Updated Sat Oct 24, 2026, 6:16 a.m. CT: Agreed by The Gambler and JR Handicapper (Rohn approved via Chief of Staff, Sat Oct 24, 6:11 a.m. CT); posted here Sat Oct 24, 6:16 a.m. CT. Tennessee/South Carolina: our straight-up pick is now South Carolina 26-25 (was Tennessee 28-25); still no play on the spread or the total. Everything else in this post is unchanged by this note.
Updated Sat Oct 24, 2026, 5:52 a.m. CT: Agreed by The Gambler and JR Handicapper Fri Oct 23 evening; posted here Sat Oct 24, 5:52 a.m. CT. Oklahoma/Mississippi State score moved to Oklahoma 25-22 (still a pass on the side and total); Ole Miss/Texas is now a pass on both the side and the total (Texas 29-25 unchanged); LSU/Auburn stays LSU 29-21, lean Under 51.5 (DraftKings); Texas A&M/Alabama stays Alabama 32-19, pass. Details in each game below. Older updates follow.
Updated Oct 22, 2026 (Thu.), 8:39 p.m. CT: DraftKings lines refreshed for every game (as of 8:12 p.m. CT Oct. 22); Oklahoma/Mississippi State is now a pass on both the spread and the total, Vanderbilt/Kentucky stays No Play, and Ole Miss/Texas is back to a slight lean Over 53.5 (DraftKings, 8:12 p.m. CT Oct. 22). Earlier (Oct 21): both of our Plays got knocked down to NO PLAY after new SP+ ratings came in, and Texas A&M/Alabama became a Pass. Details below.
รa c’est bon, y’all. T-Rohn done stirred the pot, tasted the roux, and here’s what’s simmerin’ for SEC Week 8, Saturday Oct. 24. Six SEC games, four teams on bye (Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Missouri), and the weather looks dry and mild everywhere, so no weather adjustments. We posted two Plays, three Leans and one Pass; as of the Oct. 21 update, both Plays are downgraded to No Play and the A&M/Alabama lean is now a Pass, so as of the Oct. 24 update we’re at one Lean (LSU/Auburn) and three Passes (Ole Miss/Texas, Texas A&M/Alabama, Oklahoma/Mississippi State). Every fan base gets the same spoon here.
The Plays (Downgraded: No Play)
Tennessee @ South Carolina (2:30 p.m. CT): Over 50.5 โ DOWNGRADED / NO PLAY (line as of Oct 20: 50.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel, 50-51 across books)
Both offenses grade out above average, Carolina plays fast (about 74 snaps a game), and the Gamecock defense has been giving up points this year. Our number lands near 53. Fair warning, cher: Tennessee’s games have gone Under 6 of 7, so this one’s got a little cayenne in it.
Update Oct 21: The roux thinned out. Fresh SP+ numbers rate Tennessee’s defense better, and our raw model total dropped from 59.4 to 55.8. That’s 5.05 points over the market’s 50.75 (best number 50.5 at DraftKings), but we only trust our model for 25% of the number and the market for 75%, so our projected total is 52.0 and the edge is down to 1.25 points. That’s a small tier-2 lean now, not a Play.
Line update (Oct. 22): DraftKings has the total at 50.5 (South Carolina -2.5) as of 8:12 p.m. CT Oct. 22, via VegasInsider. Pick unchanged. Picks disclaimer.
Updated Sat Oct 24, 6:16 a.m. CT: switched our straight-up pick to South Carolina 26-25 (was Tennessee 28-25). The model and the market (South Carolina -2.5, DraftKings, 4:02 AM CT Sat run) both favor South Carolina. Still no play on the spread or the total.
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (6:30 p.m. CT): Over 51.25 โ DOWNGRADED / NO PLAY (line as of Oct 20: 51.5 at DraftKings, 50.5-51 at most other books; consensus around 51.25)
Both defenses rate below average, and both teams have gone Over in 5 of 7. Our number sits about 52 (number updated 11:22 AM CT Oct. 24). Shop for the 51 if you can find it.
Update Oct 21: Kentucky’s defense got a better grade in the new SP+, and the total ticked up to 51.5 at both books we track, DraftKings and Bovada (as of 4:02 a.m. CT Oct. 21). Our edge shrank to 1.5 points. Call it a tier-3 lean, not a Play.
