftKings OU -3, total 46.5; FanDuel OU -3.5, total 46.5. That’s right on our 3-point number, so we still pass on both. Picks can be updated until kickoff. Update, Sat., Oct. 24, 5:57 a.m. CT: we moved the score from 23-20 to 25-22 to match the 47.5 market total (DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5, seen at the 4:02 AM CT Sat run), still a pass on both. Taylor is still questionable, and Saturday’s final SEC report (around 1 PM CT) is the last word.

Lagniappe

Win or lose, State’s season doesn’t end Saturday — but its story changes. Win, and the Bulldogs are 5–2 with a bowl trip in sight. Lose, and it’s three losses and a whole lot of soul-searching in Starkville. Either way you’ll get it told straight right here, same as that 31–0 we didn’t dress up and won’t run from.

Hail State — and good luck to everybody in uniform today.

— T-Rohn

Sources: Clarion Ledger (Taylor status, Lebby quotes, LSU-week report history); On3 (Oct. 21 Mississippi State availability report); LouisianaSports.net (LSU report); Lines: DraftKings, FanDuel, Bovada and BetMGM via sportsanalysis.info, checked Thu Oct 22, 4:10 PM CT; current DraftKings line via VegasInsider, checked Thu Oct 22, 8:03 PM CT. Saturday injury and line update: official SEC availability report (secsports.com/fbreports, posted 7:10 PM CT Fri Oct. 23); Sports Illustrated (Bothwell); On3 (Mississippi State report); Sooners Wire (Oklahoma report); On3, ESPN and Clarion Ledger (Taylor); ESPN and VegasInsider DraftKings odds, both checked 8:11 a.m. CT and again 11:11 a.m. CT Sat Oct. 24. Picks disclaimer.

Update (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:12 p.m. CT): DraftKings now OU -3 / 46.5 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22 (VegasInsider). The score then was 23-20 (superseded Oct. 24: now Oklahoma 25-22); we pass on the spread, which lands on our 3-point projection, and on the total, dropping the slight Under 44.5 lean (pick made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings)). Correction (Oct. 22, 2026): an earlier version listed DraftKings at OU -5.5 / 44.5 (as of 4:10 PM CT); those lines are now updated. Updated (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:32 p.m. CT): named the sportsbook and time for every line; the pick is unchanged. Updated (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:39 p.m. CT): the Oklahoma–Mississippi State pick line now names the book for each number: the Oct. 21 spread (OU -4.5) was at DraftKings and Bovada, and the 44.5 total was at DraftKings. The pick is unchanged. Picks disclaimer.

Update (Fri, Oct. 23, 8:24 a.m. CT): Kamario Taylor remains questionable, with reports of growing optimism. Lines as of 8:23 AM CT Oct. 23 (VegasInsider): DraftKings OU -3 / 46.5, FanDuel OU -3.5 / 46.5, BetMGM OU -3.5 / 46.5. Pick unchanged at the time (score 23-20, superseded Oct. 24: now Oklahoma 25-22), pass on the spread and total. Clarified: State’s 31-0 loss at LSU was the first time it had been shut out since 2020.

Update (Sat, Oct. 24, 5:57 a.m. CT): Oklahoma 25-22, moved from 23-20 to match the 47.5 market total (DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5, seen at the 4:02 AM CT Sat run); still a pass on the spread and total. Kamario Taylor is still questionable; final SEC report due around 1 PM CT. Picks disclaimer.

Update (Sat, Oct. 24, 8:11 a.m. CT): injury text refreshed to the SEC’s Friday 7:10 p.m. CT report: Bothwell and Tillman are off the report and available, Isaac Smith is out, Oklahoma’s Xavier Robinson is out and Elijah Thomas is doubtful, and Taylor remains questionable. DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5 as of 8:11 a.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, then OU -1.5 / 48.5 as of 11:11 a.m. CT Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026. The pick and score are unchanged (Oklahoma 25-22, pass on the spread and total). Picks disclaimer.

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