Line update (Oct. 22): DraftKings has the total at 52.5 (Kentucky -10.5) as of 8:12 p.m. CT Oct. 22, via VegasInsider.
Update Oct. 22 (8:12 p.m. CT): Kentucky 31-21. Pass on the side and No Play on the total at DraftKings UK -10.5 / 52.5 (8:12 PM CT Oct. 22). Picks disclaimer.
The Leans
Ole Miss @ Texas (6:30 p.m. CT): UPDATED Oct 24: PASS on the side and the total (was: lean Over 53.) (line as of Oct 20, 4:20 a.m. CT: 53.5 at DraftKings, 52.5 at Bovada; the 53 we posted was the midpoint of those two books, not a single book line. Shop for the 52.5.) The Rebel offense is one of the best in the country, and Texas EDGE Colin Simmons is OUT, per Thursday’s SEC availability report (via On3/Inside Texas). We like it, but not enough to call it a Play.
Update Oct 21: Lean Over 53.5, tier 1. The total climbed to 53.5 at both DraftKings and Bovada (as of 4:02 a.m. CT Oct. 21), and Ole Miss’s defense graded out better in the new SP+, so our edge is down to a thin 0.8 points. Still on the Over, just with a lighter hand on the pepper.
Update Oct 22: No Play at DraftKings 54.5 (as of 1:07 p.m. CT Oct. 22, via VegasInsider). Pick was made at 53.5; the thin lean Over returns at 53.5 or lower.
Line update (Oct. 22): DraftKings has the total at 53.5 (Texas -3.5) as of 8:12 p.m. CT Oct. 22, via VegasInsider.
Update Oct. 22 (8:12 p.m. CT): Texas 29-25. Pass on the side; slight lean Over 53.5 (DraftKings, 8:12 PM CT Oct. 22). Thin edge, and it’s No Play again if the total climbs back to 54.5. Picks disclaimer.
Update (agreed Fri Oct 23 evening; posted Sat Oct 24, 5:52 a.m. CT): After the SEC’s Friday availability report (posted 7:10 PM CT), Texas is without RB Hollywood Smothers, WR Kaliq Lockett, OL Jaydon Chatman and edge rushers Colin Simmons and Richard Wesley; Ole Miss C Brycen Sanders is probable (OL Jackson Christian is newly questionable for Texas). Keeping Texas 29-25, now passing on both the side (-3, DraftKings) and the total (53.5, DraftKings), lines per VegasInsider 7:29 PM CT Fri Oct 23.
Line update (Sat. Oct. 24, 11:11 a.m. CT): DraftKings has Texas -3 (-115), total 54.5 (Over -105 / Under -115), moneylines Texas -155 / Ole Miss +130, per ESPN’s DraftKings odds feed (VegasInsider’s DraftKings column matched), pulled 11:11 a.m. CT. Pick unchanged. Picks disclaimer.
LSU @ Auburn (11 a.m. CT): lean Under 50.5 โ UPDATED Oct 24: lean Under 51.5 (DraftKings). (line as of Oct 20, 4:20 a.m. CT: 50.5 at DraftKings and Bovada) The ratings line up with the spread almost exactly, and the totals model sits about a point low. Auburn’s coming off a huge win over Georgia, and the game after one of those can come out a little flat. Small lean only. Injury note (Oct 20, 7:15 PM CT): LSU WR Jackson Harris, who left the Mississippi State game with an ankle injury and was later seen in a walking boot, said Tuesday, "we'll be all good for this week." He expects to play; that is CONFIRMED as his on-record quote, not an official status (SEC availability report comes Wednesday). Sources: Tiger Rag, 247Sports.
Update Oct 21: Lean Under 51.25, tier 2. The total went up to 51.25 (51.5 at DraftKings), which hands us a better number on the Under. Auburn also dismissed All-SEC LB Xavier Atkins Monday night (AP), and we docked the Tigers a half-point for it. Edge is 1.05 points.
Line update (Oct. 22): DraftKings has the total at 51.5 (LSU -7) as of 8:12 p.m. CT Oct. 22, via VegasInsider. Pick unchanged. Picks disclaimer.
Update (agreed Fri Oct 23 evening; posted Sat Oct 24, 5:52 a.m. CT): After the SEC’s Friday availability report (7:10 PM CT Fri Oct 23), Auburn DL Saint Farrior is out. Keeping LSU 29-21, lean Under 51.5 (DraftKings, LSU -7, VegasInsider 7:29 PM CT Fri Oct 23).
Line update (Sat. Oct. 24, 11:11 a.m. CT): DraftKings has LSU -7 (-115), total 52.5 (Over -105 / Under -115), moneylines LSU -285 / Auburn +230, per ESPN’s DraftKings odds feed (VegasInsider’s DraftKings column matched the total and moneylines and showed LSU -7 at -118), pulled 11:11 a.m. CT; kickoff was 11 a.m. CT. Pick and lean unchanged as posted above. Picks disclaimer.
Texas A&M @ Alabama (2:30 p.m. CT): lean Over 50.5 โ UPDATED / PASS (line as of Oct 20, 4:20 a.m. CT: 50.5 at DraftKings and Bovada) Our side number is right on the market, and the total comes out about a point high. Mild lean, nothin’ spicier.
Update Oct 21: Now a PASS. Alabama’s SP+ rating fell after the loss at Tennessee, and our total edge is gone (0.4 points). Nothin’ left in the pot here.
Line update (Oct. 22): DraftKings has the total at 50.5 (Alabama -13.5) as of 8:12 p.m. CT Oct. 22, via VegasInsider. Pick unchanged. Picks disclaimer.
Update (posted Sat Oct 24, 5:52 a.m. CT): After the SEC’s Friday availability report (7:10 PM CT Fri Oct 23), Alabama’s Zabien Brown, EJ Crowell and Racin Delgatty are doubtful; A&M’s Mario Craver, DJ Hicks, Daymion Sanford and Trovon Baugh are probable. Keeping Alabama 32-19, pass at -13.5 / 50.5 (FanDuel and DraftKings, VegasInsider 7:29 PM CT Fri Oct 23).
Line update (Sat. Oct. 24, 11:11 a.m. CT): DraftKings has Alabama -13.5 (-112), total 49.5 (Over -115 / Under -105), moneylines Alabama -575 / Texas A&M +425, per ESPN’s DraftKings odds feed (VegasInsider’s DraftKings column matched), pulled 11:11 a.m. CT. Pick unchanged. Picks disclaimer.
The Pass
Oklahoma @ Mississippi State (2:30 p.m. CT): PASS, pending QB status (lean MSU +4) โ UPDATED Oct 24: Oklahoma 25-22, pass spread/total (line as of Oct 20, 4:20 a.m. CT: MSU +4 at DraftKings and Bovada) This whole game depends on Bulldog QB Kamario Taylor, REPORTED day-to-day with turf toe. The line went from MSU +2 (midpoint of the DraftKings and Bovada openers) to +4 (DraftKings and Bovada, 4:21 a.m. CT Oct. 20), so the market’s pricing him out, but our ratings see a near coin flip. No Play until the official availability report. Disclosure: T-Rohn leans Mississippi State here, so take that lean with a grain of Tony’s.
Update Oct 21: Our call is Oklahoma 23-20. We pass on the spread (OU -4.5 at DraftKings and Bovada, total 44.5 at DraftKings, as of 4:02 a.m. CT Oct. 21) and on the total, with a slight lean to the Under 44.5. OU’s elite defense against a better State offense, plus home field, makes this about a field goal, and Taylor’s questionable status (Wednesday report) is the whole edge. We re-decide after Thursday’s availability report.
Update Oct. 22 (8:12 p.m. CT): Still Oklahoma 23-20. We pass on the spread at DraftKings OU -3, which lands right on our 3-point projection, and we pass on the total, dropping the slight Under 44.5 lean. Pick made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings); DraftKings now OU -3 / 46.5 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22 (via VegasInsider; DraftKings had moved to -5.5 Thursday afternoon). Picks disclaimer.
Update (Sat. Oct. 24, 5:52 a.m. CT): Moved the score to Oklahoma 25-22 to match the 47.5 market total (DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5, seen at the 4:02 AM CT Sat run); still a pass on the side and total. Injury update (official SEC availability report, posted 1:00 p.m. CT Sat Oct. 24; added here Sat Oct. 24, 1:39 p.m. CT): Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor is available. Oklahoma DB Eli Bowen and WR Elijah Thomas are out; OL Heath Ozaeta and OL Michael Fasusi are available. Our pick and score are unchanged.
Line update (Sat. Oct. 24, 11:11 a.m. CT): DraftKings has Oklahoma -1.5 (-112), total 48.5 (Over -108 / Under -112), moneylines Oklahoma -122 / Mississippi State +102, per ESPN’s DraftKings odds feed (VegasInsider’s DraftKings column matched), pulled 11:11 a.m. CT. Pick and score unchanged. Picks disclaimer.
Update Oct 21: T-Rohn’s full preview made the call at Oklahoma 23-20, pass spread/total (our score moved to Oklahoma 25-22 on Sat Oct. 24, see the Oklahoma update above; Under 44.5 lean at DraftKings dropped Oct. 22; pick made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings); DraftKings now OU -3 / 46.5 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22) โ https://gridirongumbo.com/oklahoma-at-mississippi-state-preview-2026/.
Honest note from the kitchen: five of our six totals leans point Over, and our totals numbers have run a little high this year. Treat these as small edges, not locks.
For entertainment only, not betting advice. Injury info is REPORTED unless marked official. These picks may be updated until each game’s kickoff.
Correction (Oct. 22, 2026): Texas EDGE Colin Simmons’ status changed from doubtful (Wed.) to out (Thu.). Updated (Oct. 22, 2026): Ole Miss–Texas total moved to 54.5 at DraftKings (1:07 p.m. CT, via VegasInsider); pick changed to No Play. Updated (Oct. 22, 2026): DraftKings lines refreshed for every game as of 8:12 p.m. CT (via VegasInsider); Oklahoma-Mississippi State now a pass on both the spread and the total (Under 44.5 lean dropped; pick made Oct. 21 at OU -4.5 (DraftKings and Bovada), total 44.5 (DraftKings); DraftKings now OU -3 / 46.5 as of 8:03 PM CT Oct. 22). Updated (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:32 p.m. CT): The Gambler and JR re-decided two picks. Vanderbilt–Kentucky: Kentucky 31-21, pass on the side and No Play on the total at DraftKings UK -10.5 / 52.5 (8:12 PM CT Oct. 22). Ole Miss–Texas: Texas 29-25, pass on the side, slight lean Over 53.5 (DraftKings, 8:12 PM CT Oct. 22), replacing the No Play above. We also named the sportsbook and time for every line in this post. Picks disclaimer. Updated (Oct. 22, 2026, 8:39 p.m. CT): the Oklahoma–Mississippi State pick line now names the book for each number: the Oct. 21 spread (OU -4.5) was at DraftKings and Bovada, and the 44.5 total was at DraftKings. The pick is unchanged. Updated (Sat. Oct. 24, 2026, 5:52 a.m. CT): agreed by The Gambler and JR Handicapper Fri Oct. 23 evening, posted 5:52 a.m. CT Sat. Oklahoma–Mississippi State score moved to Oklahoma 25-22, still a pass on the side and total (DraftKings OU -2.5 / 47.5, 4:02 AM CT Sat run); Ole Miss–Texas total call changed from slight lean Over 53.5 to Pass, with the side still a pass (DraftKings -3 / 53.5, VegasInsider 7:29 PM CT Fri Oct. 23), Texas 29-25 unchanged; LSU–Auburn total corrected to 51.5 (DraftKings, VegasInsider 7:29 PM CT Fri Oct. 23), lean Under and LSU 29-21 unchanged; Alabama–Texas A&M availability note added, Alabama 32-19 and pass unchanged. Updated (Sat. Oct. 24, 2026, 11:11 a.m. CT): DraftKings lines refreshed for Oklahoma–Mississippi State, Ole Miss–Texas, LSU–Auburn and Texas A&M–Alabama (market numbers only, per ESPN’s DraftKings odds feed, cross-checked with VegasInsider); no pick, lean or score changed. Picks disclaimer.